$NVDA CFO says they will exceed previous Blackwell estimate of several billion dollars (in the Jan quarter).

The latest datapoint that everything is on track. First question on the call was related to are the laws of scaling holding up? As expected, Jensen said scaling laws are holding given there are now three ways to scale.

I’m surprised $GOOG is only up 5% on the print. I would have expected it to be up closer to 10% on this news. The reason is these results are triple good news for the company. Search is benefiting from generative AI, Google Cloud growth accelerated and margins were better.

$AAPL is getting ready to delight investors with the launch of Vision Pro. Mark Gurman suggests the product will be released by February. My guess is it will be closer to March. Either way it's coming soon.

Powell’s comments today pushed the NASDAQ down 1.4%. I’m going to cover what caused the sell-off, what’s important to focus on going forward, and what this means for Tech stocks: 1. The sell-off was triggered because Powell succeeded in convincing investors that rates will remain higher for longer. He did this by increasing the expectations for rate hikes in 2024 and 2025.

My theory that traditional cars makers are in a tight spot will be put to the test on May 2nd. That’s when $F will break out its “Model e” EV business P&L for the first time. On May 22nd, they’ll host an investor day. Ford CEO Farley recently called their gas powered vehicle business “a profit and cash engine”.

Three take aways from $TSLA Dec production and deliveries. 1. Demand (production) was up 44% yy to 439.7k. Expectations were for up around 40%. Tesla produces when they get an order. I consider that a win for Tesla and will most likely outpace the auto industry by a factor of 3x.

$AAPL announces iPhone Pro model temporary production shut down in China due to COVID. Impact- For December it will take about $3B off of revenue. The Street is looking for $127B, so it’s a negative 2-3%. Good news is they get most of it back in March.

I heard from a person at Twitter today. He said things are "wild" there, and is looking for a new job. Many are looking for jobs. Employees believe Musk when he hints to letting half of the 7,500 people go. As Musk gets to work at overhauling Twitter, I wonder how much of his time will be taken away from Tesla.

$META down almost 15% on results. Initially shares were up 8%, then tanked with Zuckerberg commentary that they are increasing investments in the metaverse.

Bottom line is Zuckerberg is saying to investors get onboard with the metaverse or go away.

Jumping on the call now. Zuckerberg says engagement on their apps is better than has been reported in the media. Investors don't care because Zuckerberg is doubling down on the metaverse, and the metaverse is yet to be defined.

Sundar reminds investors that in 2010 when the company came out of the financial recession there was a decade of mobile that powered growth.

He said the next ten years will be the decade of AI that sets Google up well for growth, just like mobile did in the past. The call ends with more comments on AI. Sundar says the near term goal is to bring more AI into search to improve search quality with multimodal and visual features.

Long term they’ll bring more AI tools to Google Cloud to help companies build their own AI models.

$GOOG results are a disappointment but not terrible. FX was a 5% headwind but they hedged most of that so its not an excuse for the miss. Youtube was the biggest disappointment, down 2% yy, which is 5% below the Street.

Search grew 4% yy but missed estimates by 4%. That compares to 14% growth last quarter.

2020 was the year of EV's led by $TSLA up ~ 800%.

2023 will be the year of the battery because the light will go on for long term investors. In 5 years, I expect to see rising valuations of companies targeting the broader battery opportunity. The collective valuation of the companies that supply everything from battery components, energy packs and material recycling could rival the combined market cap of automakers.

$PTON stock is down 15% on earnings today. The key issue for Peloton is recognizing that humans are lazy and, most people don't want to work out. The company needs to make as much money as possible from the few people who are passionate about fitness. They mentioned there are >150M global gym memberships, as a proxy for their addressable market. Peloton currently has about 3M subscribers. A long term target should be 10M subs.

$AAPL event thread.

1) Apple Music “Voice Plan” gives access to the entire music library through Siri for $4.99/month (half the monthly price of individual plan). Give a discount and train people to use Siri more. Don't think it'll move the Apple Music revenue needle. 2) Adding colors to HomePod mini follows the time tested roadmap of Apple sparking demand. HomePod is less than 0.5% of revenue, so the colors won’t of course move the revenue needle.

1) Apple's annual shareholder meeting just wrapped up. The following questions from the Q&A stood out to us: 2) “What are the ways in which Apple is diversifying its supply chain?”

The company had little to say with the exception of reiterating its commitment to contribute $350B to the US economy. Absent was any language about diversifying supply chain away from China.

1) $TSLA Great top line and free cash flow (FCF of $1.9B was double what the Street was looking for). While EPS looked bad, $0.80 vs. $1.01 expected, it was due to stock-based compensation which went from $400m to $633m quarter over quarter. 2) Biggest negative was auto gross margin ex credits of 20.7% vs Street at 24.2%. #Tesla is getting more aggressive on price to win market share, that’s why margins dipped. Negative for today, good for the long term given EV market is nascent.

1) #Apple, old faithful, crushed both the top and bottom line. The train rolls on. 2) They beat across all segments, except Mac which was in line with expectations. I was expecting measurable Mac outperformance. I suspect they were Mac supply constrained in the quarter.

Google's results of ad revenue up 15% year-over-year is impressive given the pullback in ad spending. To put it into perspective, over the past 4 years Google has grown ad revenue in the 20-24% range. This quarter is not that far off of the historical performance.

Google’s Q3 earnings were the most uneventful in the last several years. shares are down 2% after reporting slightly below expectations. Earnings miss was largely explained away by several non-operating expenses. This is the 17th quarter in a row that Google has achieved 20%+ revenue growth. Continuing to defy the law of large numbers. As a point of reference, over that same period, Facebook’s growth has declined from 54% to 25%.