Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ConsumerConfidence
Most recents (4)
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. 
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector.
Core #CPI (excluding those volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a very strong 1.0% month-over-month and came in at 8.6% year-over-year, spiking higher on #shelter, #gas and food costs.
These persistently outsized gains in #inflation are clearly having an impact on business and #ConsumerConfidence. Also, the #Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core #PCE, increased 0.34% in April, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
👉 Risk-off sentiment persisted as Vladimir Putin said it was time for #Russia to recognize the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent.
👉 Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that she will assess incoming #economic data in deciding whether a half percentage point interest rate hike would be required in the upcoming meeting.
State of the Economy through Charts and Tables
As the GDP growth (at 5%) slowed to a 25 quarter low in Q1 of FY 2020, let us examine the various economic indicators to understand the 'real' state of the Indian economy. Here is a thread. 1/13
As the GDP growth (at 5%) slowed to a 25 quarter low in Q1 of FY 2020, let us examine the various economic indicators to understand the 'real' state of the Indian economy. Here is a thread. 1/13
1) 2-Wheeler Sales - dipped by ~17% in July, 2019. Motorcycle sales fell by 19% while Scooter sales declined by 12%. Scooters sell more in urban India. Motorcycles sell in both urban as well as rural India. The data shows distress in both India and Bharat. 2/13
2) Car sales - saw a massive YoY volume degrowth of 30.3%. Car purchase is a discretionary spending. People buy cars only when they are assured of future economic prospects. It shows that urban economic sentiment is at rock bottom levels. 3/13
