Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Contraction
Most recents (2)
Key Takeaways from Month in Macro
1. Nominal #GDP slowed through April, with real GDP contracting by -0.47% and #inflation rising by 0.23%. #Nominal GDP has grown approximately 4.7% from one year prior, continuing the downtrend beginning in February 2022.
1. Nominal #GDP slowed through April, with real GDP contracting by -0.47% and #inflation rising by 0.23%. #Nominal GDP has grown approximately 4.7% from one year prior, continuing the downtrend beginning in February 2022.
2. During this time, #equity markets have posed significant strength (though lopsided), while #treasury markets have weakened in unison.
3. Looking forward, these sequential improvements have adjusted our #real growth outlook, with a #contraction in yearly real GDP growth more likely in H1 2024 than in Q4 2023. Our #inflation outlook remains one of resilient inflation.
1/3. A thread on ballpark estimate of -1% China growth shock, IF really bad chain reactions as some China commentaries suggesting
#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to
#US and the rest of the world?
#Evergrande Fallout LEADS To
#Real #Estate #Contraction -10% LEADS To
#China #GDP -1% LEADS to
#US and the rest of the world?
2/3. IMF paper @KamiarMohaddes etc. estimated in 2016, w. -1% China growth shock
GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%
imf.org/external/pubs/…
GLOBAL growth - 0.23%.
#INDIA will be least impacted.
#ASEAN-5 countries (except Philippines), ranging between -0.23% and -0.35%
#EURO Area -0.12%
#UK -0.04%
#US -0.07%
imf.org/external/pubs/…
3/3. Caveats: written 2016. Estimates Statistical with wide band. China has further integrated with the world where it BOTH imports and exports significantly. Hope Prof. @KamiarMohaddes keep updating as it will be called up frequently next 30 years
