Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #MudSeason
Most recents (5)
1/ Soil moisture update: While #MudSeason is "officially over", locally heavy rain can and will degrade trafficability for periods of time. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ BLUF: Updated soil moisture/trafficability matrix similar to 25 April forecast with a 1 month delay in seasonal drying conditions due to above average April rain. Last week of May had several thunderstorm days & locally heavy rain but overall dry conditions since May 1st. 
3/ As stated in previous tweet, some locations had heavy rain including eastern Kherson/northwest Zaporizhzhia, northeast Donetsk and southern Luhansk in the last week of May. However, June has been mostly rain free.
1. Soil Moisture Update: 15 May 2023, a #NAFOWeather🧵
I'm "officially" declaring #MudSeason over based on limited rainfall since May 1st & marginal rain forecast in the next 2 weeks. Soil is dry enough to support most vehicles across most of the LoC.
I'm "officially" declaring #MudSeason over based on limited rainfall since May 1st & marginal rain forecast in the next 2 weeks. Soil is dry enough to support most vehicles across most of the LoC.
2. Recent Rainfall (past 2 weeks): Donetsk and Luhansk received about 5-15 mm rain of on May 8-9, otherwise, a dry 2 weeks.
3. Soil Moisture Change (past 2 weeks): There has been a general soil drying trend from 30 April to 14 May with least moisture in the south and greatest soil moisture in Donetsk.
1. Soil Moisture #MudSeason Update: 8 May 2023
#NAFOWeather 🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall.
#NAFOWeather 🧵
The past 7 days have been dry (yay!) along the Line of Conflict (LoC) after April's significant rainfall.
2. ECMWF model rainfall forecast for the next week shows 5-20 mm totals with largest rain amounts in southeast Donetsk and Luhansk. While ECMWF has been annoying me with alternating high/low rain predictions, it seems to be consistent the past couple model runs.
3. Impact to Soil Moisture and Trafficability: As you might expect, greatest trafficability degradation is in Donetsk/Luhansk while the impact of rainfall to trafficability is minimal in the south (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia). The longer term drying trend resumes after May 11. /end
1/ It has been almost a month since I provided a #MudSeason trafficability forecast. My assumption of a "normal" spring rainfall & improving trafficability were way too optimistic as it has rained Every. Damn. Day. since late March 2023. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ #BLUF The trafficability forecast (below) is based on current and predicted rainfall which are well above normal for near the Line of Conflict (LoC). In general, trafficability is delayed about 1 month versus normal.
3/ Some input on #MudSeason from authoritative sources: @DefenceHQ "severe mud is highly likely slowing operations vor both sides" but "conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks".
1/ Back on March 2, 2023, @DefenceHQ declared it to be #MudSeason, Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement (CCM)/trafficability. This #NAFOWeather🧵 looks at when soil will dry sufficiently to support offensive operations.
2/ Most of the techniques referenced in the analysis originate from the #NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM). Documents describing the NRMM are public domain.
Cite: slideshare.net/QuestSystems/a…
Cite: slideshare.net/QuestSystems/a…
3/ Processes which control vehicle trafficability are ground pressure exerted by vehicles and strength of soil. As soil dries, it can support a greater load. In addition to military applications, agriculture and land managers assess soil strength to minimize impact to vegetation.
