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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43
A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter
@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict
dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…
A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter
@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict
dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).
NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
3/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Utah
First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter
Running Total: 5D-11R-1? davesredistricting.org/join/7d2588ec-…
First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter
Running Total: 5D-11R-1? davesredistricting.org/join/7d2588ec-…
