Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DeGea
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#MCIMUN LA FINAL AGRIA DE LA #FACup
Como siempre se está reduciendo todo a un jugador. Vamos a echarle la culpa a uno de todo lo malo que pasó hoy.
De Gea tuvo culpabilidad en el 2do gol y su distribución fue pobre (de nuevo), pero lo que me preocupa realmente es el sistema.#MUFC
Como siempre se está reduciendo todo a un jugador. Vamos a echarle la culpa a uno de todo lo malo que pasó hoy.
De Gea tuvo culpabilidad en el 2do gol y su distribución fue pobre (de nuevo), pero lo que me preocupa realmente es el sistema.#MUFC
No digo que sea culpa de Ten Hag, la plantilla era limitada, pero la ausencia de referencias por afuera para mantener la estructura del equipo dejó al #MUFC sin su mejor chance de retener ⚽️ arriba.
Lo sacrificó para poblar el medio, y realmente no funcionó. Ni soga ni cabra. 🤷♂️
Lo sacrificó para poblar el medio, y realmente no funcionó. Ni soga ni cabra. 🤷♂️
Sin Antony, ni Garnacho/Rashford para jugar por fuera, definitivamente el plan A del DT para ganar este partido, se descartó antes del 0'.
El plan B iba a requerir potencia y despliegue, algo que Eriksen no puede presumir ahora. Pero su salida y ⚽️ quieta lo mantenían en cancha.
El plan B iba a requerir potencia y despliegue, algo que Eriksen no puede presumir ahora. Pero su salida y ⚽️ quieta lo mantenían en cancha.
DETRÁS DEL SUEÑO (AÚN) INALCANZABLE
Leo los reportes desde dentro del #MUFC sobre el DT dando la derecha para que David De Gea siga en el club y no me sorprende en lo absoluto.
Y creo que tiene mucho que ver con Dave pero más con el contexto del equipo. Breve 🧵 de análisis 👇
Leo los reportes desde dentro del #MUFC sobre el DT dando la derecha para que David De Gea siga en el club y no me sorprende en lo absoluto.
Y creo que tiene mucho que ver con Dave pero más con el contexto del equipo. Breve 🧵 de análisis 👇
¿QUÉ TIENEN QUE VER ELLOS CON DDG?
Más de lo que imaginas. Lo 1ro es aclarar que Ten Hag no está jugando como en Ajax. Quiere pero no tiene las piezas.
Se adaptó a la capacidad de contra del #ManUtd e impuso su idea hasta donde pudo para tener mejor forma.
Analicemos al resto.
Más de lo que imaginas. Lo 1ro es aclarar que Ten Hag no está jugando como en Ajax. Quiere pero no tiene las piezas.
Se adaptó a la capacidad de contra del #ManUtd e impuso su idea hasta donde pudo para tener mejor forma.
Analicemos al resto.
Las posibles llegadas están limitadas por el nuevo FFP. Ante la incertidumbre por nuevos dueños, no hay un claro camino en formación de plantilla.
🤔¿Cómo vender a los que no quiere el DT?
🤔¿Será Murtough o habrá nuevo Director Deportivo?
🤔¿Cuánto $ realmente está disponible?
🤔¿Cómo vender a los que no quiere el DT?
🤔¿Será Murtough o habrá nuevo Director Deportivo?
🤔¿Cuánto $ realmente está disponible?
#DeGea showing how to deal with a long range 1v1!
He initially stays deep & therefore doesn’t gift an easy chip/sidefoot finish by maximising his reaction time!
But once #Antonio takes the additional touch #DDG rushes out quickly & forms the block & snuffs out the shot!
#MUFC
He initially stays deep & therefore doesn’t gift an easy chip/sidefoot finish by maximising his reaction time!
But once #Antonio takes the additional touch #DDG rushes out quickly & forms the block & snuffs out the shot!
#MUFC
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
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#DeGea continues to be one of the best GKs vs long range 1v1s!
When #Anthony gets in #DeGea doesn’t rush out & gift an easy finish but holds deep & let’s his def recover & pressure the ball!
DDGs top decision making turned a 37% goal probability situation into a 16% one!
#MUFC
When #Anthony gets in #DeGea doesn’t rush out & gift an easy finish but holds deep & let’s his def recover & pressure the ball!
DDGs top decision making turned a 37% goal probability situation into a 16% one!
#MUFC
Gks, don’t always deal with these situations well & often panic & rush out allowing strikers to either chip it over them or curl it round them
Staying calm & letting your defenders pressure the ball & only rushing out once the striker is closer to goal is a vital skill to master
Staying calm & letting your defenders pressure the ball & only rushing out once the striker is closer to goal is a vital skill to master
The #PremierLeague is back!
How has your team’s GK performed?
#Pickford’s class shot stopping & distribution puts him top 🏴
#Pope, #Henderson, & #Leno have had great starts at their new clubs🧤
Big mistakes have cost #DeGea & #Ramsdale 😱
#Ward has struggled in all areas 😞
How has your team’s GK performed?
#Pickford’s class shot stopping & distribution puts him top 🏴
#Pope, #Henderson, & #Leno have had great starts at their new clubs🧤
Big mistakes have cost #DeGea & #Ramsdale 😱
#Ward has struggled in all areas 😞
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
A GK’s handling ability is vital & often under analysed!
Here #DeGea showed how handling can determine a game’s outcome when he parried a 49mph central shot into danger & the rebound was scored!
xRebound xG = 0.09
Actual Rebound xG = 0.47
xG added due to poor handling = 0.38
Here #DeGea showed how handling can determine a game’s outcome when he parried a 49mph central shot into danger & the rebound was scored!
xRebound xG = 0.09
Actual Rebound xG = 0.47
xG added due to poor handling = 0.38
My handling model uses historic shot data to gauge how often certain shots should be expected to be caught, parried away from danger, & parried into danger in combination with a none shot xG model which assesses how likely rebounds are to be scored based on the parry location
My model found that due the shot’s lower than avg velocity & central trajectory an avg PL GK would expect to parry the ball into an area which resulted in a goal from the rebound only 9% of the time whereas #DeGea pushed it into an area which results in a goal 47% of the time!
My 1st @goalkeeper_com piece:
How many goals were the big 6 GKs worth vs the avg #PL GK?
#Alisson was worth ~19 goals! What more does a GK have to do to get #POTY!
#DeGea was the best shot stopper but his weak shot prevention & distribution meant he was only worth ~3 goals!
How many goals were the big 6 GKs worth vs the avg #PL GK?
#Alisson was worth ~19 goals! What more does a GK have to do to get #POTY!
#DeGea was the best shot stopper but his weak shot prevention & distribution meant he was only worth ~3 goals!
#DeGea struggles with close range 1v1s continue!
His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
My model finds that if #DeGea had engaged the 1st touch the chance would’ve been 0.64 ExG because even though the 1v1 is quite far from goal engaging in that location would make the GK very vulnerable to the chip, sidefoot finish, and being rounded.
THREAD:
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Shot Stopping:
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
Shot Stopping:
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
Last night was rough for #DeGea
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!
#MUFC #UCL #ATAMUN
#MUFC #UCL #ATAMUN
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.
Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.
He needed to be on top of the CF!
Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.
He needed to be on top of the CF!
#DeGea’s ability to deal with crosses has quite rightly been criticised.
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson of #LFC has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses & #Alisson has played 90 fewer minutes!
This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Additionally #DeGea’s sweeping numbers have also been low this season.
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 4 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.07 ExG every game!
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 4 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.07 ExG every game!
This is my favourite #DeGea #UCL save from yesterday
Because it didn’t require athleticism or reflexes it required calmness & good decision making!
38% of the time a 1v1 in that position results in a goal but after DDGs decision to rush back to his line & wait this falls to 7%!
Because it didn’t require athleticism or reflexes it required calmness & good decision making!
38% of the time a 1v1 in that position results in a goal but after DDGs decision to rush back to his line & wait this falls to 7%!
#DeGea showed you don’t need to start deep to get into such a position, he was over 12yrd out & was ready to sweep if he had to but because he made the decision to drop & react so quickly & confidently he managed to use his wonderful fast footwork to get back in time.
#MUFC #UCL
#MUFC #UCL
This save is another example of how the best GKs in the world make difficult moments look easy & make finishes harder for strikers & thus force them into hitting poor inaccurate shots
If you are interested in where my %’s come they are calculated by my 1v1 model see thread below
If you are interested in where my %’s come they are calculated by my 1v1 model see thread below
#DeGea is one of the best GKs in the #PremierLeague when dealing with long range 1v1s & the save vs #Armstrong was great!
He knew AA was ~15yrd out so it would take a top finish to beat him so he didn’t need to rush out or gamble as that would only make AA’s finish easier
#MUFC
He knew AA was ~15yrd out so it would take a top finish to beat him so he didn’t need to rush out or gamble as that would only make AA’s finish easier
#MUFC
It may look like a simple save in the end but that’s all down to #DeGea’s excellent decision making which massively reduces the chance quality
The composure DDG showed to stay deep to his line & not over commit early isn’t common, even in the #PremierLeague
Such top goalkeeping
The composure DDG showed to stay deep to his line & not over commit early isn’t common, even in the #PremierLeague
Such top goalkeeping
De Gea gestern mit guten Beispiel dafür, wieso eine hohe Position noch lange keine hohe Reichweite sein muss. Da er am Fünfer steht und relativ lange dort bleibt ehe er sich absetzt, hat er hier ein vermeidbares Gegentor kassiert.
#Keeperanalyse #VILMUN #MUFC #UELfinal
#Keeperanalyse #VILMUN #MUFC #UELfinal
Durch ein früheres Absetzen nach hinten hätte er sich mehr Reaktionszeit verschaffen können und den Ball vermutlich halten können. So steht #DeGea im Nirgendwo und kann weder den Raum verteidigen, noch Druck auf den Schützen ausüben.
#VILMUN #MUFC #UELfinal
#VILMUN #MUFC #UELfinal
Grundsätzlich bin ich bei Szenen aus dem Spiel heraus ein Fan von mutig positionierten Keepern. Es ist sogar unabdingbar, dass sie höher stehen und den Raum hinter der Abwehrkette proaktiv sichern.
What a save from #DeGea
Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment
It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!
Not many GKs could make such a good decision
#MUFC #MUNFUL
Unbelievably calm GKing in a crucial moment
It may look like a simple save but that’s all because of his exemplary decision to use the wait & react 1v1 strategy as the 1v1 was from long range!
Not many GKs could make such a good decision
#MUFC #MUNFUL
The striker was ~16 yrds from the centre of goal & at a pretty wide angle (hard to see from the photo) so #DeGea’s decision to stay deep made the finish very difficult as he didn’t rush out & gift a simple dink/rounded finish
The great thing about #DeGea’s positioning here is that if the striker takes a touch rather than shooting he’s far enough off his line & prepared & ready to engage then, only once he knows the striker is so close to goal that he can no longer trust his reactions to make the save!
#PremierLeague Shotstopping Performance Graphic:
#Ederson #Areola #Martinez & #Sanchez have been class 🔥
#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄
Despite criticism #Ramsdale #Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
#Ederson #Areola #Martinez & #Sanchez have been class 🔥
#Henderson has outperformed #DeGea when it comes to shotstopping 🔄
Despite criticism #Ramsdale #Pickford & #Guaita have performed at a roughly average top flight level 👀
Explanation of ExSaves:
ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
ExSaves are calculated by looking at every shot a GK faces & using the shots distance, angle, trajectory, final location, the number of defenders in the way + other things & using historical data to find the probability that an avg PL GK makes the save...
...Therefore as a rough example a shot from 40yrds at a tight angle that goes down the middle of goal with all the teams defenders behind the ball may have an ExSave of 99% whereas a central 1v1 from 10yrds fired into the bottom corner may have an ExSave of 10%.
#DeGea’s penalty record hasn’t been good recently & while the sample size is too small to conclude he’s bad at them his technique does seem flawed.
Preshot he pulls his foot inward in the opposite direction to his dive meaning he will always struggle to reach the corner!
#UEL
Preshot he pulls his foot inward in the opposite direction to his dive meaning he will always struggle to reach the corner!
#UEL
This “negative step” means his footwork actually moves him further from the corner he wants to dive to rather than closer to it!
Therefore using this technique he will always at struggle to get across to penalties which are right in the corner even if he goes the correct way!
Therefore using this technique he will always at struggle to get across to penalties which are right in the corner even if he goes the correct way!
Ironically #Henderson’s is one of the best GKs I’ve seen at using a strong “positive” step when facing PKs
Look at the ground he makes up preshot!
This means he can dive all the way to the corner & thus if he goes the right way he has a great chance of saving it!
#UEL
Look at the ground he makes up preshot!
This means he can dive all the way to the corner & thus if he goes the right way he has a great chance of saving it!
#UEL
THREAD:
#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!
He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!
That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!
#Henderson’s shot prevention has been class in his first 8 #PremierLeague games & its played a big part in #ManchesterUnited’s success!
He is preventing 3.07 chances occurring per game corresponding to ~0.44 ExG per game!
That’s double #DeGea’s ExG prevented per game!
Here I will compare #Henderson’s cross claiming & sweeping (the two branches of shot prevention) so far this year to #DeGea’s & discuss how this has affected #ManchesterUnited’s defence.
I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!
I will use my shot prevention model as sadly mainstream models miss many important actions!
Sweeping:
#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!
So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)
#Henderson’s sweeping has been highlighted after his tidy display vs #THFC & it wasn’t a one off!
So far this year for #ManchesterUnited he has prevented 11 opposition chances occurring by sweeping which corresponds to preventing 0.15 ExG/90 (#PL avg is 0.10 ExG/90)
#Henderson’s cross claiming has been exceptional in his first 5 #PremierLeague appearances
#Henderson boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average #PL GK!
His claiming is preventing #ManchesterUnited conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!
#MUFC
#Henderson boasts a 100% claim success rate while being twice as active the average #PL GK!
His claiming is preventing #ManchesterUnited conceding chances worth ~0.4 ExG per game!
#MUFC
For comparison, #DeGea cross claiming numbers this year are:
Chances Prevented = 0.81
(Only 41% of DH)
ExG Prevented = 0.15
(Only 35% of DH)
Average Claim Distance = 4.5yrd (Only 78% of DH)
Claim Success = 95%
(95% of DH)
Catch Fraction = 58%
(104% of DH)
#ManchesterUnited
Chances Prevented = 0.81
(Only 41% of DH)
ExG Prevented = 0.15
(Only 35% of DH)
Average Claim Distance = 4.5yrd (Only 78% of DH)
Claim Success = 95%
(95% of DH)
Catch Fraction = 58%
(104% of DH)
#ManchesterUnited
For more information on the metrics I quote in the graphics above please see this thread, it explains how I calculate which cross claims prevent chances & which don’t & how I assign ExG values to each claim & why it’s important to look deeper than “total high balls claimed”!
THREAD:
Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?
Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year!
Have #DeGea’s cross claiming & sweeping numbers changed dramatically this season in comparison to last season?
Below I will look into #DeGea’s sweeping & cross claiming performance in the 19/20 #PremierLeague season & compare it with his performance so far this year!
Claiming 19/20:
#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Key points
• Attempts to claim infrequently
• Mostly successful when he does attempt to claim
#MUFC
#DeGea prevented 0.77 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Average #PremierLeague GK prevents 1.10 chances per 90 occurring by claiming crosses
Key points
• Attempts to claim infrequently
• Mostly successful when he does attempt to claim
#MUFC
#DeGea’s ability to stop close range 1v1s has dropped off greatly recently:
Year-Save%
17/18-61%
18/19-33%
19/20-30%
He often chooses the optimum 1v1 technique he just gets the execution wrong!
Last night he failed to ground his foot & thus the ball squirmed under him
#MUNPSG
Year-Save%
17/18-61%
18/19-33%
19/20-30%
He often chooses the optimum 1v1 technique he just gets the execution wrong!
Last night he failed to ground his foot & thus the ball squirmed under him
#MUNPSG
JWP’s FK is class & it would have been difficult for #DeGea to save regardless but yet again he gives himself no chance by getting his body shape wrong given his positioning
He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!
#SOUMUN
He needs to start higher off his line so his body angle doesn’t force him to dive into the goal!
#SOUMUN
If #DeGea stands ~1yrd forwards he will be able to cover the wall side without diving backwards into his goal + it won’t hinder his ability to defend his side as while it will cut his reaction time slightly the distance to the far post is such that it won’t make a big difference.
If #DeGea moved too far forwards (ie 2 to 3 yards) then obviously it would make high saves to his side difficult & cut his reaction time by a substantial amount thus make any save more tricky but I’m not suggesting such a big change.
Last year #Guaita only saved 36% of the close range 1v1s he faced (only #Kepa & #DeGea were lower)
This is because he rarely forms a premeditated barrier before the shot is struck so gives himself no chance of making the save!
This weakness was exposed again tonight.
#PALNEW
This is because he rarely forms a premeditated barrier before the shot is struck so gives himself no chance of making the save!
This weakness was exposed again tonight.
#PALNEW
When shots are from close range there is simply not enough time for a GK to react therefore they have to get close to the striker & form a premeditated barrier & shrink the effective goal area & force the striker to “just hit the ball at them”
As the images below show
As the images below show
I analysed 800+ 1v1s in the #PremierLeague last year & using a logistic regression model found that the engage & react strategy that #Guiata regularly employs gives a GK a far lower chance of making the save vs the engage & block & the engage & spread premediated strategies.
