Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
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Mar 25 7 tweets 3 min read
Trump: No sanctions relief for Russia, yet.

Ukraine-Russia ceasefire was agreed, then violated.

Black Sea ceasefire—significant progress, no details

Signal security leak—non-issue, nothing occurred.

Europeans are freeloading; tariffs are creating jobs and trillions. 0/ Q: Sir, the Kremlin listed conditions for the Black Sea deal, including sanction relief. Did the U.S. agree to them?

Trump: Russia gave five or six conditions—we’re looking at all of them. Nothing agreed yet, but we’re thinking about it. 1/
Mar 25 4 tweets 1 min read
WH reports about it's deals with Russia and Ukraine.

Main: The U.S. Ukraine and Russia agreed to ensure safe vessel navigation in the Black Sea.

and the U.S will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports

1/ Image Also Ukraine and Russia both agree on:

Ban strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities.
Trump and Zelenskyy and Putin aim to achieve a durable peace settlement by stopping conflict killings.

2/
Mar 25 11 tweets 3 min read
Lavrov: Ukraine is a Nazi project backed by Europe to fight Russia. Moscow will “denazify” Kyiv and build a new world order - with China, India, Iran, and North Korea.

Russia says it’s fighting fascism. But glorifies North Korea. And partners with Iran.

0/ Lavrov: Ukraine is the exception. It’s a breeding ground for Nazis, raised for yet another attempt to rally Europe under fascist banners and push it into war against Russia. 1/
Mar 24 9 tweets 2 min read
TIMES says Putin has played every U.S. president since Reagan.

He used religion for Bush, poetry for Talbott, sabotage for Clinton, flattery for Trump, and open confrontation for Biden.

He finds weaknesses and exploits them. 1/ Image TIMES: Putin began manipulating Trump in 1988 during his first Moscow visit, using business ties, praise, and backchannels.

As president, Trump echoed Kremlin lines, questioned NATO, dismissed U.S. intelligence, and defended Putin after the 2018 Helsinki summit. 2/
Mar 24 13 tweets 3 min read
Trump’s team - JD Vance, Rubio, Waltz, Hegseth, Gabbard, Ratcliffe - accidentally added a journalist to their Signal chat about strikes on the Houthis in Yemen

The real story is in their messages. JD Vance argues it’s Europe’s problem, not America’s. Others push back 1/ JD Vance: But I think we are making a mistake. 3% of U.S. trade runs through the Suez. 40% of European trade does. There’s a real risk the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to act is, as POTUS said, to send a message. 2/
Mar 24 8 tweets 2 min read
Zelensky tried to lead the world. Instead, he was forced to lead alone

He tells TIME what really happened in the Oval Office—his first interview since that fight 1/ Image TIME: Feb 28, Oval Office. Zelensky brings a gift—Usyk’s championship belt. But he opens with something else: photos of tortured POWs 2/
Mar 23 7 tweets 2 min read
FT: Zelenskyy’s approval rose to 67% (the highest since December 2023) after Trump called him a dictator without elections in Washington.

Trump’s attack helped Zelenskyy position at home and made his opponents seen as politically toxic if they echo Trump’s line. 1/ Image Ukrainians viewed Trump's criticism as an attack on their country rather than just their leader.

It pushed internal disputes aside and made Zelenskyy appear as a symbol of national resilience. 2/
Mar 23 4 tweets 1 min read
If we’re honest about the facts:

1.Putin invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea not because of NATO, but because Ukrainians chose the EU

2.NATO membership became a goal only after Russia’s 2014 invasion - when the threat became undeniable 1/ 3. There were no referenda on joining Russia in Ukrainian regions until Russia occupied them. Russia forced people to vote at gun point

4. There was no civil war in 2014, but a Russian invasion 2/
Mar 23 16 tweets 3 min read
Most people I know—Ukrainians, Americans, and my social media crowd—dislike or even hate Trump. They’re afraid he’ll cut a deal with Putin and sell out Ukraine.

I disagree. Trump could offer Ukraine a real chance to end the war.

Here are five reasons why 1/ Image 1. The alternative - Biden’s strategy - has been more damaging for Ukraine

It focused on escalation management and failed. No path to victory, no path to peace. No talks with Putin. No timely sufficient weapons for a real counteroffensive 2/
Mar 22 7 tweets 2 min read
Trump voters like him more than ever. Why? Four conservative NYT columnists gave their take.

NYT: for many Americans, especially on the right, the system needed breaking — and Trump remains the man with the hammer.

1/ Image Trump has 90% approval among Republicans with only 4% among Democrats, creating the largest partisan gap in 80 years, while more voters think America is on the right track than at any point since 2004.

2/
Mar 22 4 tweets 2 min read
Trump on Russia-Ukraine: no deadline, but expects results soon. Both sides are "going at it pretty heavy," but peace talks are moving. 0/ R: Did you give Putin a deadline for the ceasefire?

Trump: Not a deadline, but I think we'll have one. I think — you know, they're going at it pretty heavy right now, as you probably saw. Both of them. But I think we'll have it done fairly soon.

1/
Mar 22 11 tweets 4 min read
Witkoff: Ukraine will hold elections, and won’t join NATO. The ceasefire at Black Sea is on the table.

Putin won’t march on Europe; parts of Ukraine want to join Russia; Putin is Trump’s friend. 0/ Tucker: Do you think there will be elections in Ukraine?

Witkoff: Yes. They've agreed to it.

Zelensky is trying his best but faces a nuclear nation with four times his population. He must know he'll get ground down. 1/
Mar 21 4 tweets 2 min read
Trump: Ceasefire is soon; a contract will divide Ukraine up

R: Russia continues to attack Ukraine. Are you planning any sanctions?

Trump: They're fighting against each other. Yeah, think we're going to have ceasefire on a lot of areas, and so far that's all held very well

1/ Trump: I believe, we're going to pretty soon have a full ceasefire, and then we're going to have a contract.

And the contract's being negotiated, the contract in terms of dividing up the lands
2/
Mar 21 8 tweets 3 min read
Zelensky is done with vague talks. Ceasefire must be for real. Russia must stop. UN won’t protect us. NATO will. Ukraine is ready for peace — with allies, specific plans, and demands. 0/ Zelensky: Ukraine supported the US call for an unconditional ceasefire. No need for endless meetings — just stop fighting.

First step? Silence in the sky. Trump told me he asked Putin to stop hitting energy and civilian targets. 1/
Mar 21 6 tweets 1 min read
Basically, Germany now can spend unlimited amount to support Ukraine and develop its defense.

WSJ: Berlin plans to spend €1 trillion - half to modernise its army, half to upgrade infrastructure. That’s 20 times more than what the EU spends on defense. 1/ Image A new law lets Germany borrow for defense without breaking its strict debt rules. If investors keep buying the bonds, the military gets steady funding. 2/
Mar 20 12 tweets 4 min read
Zelensky: Russia wants to keep the war going. NATO membership is off the table. The U.S. is backtracking on a ceasefire. Crimea is dying under occupation. Ukraine leads in drone warfare. Europe must step up. 0/ Zelensky: Crimea is a Ukrainian peninsula. Without Ukrainians, it is dying. All logistics depend on mainland Ukraine. It used to get 3 million tourists each summer, 2.8 million were Ukrainians. Now, there is no tourism. 11 years without tourism. 1/
Mar 20 4 tweets 2 min read
Q: Zelensky and Trump say peace is possible this year. Do they agree on how?

Me: There are disagreements. Lots of talk, few specifics. Meanwhile, attacks continue—drones hit Kyiv right after Trump spoke with Putin.

Ukrainians want peace but doubt how soon—or if—it’s real. 1/ Q: The U.S. seems to shift from rare earth deals to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. What do you think?

Me: Minerals are still in play, just delayed. The energy talk likely means nuclear.

Russia wants Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine insists it stays Ukrainian. The U.S. may be signaling: if we take control, Russia won’t. Good news for Ukraine. 2/
Mar 20 9 tweets 3 min read
Zelensky says he spoke with Trump about U.S. control over Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, but not others. It needs investment. No pressure from Trump.

Technical talks on a partial ceasefire are ongoing, but what to do with split towns? A West Berlin? Not viable at this scale.

1/ Zelensky: Trump asked me if the US could restore our nuclear power plant. I said: yes, if it you can modernize and invest in. We are ready to discuss it.

But we talked only about one plant [in Zaporizhzhia] - the one currently under Russian occupation. 2/
Mar 19 6 tweets 2 min read
Leavitt: Trump said the U.S. could help run Ukraine’s power plants. He believes American ownership would be the best way to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Translation: the U.S. wants to own Zaporihzhya nuclear power plant, otherwise it might fall into Russian hands.0/ Leavitt: Trump agreed to work with Zelensky on his request for more air defense for Kyiv. 1/
Mar 19 9 tweets 3 min read
Witkoff: we are close a consensus with Russia; Trump-Putin erring wasn’t empty, but effective;

The energy and infrastructure ceasefire is a first step;

We don’t agree with Russia on stopping mobilization and disarming Ukraine during the ceasefire 0/ Did you feel then that you had the opening for a breakthrough?

Witkoff: I had 2 meetings with Putin. The first one 3,5 hours, and the second one was close to 4 hours (we actually really narrowed the issues). They were both compelling.
1/
Mar 19 8 tweets 3 min read
Trump: Putin didn’t demand a stop of aid to Ukraine and disarmament; we didn’t talk about that at all;

I am tougher with Canada than with Russia because it is meant to be our 51st state; China and Russia want to get along with the U.S. 0/ Laura: Putin agreed to ceasefire on energy but not to a 30-day ceasefire.

Trump: A ceasefire, without going a little bit further, would’ve been tough. Russia has the advantage. They have encircled about 2500 soldiers. They are nicely encircled and that's not good. 1/