Could Trump's tariffs spark a US factory & manufacturing renaissance?

Let's say they do.

Here's the problem, even if we double the number of factories the US has now. Even if we—somehow—start making microwave ovens and pleated-front chinos and pillow cases in the US again.

—> 2/ There won't be many jobs.

Factory automation for routine, repetitive manufacturing is very far along.

It's so widespread that there's a phrase in the manufacturing world:

'Lights-out factories.'

…Factories with so few people, they keep the lights off.

—>

There is a critical fraud at the heart of the Trump tariffs.

They are not reciprocal tariffs.

The tariffs are *not* based on the tariffs each nation imposes on us.

They are calculated using each nation's trade deficit with the US.

That's totally different.

List below.

—> 2/ Switzerland doesn't have a 61% tariff on US goods.

The EU doesn't have a 39% tariff on US goods.

Vietnam—Vietnam!—doesn't have a 90% tariff on goods from the US.

Those numbers aren't 'barriers' to US goods. It's *exactly the opposite.*

It's how much stuff they sell us.
—>

Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

—> 2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

—>

On the bridge of the container ship Dali, 4 minutes from disaster, there's one critical moment we haven't heard about yet.

The very moment the ship lost power the 1st time.

What did the pilot do, right then?

His first thought, apparently, was safety — the bridge looming ahead.

—>

⤵️ NTSB photo of the bridge of the Dali... 2/ The 1st 'event' leading up to the collision that the NTSB notes in its timeline is 1:24:59—when alarms on the bridge indicate power failure.

The ship was without electricity, engine power, lights, navigation, radio.

Dali was dark, literally & in terms of communications.

—>

Sam Bankman Fried sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for the FTX crypto fraud.

Below from ⁦@WSJ⁩ — a great chart comparing him to other major white collar criminals.

SBF gets a decade more than Jeff Skilling from Enron. Twice as long as Elizabeth Holmes. 2/ Here's the WSJ account of this morning's sentencing hearing.

US Dist Judge Lewis Kaplan said he thought SBF was a risk to commit future fraud if freed; didn't seem to tell the truth on the stand; and lacked 'any real remorse.'

—>

(Open free link)
wsj.com/finance/curren…

Again, a moment to pause & appreciate the cool professionalism of those in & around the Key Bridge at 1:24 am Tuesday.

Ship’s pilot radios in that ship has lost steerage & will hit bridge.

Someone (maritime control?) transmits urgent alert to Maryland/Balt police dispatch…

—> 2/ Police dispatched with just a few crisp phrases—ship has lost steering, close the bridge to traffic—and race to do just that.

No time for confusion. No time for … ‘What do you mean, close the bridge? Who says?’

4 minutes, alert to collapse.

Bridge successfully closed…

—>

Pause just a moment this evening & appreciate something from 24 hours ago:

An Alaska Air 737 had a hole torn in the side of it in flight.

The plane was 3 miles up, flying at 400 mph.

It stayed intact. The pilots landed in minutes. No one was seriously injured.

Incredible. —> 2/ For the people on board, it was a harrowing, even terrifying, few minutes.

But the training, aircraft design, engineering, safety, inspections — the fail-safe system worked.

Something went wrong. But that failure was stopped.

Great WSJ story…
wsj.com/business/airli…

I was nudged to wear a pink pullover to go see Barbie yesterday evening.

Barbie was a great movie — remarkable balance of camp, satire, serious & storytelling.

Really hard to pull all that off. The actual movie-making—set design, costumes, directing—is artful & absorbing.

—> 2/ Fun movie-making, fun movie-watching, just provocative enough.

Half the people streaming into our DC-area theater were wearing pink. You could spot Barbie moviegoers 3 blocks away.

That was cool. A brief burst of community. 'They're going to Barbie too!'

And…a mystery!

James Cameron is being interviewed by Anderson Cooper on CNN now...

'It certainly wasn't a surprise today.'

The submersible apparently dropped some ballast weights, Cameron says, in effort to abort dive.

He says pilot must have heard hull starting to delaminate & took action. 2/ Cameron on the carbon composite material as the hull of the submersible:

'It's completely inappropriate for this use.'

Wow. Says carbon composite is wrong material for 'external pressure' vessels — ie, subs — v. internal pressure vessels, like scuba tanks.

—>

US Navy heard Titan submersible implode in real time Sunday morning, using its wide network of advanced undersea listening technology.

…Huge @WSJ scoop.

Story says Navy heard implosion & notified Coast Guard commander managing the search.

Open story…
wsj.com/articles/u-s-n… 2/ Lots of people have asked exactly this question on Twitter:

Did the US Defense Department perhaps hear the Titan implode?

US Navy is always listening — with worldwide net of acoustic devices, and also using technology aboard nuclear subs.

So… —>

Coast Guard is able to offer a lot of detail on the implosion of the Titanic submersible.

• The ROV found two debris fields, and searchers identified 5 specific pieces of the submersible Titan — including both the front and rear curved ends of the pressure vessel

—> 2/ From CG briefing on the catastrophic loss of Titan vessel…

• The ROV that found Titan was the 1st one in water, looking around the Titanic wreckage

• It appears Titan imploded in the water column above Titanic — not caused by striking Titanic itself, for instance

—>

The big takeaways from the Coast Guard briefing on the intense search for the missing Titan submersible:

• Noises were heard more than once, including today, & by more than one search plane.

• US Navy underwater experts are analyzing the noises—but no insights were offered. 2/ Indeed, CG Capt. Jamie Frederick & a Woods Hole official were at pains to point out that the search ships make noises, other ships make noises, sea creatures make noises — and offered no sense what the noises might mean, except that they'd be told the sounded like 'banging.'

It's Tax Day — a little late because of the Empancipation Day Holiday in Wash DC!

Here's some US tax tidbits to brighten filing day:

• 90% of Americans file their individual returns on time, on April 15. Just 10% request the automatic extension to Oct. 15.

—> 2/ (I'm impressed with that timeliness, given we are often a national of procrastinators...)

• 90% of Americans do not actually 'do' their own taxes — they either use a professional or use one of the semi-automated online services.

(A real indictment of US tax complexity.)

Huge moment in spaceflight this morning from SpaceX & Elon Musk.

SpaceX set to test launch huge Starship spaceship & Super Heavy rocket.

If successful—it has 33 huge engines running at launch—this would be a milestone.

T-minus 10 minutes. Watch here:
spacex.com/launches/missi… 2/ Starship is a marvel, once it starts flying.

It does 2 things NASA never has:

• It will be totally resuable — the upper cargo / passenger stage; the lower 'super heavy' rocket launch vehicle. Both fly back to Earth & land.

• Refuelable in orbit.

wapo.st/3ohjlSi

The 1st woman to fly in space was a Russian skydiver & textile worker, Valentina Tereshkova, who orbited in Vostok 6 for 3 days in June 1963.

When she returned, her space-time was more than all 6 (male) US astronauts total to that date.

Tereshkova, 86, is still alive.

—> 2/ Her story is filled with great, small details. See Wikipedia entry below.

She is the only woman to have ever flown in space solo.

She's the youngest woman to have flown in space — she was 26. That record might be broken in the next decade…

—>

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valentina…

From inside the US air travel collapse of Southwest Airlines at Christmas 2022:

This airline is over. There's a single commitment of the US airline industry: We'll get you where we said, on the day we said, safely.

No one goes to Christmas, or a wedding, 'with flexibility.'

—> 2/ If you're re-booked for the big event, or the 5 day vacation, 4 days later — that's not transportation.

It's like sitting down at a great restaurant, ordering dinner, & having them tell you they can't do it — but they'll bring you exactly that food in 2 days. As breakfast.

Whoa!

Minute 35, Hannity cuts away from Trump speech.

‘We’ll get back to him for a very important ending.’

Too boring even for Hannity…? 2/ Mike Huckabee: ‘The approach of this speech was perfect. If he keeps on like this through 2024, he’s unbeatable.’

Hannity now alluding to something called ‘the failure in Ukraine.’

The only failure there is… yeah. Never mind.

Today's the day the world officially reaches 8 billion people.

Those people have the talent, energy, and spirit to solve our problems.

But the talent doesn't just come from Silicon Valley, or Austin, or Manhattan.

Just as likely from places pressed by water & food scarcity. 2/ The better a job we do taking care of everyone, the more likely all of us will thrive.

How has world population grown?

1 bil 1804
2 b 1927 (123 yrs)
3 b 1960 (47)
4 b 1974 (14)

5 b 1987 (13)
6 b 1998 (12)
7 b 2010 (12)
8 b 2022 (12)

9 bil 2037 (15)

WMT CEO Doug McMillon says in earnings call:

Walmart has set prices of Thanksgiving dinner items the same as a year ago — 'including turkeys for less than $1 a pound.'

Sam's has lowered the prices of rack of lamb and lobster tails (I think the figure was 40%...) 2/ WMT's Sam's Club *lowers* the price on its hot dog combo meal — hot dog + a drink.

Was $1.50. Now $1.38.

McMillon delivers this news with straight face. Small humorous competitive shot at…Costco's famous hot dog.

A fascinating & unsettling story of how soaring bike thefts in Burlington — unsolved by police — have revealed some deeper problems in the city.

No neat ending to this one.

But we should ask police to be creative tackling ‘small’ or routine crimes.

—> nytimes.com/2022/11/12/bus… 2/ A few years ago my wife’s car was stolen here in DC — right from the downtown garage where it was parked.

DC police were polite & utterly uninterested & unhelpful.

Turns out DC like many big cities is sprinkled w high tech license plate readers.

DC police could see the car!

It's been an impressive morning in the US economy. A thread of tidbits.

Southwest Air reports all-time record passengers, all-time record revenue.
CEO tells CNBC if they had the pilots they need, traffic could have been 5% to 8% higher.
'Our training faciliites are full.' 2/ McDonalds has a big quarter.

Comparable restaurant sales up 9.5% worldwide.
US comparable restaurant sales up 6.1%.

McD's said US 'visits' increased (including delivery orders). Said US restuarants increased prices 10%. Saw no weakness in US consumers.