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[#NotYetAHurricaneKarl update Thread, waiting for sunrise ed. #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow ]
The ridge to the north of #Karl has moved south a fair bit and appears to be pushing #Karl to the south at the eastern edge of the offical NHC Track cone.
The ridge to the north of #Karl has moved south a fair bit and appears to be pushing #Karl to the south at the eastern edge of the offical NHC Track cone.
Here's another view where you can see the leading edge of the ridge that is pushing down on the hurricane capturing it near the entrance to the Tucanpecer's northern funnel.
Lookingclose at the last four hours @NHC_Atlantic may have a point about #NotYetAHurricane #Karl not quite yet being a hurricane - as predicted by the GFS it has collapsed and broadened out close to midnight as the models said.
And now, finally, @NHC_Atlantic has put up a new advisory on #TSKarl #HurricaneKarl
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...
Current satellite imagery shows why NHC thinks Karl will also be pushed through the Tehuantepecer wind gap for a 2nd time - its all a matter of timing. Karl is already clearly outside their cone, the railway lines show where a ridge is building as dry air pushes south.
You can see the scenario in the latest GFS model here. But bear in mind that this is based on the assumption that Karl is still a tropical storm. And as you can see it is expected to decay very rapidly over night.
This IR satelllite image [src: @TropicalTidbits] shows #TSKarl is unquestionably now #HurricaneKarl. It also shows it is not moving towards the Mexico coast line as per the current @NHC_Atlantic forecast - but moving NE. And the transformation into this was 3 hours ago.
Here are its first three hours as a hurricane.
Alas it appears the shear has moved south following #Karl and it is already pulling the center apart, or at least tipping it over.
There is something very unusual (to me) in this #HurricaneKarl set up, sitting over southern Mexico - a small high pressure vortex, I didn't know something like this was possible.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Could this be artifact of the Tehuantepecer event. No wonder the #99E system is not developing.
Very very weird #Karl.
