Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Monetary
Most recents (24)
Transition towards a #sustainable (solarpunk) #future? Then we first have to rewrite the rules of the game. The creation of #money, political economics and its rules are designed in such way it will always concentrate power within the same elite. 
It doesn’t matter much which #governance model you have as long as any system depends on so called neutral central #banks issuing money and commercial banks granting debt. You ll always have a system that creates #inequality, exploitation & destruction.
We should rewrite the rules, #monetary policy should be a key #political topic. I made this #comic once to show alternative rules about ownership of land, hoarding and speculation and land-use. A #Georgist approach.
[1/🧵] A short synopsis of Joachim Nagel's most recent speech on the future of #economic and #monetary union, presented and released by @OMFIF (@OMFIFDMI). 👇
[2/7] Joachim Nagel, a member of the @bundesbank's Executive Board, discusses:
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
[3/7] According to Nagel, the ongoing #energy #crisis in #Ukraine has resulted in:
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
[1/🧵] @DigiEuro interviewed @moderndosh and @AntonyWelfare on the @Ripple #CBDC-Manager software.
The underlying private #CBDC-ledger based on #XRPL was also heavily discussed.
I summarized the most of the interview for you, along with my personal comments. 🧵👇
The underlying private #CBDC-ledger based on #XRPL was also heavily discussed.
I summarized the most of the interview for you, along with my personal comments. 🧵👇
[2/19] To begin, if you are completely unfamiliar with #CBDCs and the #Ripple solution, here is a nice place to start:
[3/19] One important reason for using a private version of the public #XRPL is that a central #bank needs to be able to control the #money supply.
Why use a private ledger ❓
▶️ Central banks and #governments must be able to mint and destroy #currencies.
Why use a private ledger ❓
▶️ Central banks and #governments must be able to mint and destroy #currencies.
[1/🧵] With all of the #XRPBuyback debate going on, there is one aspect that frequently gets misrepresented
▶️ People conflating the terms "#price" and "#value"
Because the definitions differ, it is essential to comprehend the distinctions
Let us evaluate it more closely. 👇🧵
▶️ People conflating the terms "#price" and "#value"
Because the definitions differ, it is essential to comprehend the distinctions
Let us evaluate it more closely. 👇🧵
Today's #blogpost discusses #Grantham's recent comments on the #SuperBubble's final act. Is that the case, or is this time different?
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
We find ourselves at the crossroads where #markets and #fundamental realities meet. From this point, the outlook for equities over the next 9-12 months is more #bearish than #bullish.
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
realinvestmentadvice.com/superbubbles-t…
Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.
Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today
Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market
Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready
🤓🧵
Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today
Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market
Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready
🤓🧵
#CPI prints:
#UK YoY
Actual
9.4%
Forecast
9.3%
Previous
9.1%
#UK MoM
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
0.7%
#Canada YoY
Actual
8.1%
Forecast
8.4%
Previous
7.7%
#Canada MoM
Actual
0.7%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
1.4%
Let's unpack it briefly
#UK YoY
Actual
9.4%
Forecast
9.3%
Previous
9.1%
#UK MoM
Actual
0.8%
Forecast
0.7%
Previous
0.7%
#Canada YoY
Actual
8.1%
Forecast
8.4%
Previous
7.7%
#Canada MoM
Actual
0.7%
Forecast
0.9%
Previous
1.4%
Let's unpack it briefly
With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high
FT opinion article: “Let the Fed put money where it is really needed”. She means CBDC. The problem is that the Fed now needs to take money away, not add to it. This is not going to end well. Thread #Fed #monetary policy #markets #bonds #equities ft.com/content/0c8636…
1/The author argues that the Fed has overreached its mission. It has fuelled a shadow banking system and an asset bubble and will now have to create a recession in order to control inflation.
2/And politicians have been happy to outsource the decisions because they can then claim they are not to blame. The Fed is being asked to do stuff it is not qualified to do (same as the Supreme Court).
Last Thursday (s. ; or for the full live stream, s. ), @SevimDagdelen from #DieLinke has discussed with @RaniaKhalek & @EugenePuryear esp. the recently decided & billion-dollar rearmament of the German #Bundeswehr...
...as a result of the #RussianFederation's military invasion of #Ukraine, as officially justified by the #GermanFederalGovernment. A recommendable interview! Besides her opposition to such rearmament & the associated fundamental departure...
...from the so-called „#Entspannungspolitik“ established by #WillyBrand & #EgonBahr for #Germany's relationship with the #USSR (& also its territorially largest & politically strongest successor state in the form of the #RussianFederation),...
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
September witnessed a somewhat disappointing nonfarm #payroll gain of 194,000 jobs, which was weaker than the upwardly revised August gain of 365,000 and was well below #economists’ consensus estimates of nearly 490,000 jobs.
Clearly, there are significant #labor supply issues limiting the pace of recovery. Further, the #unemployment rate declined meaningfully, from 5.2% to 4.8% in Sept, and average hourly #earnings saw gains of 0.62% m-o-m, which brings the measure to 4.58% greater on a y-o-y basis.
The most interesting part of today’s #JobsReport, and much of the other recent #economic/corporate data, is that it’s the supply of resources that’s creating systemic pricing pressure, as well as consequently dulling growth of an #economy not lacking demand in virtually any area.
As expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee continued to discuss its plans to reduce, or #taper, the pace of its #AssetPurchase program at yesterday’s meeting.
While the details of this discussion were fairly sparse, the Committee statement did state that: “If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Further, at the recent #Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and at the press conference, Fed #ChairPowell emphasized that both he and most Committee participants now consider the test of “substantial further progress” toward the #inflation mandate to be largely satisfied.
It was 73 degrees and sunny in #JacksonHole, Wyoming, today; a perfect day for all those who were there….
Yet, there were no #monetary policy officials present at the traditional location of the @KansasCityFed’s late-summer #economic policy symposium, since they were conducting a “virtual symposium.”
That symposium provided #ChairPowell the opportunity to lay out a reasonably sunny perspective on the U.S. #economy, but also one that was not out of the woods yet, in terms of Covid variant risk and a maximum #employment target still to be achieved.
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: authors.elsevier.com/c/1dDlMbZedt0om #TGVAR 1/n
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n
More conspiracy theory from Financial Times:
"With a new US admin., & [] the vaccination rollout under way, now is a good time for the major economies of the west (& ideally the world) to sit down & devise a new international #monetary order."
#GreatReset h/t @johnsteppling
"With a new US admin., & [] the vaccination rollout under way, now is a good time for the major economies of the west (& ideally the world) to sit down & devise a new international #monetary order."
#GreatReset h/t @johnsteppling
"As part of that there should be widespread #debt cancellation, especially the gov't debt held by #central #banks. We estimate that amounts to approximately $25tn of gov't debt in the major regions of the global economy."
ft.com/content/39c53b…
ft.com/content/39c53b…
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
In the 2021's first issue of #Cantillon Effects, we discussed the #inflation which now pervades our lives: not just the narrow, disputed one relating to goods prices, but the inflation of rhetoric, passions, tribalism & despotism.
Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x
Over this thread, we'll present our case:-
1/x
Replacing the "public square" with the "cyber swarm" has not been conducive to reason or civility, for all that it has opened up new possibilities of disseminating news and opinion.
2/x
2/x
The #stakeholder capitalism being built while we're confined to quarters is a world where, we're glibly assured, " you will (truly) own nothing - the #centralbank will ensure your fake asset's notional price is misleadingly high - and you'll be happy!" Really?
3/x
3/x
Basics of learning #Bitcoin
A tremendous amount of ink has been spilled discussing the supposed quandary of the #equity market’s robust recovery since March, while at the same time #economic improvement has been more uneven and uncertain.
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Core #CPI surprised to the upside, driving a solid gain in headline #inflation as well. The strength in the July report was driven by components impacted by #Covid unwinding some of their previous large declines and bouncing back from depressed levels.
We saw solid gains in transportation services components, such as #airfares, motor vehicle #insurance and rental #cars, which reflect that bounce back.
The #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the crisis have credibly bridged the #economic gap caused by the unprecedented lockdowns, yet as #inflation deficiencies were already present pre-Covid, it’s likely that #policy will need to remain supportive for some time.
The Chinese #economy stayed on the hot side in 2002-2011. The average #GDP deflator was 4.6%; the real #interestrates was lower than the neutral one. But since 2012, the economy was on the cold side, with the average GDP deflator falling to 2.1% in 2012-2019...1/6
The real interest rate was lower than the neutral one in 2002-2011. During this period, although #monetary policies remained tight with an overall fiscal surplus, there was still room for further tightening both monetary and fiscal policies when we look back now...2/6
In 2012-2019, it was completely the opposite. GDP deflator was low and the real interest rate was higher than neutral. Monetary policy was relatively loose...3/6
