Russia’s economy is in worse shape than Ukraine’s. Russian Central Bank head Nabiullina admits it has nearly exhausted its resources.

Addressing parliament today, Nabiullina complained about

1. No people left. A record-low unemployment at 2.4%, worsening labor shortages 1/ 73% of enterprises face labor shortages 2/

When pressed on why the U.S. delayed military aid to Ukraine out of fear of Russia, Sullivan blames Ukraine for its losses instead 1/ Sullivan claims the weapons provided didn’t significantly impact the battlefield. Perhaps that’s because they were delayed, supplied in limited quantities, and telegraphed to Russia in advance, allowing them to adapt. 2/

Putin changes the nuclear doctrine to allow greater freedom to use nuclear weapons. This is empty rhetoric because:

1. The doctrine was never a constraint, as Putin could alter it at will

2. His real constraint is China, which would seek to remove him if he uses nukes 1/ 3. Putin has a more practical alternative to a tactical nuclear strike: targeting Ukraine's nuclear power plants. Striking reactors could create a disaster akin to a small nuclear explosion, with the added advantage of blaming Ukraine for a false flag operation 2/

A thousand days of war have fortified Ukraine’s sovereignty and defined a generation, but the cost in human suffering defies comprehension

My interview with Grand Continent 1/ Q: Is the U.S. lifting missile restrictions a reversal of policy?

A: Not entirely. Reports suggest usage may be restricted to the Kursk region, framing this as more of a public relations effort than a true shift. 2/

Russia launched 130 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine today. Ukrainian forces intercepted about 100

One missile was brought down by Nataliia, a preschool teacher turned soldier 1/ Nataliia Hrabarchuk downed her first cruise missile with an Igla MANPADS—her first combat launch, and a direct hit 2/

What’s truly remarkable about Trump’s nominations is his clear, fast pivot to viewing the Russia-China-Iran axis as an outright adversary. No president articulated a strategy this directly through appointments this fast. But his domestic nominations are deeply troubling 1/
Trumps signals that he is putting security and strength—both at home and abroad—at the forefront. 2/

NYTimes writes that Ukraine is shifting focus from territorial control to security guarantees. Here in Kyiv, I agree. The Trump election is a wake up call for many, including me, to reassess our options. 1/ The argument has long been that territories are about the people who live there—people Russia oppresses and brutalizes, whom we cannot abandon.

Now, with the stark realization across Ukraine that reclaiming these territories is unlikely, perspectives are shifting. 2/

Ukrainian bonds have surged 12% in past month because investors expect that Trump will get a rapid war settlement, which is good for business. At least, in the short run 1/ Ukrainian euro bonds jumped[after Trump election] from 44 to 49 cents on dollar, with GDP warrants climbing even more sharply as markets price in peace prospects 2/

The best explanation for Trump’s nominations of Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard comes from Konstantin Sonin @k_sonin : they won’t be confirmed, but it’s Trump’s way of rewarding loyalty.

I quote: 1/
Tulsi Gabbard, former congresswoman (back then a Democrat) and veteran, is proposed for National Security Coordinator. Matt Gaetz, congressman, is nominated for Attorney General 2/

NYTimes on the new department for government efficiency under Musk @elonmusk and Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy

Their job is to get $2 trillion in federal budget cuts by July 4, 2026

They are also thinking about shutting down Education dept, FBI, IRS 1/

#DOGE Musk's has a major conflict: SpaceX has $10 billion in federal contracts, faces 20 investigations/lawsuits from agencies he'd oversee. Also, department to provide "advice from outside government." 2/

Trump pick for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth:

“You know what ceasefires are for him [Putin]? An opportunity to reload”

“[We should be] equipping and supplying Ukraine with what it needs

The Biden administration has not been doing it fast enough” 1/

But more recently, he expressed skepticism about U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Pete suggested that the conflict “pales in comparison” to domestic issues affecting Americans’ quality of life 2/mediamatters.org/russias-invasi…

Ten days before the election, Michael Waltz launched a scathing critique of Biden’s weak foreign policy, exposing his hardline stance on China, Russia, and Ukraine. Now set to become Trump’s national security advisor, Waltz is likely to push further than Biden ever dared. 1/ Waltz echoes what Ukrainians have long argued: Biden’s “support as long as it takes” lacks strategy and invites failure. Instead, he calls for economic pressure on Russia through oil, gas, sanctions —or, if that fails, to arm Ukraine well with few restrictions. 2/

Elon drags out the discredited Jeffrey Sachs, who shamelessly blames the U.S. for the war in Ukraine

Jeff’s every claim is wrong, but what truly pisses me off is his sheer delusional arrogance that it is Washington that handpicks Ukraine’s leaders

Yet, he has to be refuted 1/

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1856172877688570095

Jeff's claim: This [invasion] is not an attack by Putin on Ukraine, [but a reaction to NATO expansion]

Reality: It is literally an attack on Ukraine. Whatever motives Jeff tries to pin on Putin, this remains an invasion—the largest war Europe has faced since 1945 2/

Trump is expected to choose Marco Rubio Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as his National Security Advisor

Both are good news for Ukraine 1/

https://twitter.com/scottforflorida/status/1856148739867492382

Rubio is a foreign policy hawk who is tough on China and Iran. And hawkish is good when dealing with Russia and thus is good for Ukraine. But he is also a realist. 2/

thehill.com/homenews/49852…

Russia has turned occupied Ukraine into gulags—places of fear where people are tortured, killed, and stripped of hope, forced to live like animals. A Russian “mind police,” in true Orwellian fashion, can have you killed simply for appearing too defiant 1/

economist.com/europe/2024/11… The Economist writes that occupied Ukraine transformed into "prison society" where citizens fear everything and without Russian passports can’t even get basic services.

Even if you are not threatening to Russia, you are "like being a refugee in your own land" 2/

Trump Jr. mocks Zelensky, trivializing Ukraine’s fight. Whatever the Trump circle thinks about corruption, Zelensky leads a nation standing against Russia while the world watches. We’re grateful for U.S. support, but it’s Ukrainians who die daily defending freedom 1/ The video sparked outrage from those who empathize with Ukraine's losses. @maria_drutska voiced concern that Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk, despite their dismissive stance, will influence future U.S. policy on Ukraine 2/

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1855577540943024526

The Washington Post reports that Zelensky is considering candidates to replace Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova—a move, I believe, that follows the fallout from his U.S. visit prior to the US elections 1/ In September, Zelensky’s stop at a Pennsylvania ammunition plant sparked a backlash from Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, who viewed it as tacit support for Kamala Harris’s campaign. Johnson officially called for Markarova’s dismissal. 2/ reuters.com/world/top-us-r…

Trump spoke with Putin and told him not to escalate the war in Ukraine, highlighting Washington's strong military presence in Europe

This sets up a tense dynamic, as Putin has a vested interest in intensifying the conflict to leverage negotiations before Trump takes office 1/ WP: Trump expressed an interest in follow-up conversations to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon”

He would support a deal where Russia kept some captured territory, and during the call he briefly raised the issue of land 2/

UK Chief of Defense Staff Radakin: Russia saw its worst month, with 1,500 casualties daily, pushing total losses to 700,000—more than double the previous monthly average from 20,000 to 45,000

But why? 1/
Russia has intensified attacks ahead of U.S. elections, reclaiming 650 sq km of territory this year, yet at a severe human and economic cost 2/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1849354640086724896

The Economist is right: many Ukrainian officials privately favored a Trump win, seeing him as preferable to Biden’s "self-deterrence." Whether they’re right I don't know, but one thing’s clear—Trump will push a solution on Kyiv, like it or not 1/ Zelensky quickly endorsed Trump's victory, frustrated with Biden's delays in aid and restrictions on long-range missile use. But I think Zelensky also quick moved to address the damage done to the relationship with Trump because of the Pennsylvania visit in September 2/

I told CNN how Ukraine will adapt to Trump
Q: Do you think Trump will be good for Ukraine?
A: It's a new reality today
Many are anxious about Trump's position about pressure on Ukraine not to join NATO for 20 years. I don't believe that's going to happen. 1/ Q: Then, what about the WSJ report that Ukraine is not to join NATO in exchange for U.S. weapons?
A: This reminds me of  the Budapest Memorandum, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for the fake security guarantees.
We learned the lesson and it won’t happen again. 2/