Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CMIP6
Most recents (11)
Half through sorting the #dataviz bookmarks and still haven't found the links I am looking for (the curse of over bookmarking).
But here are 10+1 super amazing, interactive, and midn-blowing🤯 #environment, #climate, #trade, #emissions related websites that are just 🤩
👇👇
But here are 10+1 super amazing, interactive, and midn-blowing🤯 #environment, #climate, #trade, #emissions related websites that are just 🤩
👇👇
1/ The #WorldBank's #SDG atlas covers each #SDG goal in detail with some great datavizzes inside each of them. Check it out! Really a lot of effort went into this.
datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/
datatopics.worldbank.org/sdgatlas/
2/ @ChathamHouse brings an interactive resource website that allows you to explore bi-lateral #trade linkages. Data currently ranges from 2000-2020.
resourcetrade.earth
resourcetrade.earth
1-How will the stratospheric #polarvortex respond to #climate change? Bottom line: we have no idea. A 🧵on a new paper out by Alexey Karpechko, @HillaA1, me, @Domeisen_D, @Marlene_Climate, @zd1awrence, E. Manzini, @michaelsigmond, @IslaSimpson4, and Z. Wu: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
2- There is no agreement across #CMIP6 models in the magnitude or even sign of the polar vortex response to climate change, though the magnitude of any individual model response tends to increase with the magnitude of climate warming.
3- Individual models tend to show the same signed response of the #polarvortex regardless of greenhouse gas scenario. This implies that differences in the model physics/configurations are likely causing the disagreement across models.
Some odd results in replicating latest Scafetta effort. I added the uncertainty on the observational temperature difference, and included all ensemble members for which I have an ECS (everyone except FIO-ESM-2). @micefearboggis @GarethSJones1 #CMIP6
Note that there are many ensemble members that have temperature differences smaller than the ERA5 value with ECS > 3. None of which appear in Scafetta's figure.🧐🧐🧐
Possibly just a function of the automatic ensemble member selection when downloading from ClimExp?
Possibly just a function of the automatic ensemble member selection when downloading from ClimExp?
Regardless, Scafetta's claim that only models with ECS<3ºC are compatible with ERA5 is patently wrong.
Constraints based on recent trends only preclude the really high ECS models (> 5ºC), see work by @kasia_tokarska for better analyses of this.
Constraints based on recent trends only preclude the really high ECS models (> 5ºC), see work by @kasia_tokarska for better analyses of this.
1/ Excited to share my new paper w @radleyhorton in @NatureClimate on exceptional land warming in coastal northeastern US and its connection to atmospheric circulation changes and AMOC-related SST increase in the adjacent shelf region of the Atlantic.
nature.com/articles/s4155… 🧵
nature.com/articles/s4155… 🧵
2/ Check out these press releases that capture the gist of our study
+ @UMassAmherst by @DaeganMiller umass.edu/news/article/c… @CNS_UMass @UMassGeo
+ Columbia: news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/09/23/the…
+ @UMassAmherst by @DaeganMiller umass.edu/news/article/c… @CNS_UMass @UMassGeo
+ Columbia: news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/09/23/the…
3/ @chriscmooney et al published a story in 2019 (part of ‘2C: Beyond the Limit’ series that won Pulitzer) highlighting warming in the Northeast.
+ 🧵 by Mooney:
+ Article: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/…
Our study tries to explore potential links to AMOC & NAO.
+ 🧵 by Mooney:
+ Article: washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/…
Our study tries to explore potential links to AMOC & NAO.
🌳♲💦🌳♲💦 Our paper on the current understanding of Amazon evapotranspiration (ET) has been published online by @EGU_HESS! 🌳♲💦🌳♲💦 @DomSpracklen @lgarciacarreras @JohnMarsham 1/7
hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/22…
hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/22…
We estimated Amazon ET using a catchment-balance approach and compared our results with remote sensing and reanalysis products, climate models from #CMIP5 and #CMIP6, and flux tower data. 2/7
Most products struggled to capture key features of Amazon ET, like the strong seasonal cycle, and the fact that Amazon ET is mostly limited by available solar energy. 3/7
Time to share our new paper published today in @EGU_TC " Diverging #future surface mass balance between the #Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet". 🥳 Message: The SMB is projected to increase over the grounded ice but to decrease on the peripheral ice shelves. (1/n)
We use our regional climate model #MAR to downscale 2 #CMIP5 and 2 #CMIP6 models that were carefully selected over the #Antarctic ice sheet . From 🌍 to🇦🇶using MAR as 🧐 (2/n)
The surface mass balance (ie, difference between accumulation and erosion at the ice sheet surface) is projected to increase ↗️ due to Global Warming. (3/n)
Our second Zero In Report launches today!
How can the latest #climate models help us understand where #GlobalWarming is heading in the next few decades?
And how does COVID-19 affect future climate projections?
constrain-eu.org/publications/z…
1/n
How can the latest #climate models help us understand where #GlobalWarming is heading in the next few decades?
And how does COVID-19 affect future climate projections?
constrain-eu.org/publications/z…
1/n
Featuring work from across CONSTRAIN
Check out our blog: constrain-eu.org/news/zero-in-2
And/or keep reading our short but sweet summary 🧵👇
2/n
Check out our blog: constrain-eu.org/news/zero-in-2
And/or keep reading our short but sweet summary 🧵👇
2/n
Analysing the new #CMIP6 #climate models has helped us to understand where global temperatures are heading, depending on the emissions we produce.
Plus where we stand in terms of the #ParisAgreement - can we stay within 1.5 degrees of temperature rise?
3/n
Plus where we stand in terms of the #ParisAgreement - can we stay within 1.5 degrees of temperature rise?
3/n
Is the strong future warming found in several next-generation #CMIP6 climate models realistic? We apply weights based on the models’ historical performance and independence to find out.
Our study is now published in @EGU_ESD 👇
doi.org/10.5194/esd-11…
1/🧵
Our study is now published in @EGU_ESD 👇
doi.org/10.5194/esd-11…
1/🧵
We calculate distributions of change in different variables, like the Transient Climate Response (a comparable measure for how much a model warms due to CO2 🏭). Weighting can considerably shift these distributions and increase their skill.
2/🧵
2/🧵
We find the multi-model distributions of Transient Climate Response as well as future warming to be shifted downward by applying the combined performance-independence weights. Decisive climate action is still needed but the most extreme warming might be less realistic. 🌡️
3/🧵
3/🧵
New paper with @piersforster now out in @NatureClimate - Energy budget constraints on historical radiative forcing nature.com/articles/s4155…
Provides a top down energy budget constraint on historical radiative forcing of 2.3 (1.7 to 3.0) [5-95%] Wm-2. Thread: [1/n]
Provides a top down energy budget constraint on historical radiative forcing of 2.3 (1.7 to 3.0) [5-95%] Wm-2. Thread: [1/n]
Radiative forcing is a fundamental quantity for understanding the drivers of climate change, yet significant uncertainty remains in our quantification & model representation of it. For example see any paper that includes @gunnarmy including this epic journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117… [2/n]
What we do is combine measurements of historical temperature change dT & Earths heat uptake dN alongside model reconstructions of Earth’s radiative response Y. Constrains historical forcing F via energy budget eqn F=dN+YdT. Like Otto etal nature.com/articles/ngeo1… in reverse [3/n]
We just published a paper on climate sensitivity in #CMIP6 models: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…
Figured it was time for my first twitter thread!
Figured it was time for my first twitter thread!
We found that effective climate sensitivity (#ECS), when averaged across all #CMIP6 models* (orange), was larger than in #CMIP5 (blue) by about 0.6 deg C (about 1 deg F).
*that were available by the end of 2019
*that were available by the end of 2019
This is mostly (but not entirely) due to stronger positive feedbacks from changes in low-level clouds. That is, most models predict that as Earth warms, cloud properties change so as to allow more sunlight to be absorbed, causing additional heating & ultimately more warming.
[CLIMAT] A suivre en vidéo à 9h30, la communauté scientifique présente sa révision du socle des simulations françaises pour le #giec @IPCC_CH
: le réchauffement global semble plus important que dans les versions précédentes, à l’horizon 2100. #CMIP6
: le réchauffement global semble plus important que dans les versions précédentes, à l’horizon 2100. #CMIP6
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CMIP6 a été construit à partir des constats des exercices précédents : il y a encore besoin de connaissances dans plusieurs domaines, mobilisant des chercheurs et des moyens. En chiffres, ce sont + de 20 centres de modélisation dans le monde, dont deux en 🇫🇷...
