Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BearMarkets
Most recents (6)
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap
'2023: The Year to Show Conviction' written by @shyamsek
A Thread (1/n)
#stockmarket #investors #marketwrap
'2023: The Year to Show Conviction' written by @shyamsek
A Thread (1/n)
#stockmarket #investors #marketwrap
The markets seem to be progressively losing steam. This would show up as weak sentiment, selling pressure, lower volumes on exchanges, and FII outflows. (2/n)
#stockmarketindia #FII #investors
#stockmarketindia #FII #investors
But, there is also a section of domestic investors showing remarkable resilience and persistence in their investing. They are still buying every dip and gradually scaling up their portfolios. (3/n)
#investing #portfolio #equity
#investing #portfolio #equity
1) In the @WSJ, last year @Justinbaer utilised a very useful perspective to historical declines and S&P #BearMarkets.
Following @naterattner's chart, I've applied the similar methodology to #BIST and let's have a closer look to the results.
Following @naterattner's chart, I've applied the similar methodology to #BIST and let's have a closer look to the results.
2) In the study, I selected #XU100 Index as a proxy and worked with 6.386 daily observations (Range is from 02/07/1997 to 20/01/2023).
Below is history of #drawdowns from All Time High (#ATH) levels to the lowest values for the #BIST. Left scale shows the percentage declines.
Below is history of #drawdowns from All Time High (#ATH) levels to the lowest values for the #BIST. Left scale shows the percentage declines.
3) As you can see, maximum drawdown is minus 67.03% and there were more occasions for 50% drops in the past.
Black dotted line represents #BearMarket territory with more than 20% declines from the peaks, and it looks more common and recursive to drastic declines.
Black dotted line represents #BearMarket territory with more than 20% declines from the peaks, and it looks more common and recursive to drastic declines.
2/ Perspective. 2022 trend matches 1969 trend.
3/ Could we be in a recovery like 1962? Possibly. But the #economic picture was so much different, better, and improving back then. I doubt this will track 1962. Of the possible remaining historical bear analogs, 1 is up, 5 are down.
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
1) #BearMarkets yani #AyıPiyasaları üzerine daha önce iki yazı hazırlamıştım. Ayı piyasalarında düşüşler ani ve sert olmakla birlikte düşüş sürecinde yüzde 10 ve üzeri güçlü tepkiler de görülür.
ergununutmaz.com/bist-ve-ayi-pi…
ergununutmaz.com/bist-ve-ayi-pi…
2) Bu çıkışların ne zaman başlayacağını bilmek kolay/mümkün olmadığı gibi çıkışın tepki mi yoksa %20 üzeri yükselişle tekrar #BullMarket yani #BoğaPiyasası dönüşü mü olduğunu söylemek bilinemez bir konuda ahkâm kesmektir.
Elbette bir tahmin ve planımız olabilir. Ona gelelim:
Elbette bir tahmin ve planımız olabilir. Ona gelelim:
3) Temmuz ayının ilk haftasında #DAX Endeksi kapsamındaki bazı hisseler başta olmak üzere aşırı satış yaşandığını düşünerek alım işlemleri gerçekleştirmiştim.
O dönemin gündemi düşünüldüğünde ve çoğunluğun satış yaptığı bir piyasada alıcı olmak stresliydi.
O dönemin gündemi düşünüldüğünde ve çoğunluğun satış yaptığı bir piyasada alıcı olmak stresliydi.
All #Sensex #BearMarkets in #OneChart
Most of us have never seen a market crash like this earlier. But it doesn’t mean markets haven’t fallen like this ever before. Take a look at all the bear markets and you will get my point.
#coronacrash #markets #bandkarobazaar
Most of us have never seen a market crash like this earlier. But it doesn’t mean markets haven’t fallen like this ever before. Take a look at all the bear markets and you will get my point.
#coronacrash #markets #bandkarobazaar
1. The 1992 crash was the first one for Indian stock markets. It took just 36 sessions for the Sensex to fall by 40% from all-time highs.
2. The bear market after the Dotcom bubble burst in 2000 was the longest. Sensex dropped 56% from all-time high and took 405 sessions or 19 months to bottom out.
