I told Euronews that Trump’s 24-hour peace plan was essentially a surrender. His new six-month timeline signals a shift toward pressuring Russia - still not ideal for Ukraine, but a major improvement. 1/ There are signs that this leverage is being built now, maybe in coordination between the Biden administrations “last-ditch” attempt to confiscate $300 billion Russian assets. 2/

Zelensky: we killed 30-35 000 Russians in Kursk, Trump is a strong leader feared by Putin.

Russia can occupy any EU country, and so EU can’t survive without Ukraine army.
1/ Ukraine is not talking to Russia behind closed doors.

In the EU, some try to play both sides, being friendly with Russia or pretending to balance things.

For me, the union is important - union in support, in geopolitics, in weapons, in sanctions, in the EU, in NATO.

2/

Another good symptom for Ukraine

The news here is not that Europe is against seizing Russian assets, but that Biden and Trump teams coordinated the move 1/ CNN: Senior Biden officials have consulted closely on the idea with President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team, including Sen. Marco Rubio, his secretary of state designee, and Rep. Mike Waltz, tapped for national security adviser. 2/

Trump’s team now says a quick peace in Ukraine is impossible and this is good news. Why?

The U.S. has leverage over Ukraine but not Russia. So, a quick deal means meeting Russian demands and pressing Ukraine into accepting it. Bad for Ukraine, the world, and the U.S. 1/ Russia is winning on the battlefield so it will seat and wait for the offer from Trump. It can afford to wait.

Any deal different from surrendering Ukraine requires time to strengthen Ukraine and find leverage over Russia 2/

Ukraine and Poland understand what Washington doesn’t: Poland is next.

In 2013, Crimea’s annexation seemed unthinkable; by 2022, a full-scale invasion was a reality.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine's independence is a fundamental condition for the security of Poland and Europe

1/ Tusk: I emphasize – Russia is heading for confrontation, this is not Europe's plan.
We are the target of aggression from Russia.

Kennedy’s explosive analysis proves Russian economy is bankrupt. Craig exposes hidden defense debt and a credit bubble, aggravated by punitive interest rates and sanctions. It is not an economic fortress Russia but a house of cards. 1/ Russia funds its war through a dual system: the official defense budget and a covert bank financing scheme. Putin narrative of economic resilience is unraveling as financial instability mounts. 2/

After Trump’s inauguration, Lavrov's rhetoric has grown stale, too coy to provoke Trump. Yet, today he said:

"The U.S. and Denmark should listen to the residents of Greenland just as Russia once listened to the residents of Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya" Lavrov said

1/ Scholz has said nothing in his talks with Putin that he hasn’t already stated publicly," Lavrov 2/

Economic fortress Russia is doing great!

Gazprom - the Russian gas giant that used to rule Europe - plans to cut 1,600 jobs, a 40% reduction in its central office workforce in St. Petersburg, marking the largest layoff in its history 1/ European gas sales halved in 2023, with revenues dropping 30% year-on-year to Rbs8.5tn ($93bn), leading to a record loss of Rbs629bn ($6.9bn). 2/

Biden: The US is stronger, Russia is weaker, nuclear war averted

In his final foreign policy speech, he defends his approach to Ukraine, de-escalation and gradualism

What he omits: the human cost of this “victory” and Russia’s sustained military buildup under his watch
1/ So far, Putin has failed to subjugate Ukraine, failed to break NATO's unity, and failed to achieve significant territorial gains

2/

Ukraine is ready to help the United States fight the fires in California - 150 Ukrainian rescuers will be sent there, Zelenskyy said. 1/

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1878536232663187774

Earlier Trump Jr and Musk implied thar Ukraine might have contributed to the fires as some do the surplus firefighting equipment was sent to Ukraine in 2022. 2/

Trump National Security Adviser on Ukraine:

A call with Putin soon, peace negotiations soon, Zelensky so ready, but needs to draft young people.

So Ukraine can stabilize and deter, unrealistic to return all territory, ceasefire is a first step 1/ Waltz: Preparation for negotiations are underway.
War has bogged down to a WW 2 style meat grinder of people and resources with WW III consequences

President Zelensky walked in the room in Paris and saying, ready to work with you to end this war, to protect Ukraine's future 2/

Anne Applebaum describes how to make sense of the new political reality: New Obscurantism.

In this worldview: anti-vaccine conspiracies replace science, mystical nationalism overwhelms law, and political influencers brand themselves as spiritual leaders. 1/ Trump's 2025 cabinet nominees exemplify trend:

Gabbard (Krishna sect member),
RFK Jr. (anti-vaccine activist),
Patel (COVID cure seller) combines fringe beliefs with Russian sympathy. 2/

Trump threats appear to be working, already

Axios reports that Denmark sent private messages to Trump's team offering to discuss increased US military presence in Greenland 1/ Denmark already is spending at least $1.5 billion on defense in Greenland to ensure "stronger presence" in Arctic.

I guess the US can add multiples of that easily. 2/

Meloni rules out a Ukraine withdrawal and sees no sign Trump plans one either. The war meant to last three days will soon mark three years - the longest “three days” that will be remembered in Russian history. 1/

To be honest, I don't foresee a withdrawal and I don't see it in the statements that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has made. And here, let's say, the reality seems to be a little bit different from the narratives that have been made. 2/

Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy on Ukraine and Russia: Johnson and Truman tried to buy Greenland, the Chinese control the Panama Canal, and Trump will be fair to Ukraine, no pushover for Putin. Still, it might take 100 days, not 24 hours 1/ Keith Kellogg: People need to understand Trump is not trying to give something to Putin or the Russians, he's actually trying to save Ukraine's sovereignty and guarantee it. And he will guarantee that it is fair and honest. 2/

Today Trump spoke about tariffs on Mexico to stop drugs, Greenland’s 45,000 people wanting to join the U.S., how he defeated ISIS, Ukraine being the EU’s problem, taking Canada by economic force, and using the military to take the Panama Canal from China.

His best quotes: 1/ On US hostages in Israel: If those hostages aren't back - I don't want to hurt your negotiation - if they're not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas. 2/

“Why are you not convinced by trillions of dollars? What has happened to your business instinct? Are you stupid? And that’s what I say to pension funds as well. Are you stupid?” said Bauer

FT: Bauer calls on banks etc to change outdated policies in face of rising threats 1/ The problem is larger than it seems. As Bauer notes, regional wars are the reality of the near future. Yet, anyone supporting defense - whether through investment, consumption, or other means - risks triggering compliance flags, account closures, or being denied services 2/

A must read: Politico’s list of 2025 black swans: Russia or Ukraine collapse, China-Taiwan clash, AI backlash, nuclear Iran, US debt crisis, space attacks, health system crisis. 1/ 1. On Russia-Ukraine: the war might freeze but won’t end; Putin would start losing power in Russia.

I would add: a spectacular collapse of either Russia or Ukraine, a use of nukes, or other powerful new weapons by either side, mass migration. 2/

Zelensky told Fridman that Ukraine is ready to spend $300B of frozen Russian assets on U.S. weapons, has Europe’s best anti-corruption system, and proves Western security promises are worthless. 1/ 1. On corruption: Ukraine’s anti-corruption system is the most advanced in the EU. Nearly all reforms are complete, and anti-corruption bodies now operate independently.

Claiming there’s no corruption would be dishonest, but we address it openly and fight it genuinely. 2/

A sweet, perhaps, bittersweet piece from The Guardian on Ukrainians replanting war-burned forests 10 miles away from the frontlines 1/ G: Yuriy Bengus leads volunteers planting English oaks in Kharkiv's war-damaged Zhuravli forest, despite active combat 12 miles away 2/

Neutral Ukraine is a delusion of those who don’t understand history.

Over the last 350 years, Russia fought Ukraine in 24 wars (h/t Victor Yushchenko)

For centuries, Ukrainians have fought and died for freedom from Russia. Neutrality cannot be forced on Ukraine 1/ I remember the 2013 peace agreement between then pro Russian president Yanukovych protestors, who fought against his pivot to Russia

It was brokered by three European foreign ministers was structurally sound and detailed, including provisions for early elections and observers 2/