Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BorderPoll
Most recents (10)
1. Timely that we're having the #unity conversation now because we're going through the biggest constitutional change in a generation, said @moneillsf @IrelandsFuture
2. We're in a period of massive change, we have a chance to grab it and make something better said @moneillsf @irlelandsfuture
@moneillsf 3. We have to be mature and respectful enough to have the conversation about change, said @moneillsf. After a century of division there is nothing for nationalists to celebrate. But I accept those of unionist identity come at this from very different viewpoint @IrelandsFuture
1. British government has sole say in timing of #borderpoll and is not bound to make decision in good faith says @JohnDoyleDCU. It can choose to do so at a time when it thinks it will kill off the debate. So Ireland needs to be ready he warns @IrelandsFuture #jointheconversation
2. Waiting for #unionist politicians to be ready before having the #unity discussion is not only pointless but disrespects their position says @JohnDoyleDCU Discussion needs to proceed now, he says. Unionists will join the debate later @IrelandsFuture #jointheconversation
3. We need to put our #unity proposals on the table now and have the maximum amount of detail in them, says @JohnDoyleDCU @IrelandsFuture #jointheconversation
If there was to be a #BorderPoll, how shd it best be designed & conducted?
A gp of academics convened to answer that Q… & we found it to be far from straightforward*
Here’s our interim report bit.ly/3nWfRiC
+a few thoughts
1/8
*Not just cos we like complicating things
A gp of academics convened to answer that Q… & we found it to be far from straightforward*
Here’s our interim report bit.ly/3nWfRiC
+a few thoughts
1/8
*Not just cos we like complicating things
The Working Gp was excellently chaired & expertly run… but it was no easy task.
Not just due to our various views/disciplines, but cos there was almost no element that cd not be interpreted in different ways.
Each part of this #report was laboriously debated & discussed.
2/8
Not just due to our various views/disciplines, but cos there was almost no element that cd not be interpreted in different ways.
Each part of this #report was laboriously debated & discussed.
2/8
We learned that legal matters were one thing (😬) but if we also try to adhere to the #1998Agmt in underlying principles, it becomes even more challenging.
This is only right.
Inclusivity, consensus, British-Irish cooperation… remain essential.
They are also hard-earned.
3/8
This is only right.
Inclusivity, consensus, British-Irish cooperation… remain essential.
They are also hard-earned.
3/8
So what's happening to views on Irish unification in NI?
More from @ARK_info #NILifeTimes survey #nilt2019 📊
This incl. long-standing Qs plus some new ones about whether certain things would encourage or discourage people from voting in favour of a #UnitedIreland.
THREAD
1/7
More from @ARK_info #NILifeTimes survey #nilt2019 📊
This incl. long-standing Qs plus some new ones about whether certain things would encourage or discourage people from voting in favour of a #UnitedIreland.
THREAD
1/7
#NILifeTimes (face-to-face, random sampling) has different results from internet polling e.g. @LucidTalk re: proportion wanting Irish unity.
It's reasonable to say our figure (c.1/4) prob. too low, theirs (c.1/2) prob. too high, & the 'real' figure is somewhere in-between.
2/7
It's reasonable to say our figure (c.1/4) prob. too low, theirs (c.1/2) prob. too high, & the 'real' figure is somewhere in-between.
2/7
The great value of NILT is that it is a time series survey, ie. same Q & method over 20+yrs.
Overall, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in support for Irish unity.
Devolution remains preferred long-term policy (even though it wasn't functioning when Q asked).
#nilt2019
3/7
Overall, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in support for Irish unity.
Devolution remains preferred long-term policy (even though it wasn't functioning when Q asked).
#nilt2019
3/7
Wrote this @IrishTimesOped.
👇
Here's a summary + supporting evidence in the form of a **Mighty Thread** using @ARK_info data 📊 & work with @BenRosher [🙌].
Right so.
Do public opinion, #GE19 & #Brexit make a United Ireland inevitable? 🧐
TL;DR: No.
1/ irishtimes.com/opinion/northe…
👇
Here's a summary + supporting evidence in the form of a **Mighty Thread** using @ARK_info data 📊 & work with @BenRosher [🙌].
Right so.
Do public opinion, #GE19 & #Brexit make a United Ireland inevitable? 🧐
TL;DR: No.
1/ irishtimes.com/opinion/northe…
@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher Reason why DUP is under pressure isn't due to a general ‘greening’ of NI electorate nor down to any fabled ‘pan-nationalist front’.
They lost because of a pro-#Remain vote coming from unionist voters as well as nationalist ones
+ those who don't identity with either. #Neither
2/
They lost because of a pro-#Remain vote coming from unionist voters as well as nationalist ones
+ those who don't identity with either. #Neither
2/
@IrishTimesOpEd @ARK_info @BenRosher @CathalPMc & I argued: "to be Neither Unionist nor Nationalist does not automatically mean you vote for an ‘alternative’ or middle ground party such as Alliance."
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Neithers vote across the spectrum & –more notably– many don’t vote at all
...Until #GE19?
3/
journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
Neithers vote across the spectrum & –more notably– many don’t vote at all
...Until #GE19?
3/
For the day that’s in it, here’s a thread on #consent.
Or, rather, Consent as it's being referred in the N.Ireland hiccupy-part of the #Brexit process.
@DPhinnemore & I have been working on all of this stuff. Here’s 1 article on it. More to come.
1/15
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…
Or, rather, Consent as it's being referred in the N.Ireland hiccupy-part of the #Brexit process.
@DPhinnemore & I have been working on all of this stuff. Here’s 1 article on it. More to come.
1/15
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/201…
@DPhinnemore We can all agree that consent = a good thing.
& when it comes to post-conflict NI, particularly so.
A history of mistrust & misuse of power means that making laws that work for people of all backgrounds = vital.
It's also important that democratic processes are seen to work.
2/15
& when it comes to post-conflict NI, particularly so.
A history of mistrust & misuse of power means that making laws that work for people of all backgrounds = vital.
It's also important that democratic processes are seen to work.
2/15
@DPhinnemore There is no ‘principle’ of consent in #1998Agreement per se, but it's there in 2 main forms.
The 1st = majority consent.
No change to the constitutional status of NI without it being approved by the majority of people in NI. Hence the provision for a #borderpoll in future.
3/15
The 1st = majority consent.
No change to the constitutional status of NI without it being approved by the majority of people in NI. Hence the provision for a #borderpoll in future.
3/15
Leo Varadkar : If @BorisJohnson means what he says about leaving with a deal, then he will have to depart from what he said this week. #Brexit #MacGill19
@BorisJohnson .@LeoVaradkar says we can't rule out the possibility of an election in the UK. Says the current Irish gov is on its third UK PM. He jokes we may see a 4th.
#Brexit #MacGill19 #MacGill2019
#Brexit #MacGill19 #MacGill2019
@BorisJohnson @LeoVaradkar Taoiseach - A Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop is "essentially buying a bit of time".
Leo Varadkar says any deal without backstop is essentially a no deal.
Leo Varadkar says any deal without backstop is essentially a no deal.
To summarise results from the @IrishTimes/MRBI poll:
Opinions in NI on #Brexit:
- overwhelmingly reject a hard Brexit; 67% want UK to stay in CU & SM
- wd vote to remain in a 2nd ref
- wd prefer checks on goods btn GB&NI than checks on @BorderIrish.
1/4
irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Opinions in NI on #Brexit:
- overwhelmingly reject a hard Brexit; 67% want UK to stay in CU & SM
- wd vote to remain in a 2nd ref
- wd prefer checks on goods btn GB&NI than checks on @BorderIrish.
1/4
irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Opinions in IRL on #Brexit:
- 54% satisfied with Irish govt handling of Brexit
- but almost equal split on whether should compromise on #backstop
[cf. @skynews poll]
- also split btn those saying checks on goods going to EU wd be preferable to those going across the border.
2/4
- 54% satisfied with Irish govt handling of Brexit
- but almost equal split on whether should compromise on #backstop
[cf. @skynews poll]
- also split btn those saying checks on goods going to EU wd be preferable to those going across the border.
2/4
On a #BorderPoll:
- rising support for border poll (36% inc 55% of Catholics)
- see graphs below [can't assume preference re: Irish unity on basis of religious denomination]
- in the Republic: 49% say there should be a referendum on Irish unity, & 62% would vote in favour.
3/4
- rising support for border poll (36% inc 55% of Catholics)
- see graphs below [can't assume preference re: Irish unity on basis of religious denomination]
- in the Republic: 49% say there should be a referendum on Irish unity, & 62% would vote in favour.
3/4
My prediction: if we proceed to a #NoDealBrexit this year, Scotland will have a second #IndependenceReferendum within 6 months, which will succeed. Northern Ireland will have a #BorderPoll within a further 5 years.
I don't want it, but I feel at this point it's inevitable.
I don't want it, but I feel at this point it's inevitable.
It appears that the UK government want to hasten this outcome. Maybe my timeline was too long.
Hmm. Senior Cabinet ministers now thinking the same thing.
bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-po…
bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-po…
Tánaiste Simon Coveney says “we cannot allow one party in Northern Ireland to veto #brexit proposals.” In reference to the DUP. He says DUP accept NI “isn’t Kent or a borough in London.”
.@simoncoveney tells @MarianRTE Sinn Féin’s call for a #borderpoll isn’t helpful and flames fear in unionists. Says Irish gov doesn’t want to threaten integrity of the UK
.@simoncoveney There is no question of a border in the Irish Sea. There must be some checks on goods traveling between two customs areas.
