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From buying cassettes loaded with your favorite songs to having them all just one click away, music streaming platforms have brought the music industry on the rise.
#Spotify #musicstreaming
#Spotify #musicstreaming
What is Stage Analysis ?
How does it help to filter stocks ?
A thread š§µ
#stocks #stageanalysis
1/n
š
How does it help to filter stocks ?
A thread š§µ
#stocks #stageanalysis
1/n
š
There are four main stages in stage analysis: accumulation, Advance, distribution, and Decline. Each stage is characterized by a specific psychology behind the stock's price movements.
2/n
2/n
Key Components Of Stage Analysis
--->Weekly Stock Chart
--->30-Week Moving Average
--->Volume
--->Market Indices(#Nifty #smallcap100)
3/n
--->Weekly Stock Chart
--->30-Week Moving Average
--->Volume
--->Market Indices(#Nifty #smallcap100)
3/n
1. Companies which hold large IP will have huge advantage in long term
2. Highest qtrly revenues from music segment
3. Not only going to focus on Hindi but will be taking good market share in all languages
2. Highest qtrly revenues from music segment
3. Not only going to focus on Hindi but will be taking good market share in all languages
4. Announced strategic tie up with arjit Singh for original and recreation in multiple languages
5. Till now only used QIP funds to buy mango music. Looking for the deals at right valuations.
6. Launched carvan mobile with price point of 2000 to 2500 Rs
5. Till now only used QIP funds to buy mango music. Looking for the deals at right valuations.
6. Launched carvan mobile with price point of 2000 to 2500 Rs
#saregama Q1 23 Concall Highlights šµšµ
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1. Music business segment grew 38% YOY (Caravan + Licencing)
2. Crossed 550 mn views for sarekaru vari pataa movie
3. Nathunia bhojpuri song crossed 150 mn youtube views in 3 months
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1. Music business segment grew 38% YOY (Caravan + Licencing)
2. Crossed 550 mn views for sarekaru vari pataa movie
3. Nathunia bhojpuri song crossed 150 mn youtube views in 3 months
4. Planning for a big jump for content acquisition after QIP. There will be regional content acquisition as well.
Planning to take 30-35% out of total content which will be around 800 cr so saregama would be taking 240 to 280 crs
Planning to take 30-35% out of total content which will be around 800 cr so saregama would be taking 240 to 280 crs
5. Useful life of music initially was taken as 6 years while after the assessment, company changed to 10 years.
6. Marketing cost expensed immediately while content acquisition cost will be amortized over 10 years. Higher for the first 2 years and liner after that.
6. Marketing cost expensed immediately while content acquisition cost will be amortized over 10 years. Higher for the first 2 years and liner after that.
#Saregama Concall highlights šµšµ
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1. Films & TV crossed 100 cr revenues with 15% margin
2. Currently total catalogue of songs stand at 142k vs 130k
3. sarkaru vaari paata and gangubai crossed 1 B views in 3 months
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1. Films & TV crossed 100 cr revenues with 15% margin
2. Currently total catalogue of songs stand at 142k vs 130k
3. sarkaru vaari paata and gangubai crossed 1 B views in 3 months
4. Launched 2 marathi movies and 1 web series in this qtr.
5. Management positive about shift from ad-based revenue to premium paid music. Globally this shift already started. In India it's expected in next 12 to 18 months. It it happens saregama will grow at much higher rate
5. Management positive about shift from ad-based revenue to premium paid music. Globally this shift already started. In India it's expected in next 12 to 18 months. It it happens saregama will grow at much higher rate
6. Not directly impacted due to netflix. Saregama is content provider and not music/films platform.
7. QIP funds not invested in RPG group companies. Till now acquired Mango music and Issues related expenses utilized from 750 cr. Waiting for deals at good valuations.
7. QIP funds not invested in RPG group companies. Till now acquired Mango music and Issues related expenses utilized from 750 cr. Waiting for deals at good valuations.
My understanding of #CDSL #IEX and #Saregama & #Tips šµšā”š»
Can #CDSL & #IEX reinvest the earnings in the business ? These businesses won't need much cash to grow.
#CDSL have market linked revenue so business will have some cyclicality. Opportunity size is huge
Can #CDSL & #IEX reinvest the earnings in the business ? These businesses won't need much cash to grow.
#CDSL have market linked revenue so business will have some cyclicality. Opportunity size is huge
#IEX
1. Revenues are not linked to market.
2. Excellent business model with super high margins and ROCE and it don't need any capital to grow.
3. But govt regulation can be a double edged sword which keeps the competition away but also can kill you.
1. Revenues are not linked to market.
2. Excellent business model with super high margins and ROCE and it don't need any capital to grow.
3. But govt regulation can be a double edged sword which keeps the competition away but also can kill you.
Why šµ music labels is unique business model ?
@NeilBahal
Watch the video !
Link :
1. High Entry Barriers
It's not easy to create catalogue of 1 Lk songs in short time. Each movie will have 4-5 songs and in a year about 100 movies might be released,
@NeilBahal
Watch the video !
Link :
1. High Entry Barriers
It's not easy to create catalogue of 1 Lk songs in short time. Each movie will have 4-5 songs and in a year about 100 movies might be released,
so about 500 songs will be produced in a year. To create catalogue of 25000 songs it will need 50 years. Industry will keep consolidating, as bigger players will acquire the smaller music labels.
2. Get the acquisition costs recovered in 3-5 years and keep the content with you for lifetime without any incremental costs.
Keyword : Without incremental costs
Keyword : Without incremental costs
#tips & #saregama
I am analysing their growth numbers (for the main YouTube channels). Looks like:
1. Tips is growing subscribers at 15%, views at 25% cagr
2. Saregama is growing subscribers at 30%, views at 40% cagr
Can be part of reason for valuation differential.
š
I am analysing their growth numbers (for the main YouTube channels). Looks like:
1. Tips is growing subscribers at 15%, views at 25% cagr
2. Saregama is growing subscribers at 30%, views at 40% cagr
Can be part of reason for valuation differential.
š
Mango music is growing subs at 15%, views at 25%. In fact this combo is most common among all the different labels.
T series stands out. Growing subs at 20%, views at 27% cagr. Despite being largest YT channel on earth.
T series stands out. Growing subs at 20%, views at 27% cagr. Despite being largest YT channel on earth.
Aditya music has been referenced by people multiple times.
Aditya music is growing subs & views at 65-80% cagr. Absolute monster growth happening here.
Aditya music is growing subs & views at 65-80% cagr. Absolute monster growth happening here.
#Tipsindustries Q3 2022 Concall Highlights
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1. 60%-70% of the Tips library is 90ās Music
2.The Content charge for the quarter was around ā¹10 cr
3. Overall the Viewership was reduced due
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1. 60%-70% of the Tips library is 90ās Music
2.The Content charge for the quarter was around ā¹10 cr
3. Overall the Viewership was reduced due
to opening up of the lockdown, but had no direct effect on Tips business.
4. When Tips came up with their IPO in the year 2000 they acquired 12 Labels at once like Times music, Gold Theatre and also a western
4. When Tips came up with their IPO in the year 2000 they acquired 12 Labels at once like Times music, Gold Theatre and also a western
5. As always content cost is written off in the same year of acquiring the content. They do lumpsum deals with singer instead of royalty model
#Saregama Q3 FY 22 Con Call š§µ
šµš¶
Updates -
1. The company will keep riding the Digital wave.
2. 9 Month revenue at - 400cr, 25% Growth YoY
3. PBT Stands at 130cr
4. Content charge for the quarter was 11.5cr
5. Q3FY22 OIBCID is 42%
Profitability of the business is going up
šµš¶
Updates -
1. The company will keep riding the Digital wave.
2. 9 Month revenue at - 400cr, 25% Growth YoY
3. PBT Stands at 130cr
4. Content charge for the quarter was 11.5cr
5. Q3FY22 OIBCID is 42%
Profitability of the business is going up
Deals-
1.Music - Signed 2 deals with OTT platforms - Planet Marathi & Chingari
2.Also licensed their music to brands like Nestle, Amazon, PhonePe, Vivo, Himalaya etc
Films-
1. No films released by Yoodlee in this quarter.
1.Music - Signed 2 deals with OTT platforms - Planet Marathi & Chingari
2.Also licensed their music to brands like Nestle, Amazon, PhonePe, Vivo, Himalaya etc
Films-
1. No films released by Yoodlee in this quarter.
2.Yoodlee has already pre licenced 2 web series with OTT,
3.shooting of these are still on going and might go live in Q4 of 22 or Q1,23.
Yoodlee Films -
1.Yoodlee films have already shown profits, the film business has very thin margins.
3.shooting of these are still on going and might go live in Q4 of 22 or Q1,23.
Yoodlee Films -
1.Yoodlee films have already shown profits, the film business has very thin margins.
#Saregama delivered very good number š
š§music industry expected to grow by 12-14%,and Saregamaās licensing revenue to grow by 22-25% annually over the next 3-5 years.
The key drivers growing Digitsation and cheap data plans & Saregamaās inv in NewMusic(will grow the mrkt share)
š§music industry expected to grow by 12-14%,and Saregamaās licensing revenue to grow by 22-25% annually over the next 3-5 years.
The key drivers growing Digitsation and cheap data plans & Saregamaās inv in NewMusic(will grow the mrkt share)
š»saw a good recovery in Carvaan sales,This reflects positively on its intrinsic potential.Approach towards Carvaan will remain unchanged in FY22
In FY 22 the focus on transitioning Carvaan from one-time margin Product to recurring revenue generating Platform will continue
In FY 22 the focus on transitioning Carvaan from one-time margin Product to recurring revenue generating Platform will continue
š¹Video Films: Hindi films will primarily be made under guaranteed output deals
ā¢ Focus on regional language films continues
ā¢ Expect to get our first Web Series green-lit this year
ā¢ Unforeseen lockdowns may affect shoots
ā¢ Focus on regional language films continues
ā¢ Expect to get our first Web Series green-lit this year
ā¢ Unforeseen lockdowns may affect shoots
#Saregama 2021 Annual Report Key Takeways :
A Thread š§µ
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Topics Covered :
1. Music Segment
2. IP Creation
3. IP Monetisation
4. Social Media Platforms
5. Retailing Through Carvaan
6. Carvaan - Product to platform
7. Video Segment
A Thread š§µ
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Topics Covered :
1. Music Segment
2. IP Creation
3. IP Monetisation
4. Social Media Platforms
5. Retailing Through Carvaan
6. Carvaan - Product to platform
7. Video Segment
8. Publication Segment
9.Changing media consumption
9.Changing media consumption
1. Music Segment
Saregama has India's largest music IP collection with more than 1,30,000 songs.
It has 15% of songs till 1960 contributing 5% of revenue, 27% of songs from 1961-1980 contributing 37% in revenues, 29% of songs from 1981-2000 contributing 28% of revenues
Saregama has India's largest music IP collection with more than 1,30,000 songs.
It has 15% of songs till 1960 contributing 5% of revenue, 27% of songs from 1961-1980 contributing 37% in revenues, 29% of songs from 1981-2000 contributing 28% of revenues
With seasoned investors like @LuckyInvest_AK sir talking about platform businesses I feel motivated to start a š§µš§µ on discussing, analyzing & understanding platform businesses. Read on to learn more.
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80% - 90% of Content ever recorded by the legendary singers, ghazals artists and music directors belongs to Saregama.
#saregama
#saregama
"Digitisation and low cost of data in India remain the primary growth drivers of content consumption. This is further fuelled by the increase in smartphones, the rising popularity of OTT and social media apps," #saregama
This trend is expected to continue for a long time, and Saregama has aligned its content strategy to ride on this digital wave." and Saregama said it has consistently increased the monetisation of its IP (music, films, TV serials) over the last 13 quarters.
#tips industries My key takeaways from latest (Q3FY21) concall and investor presentation. If you like the thread, please retweet so that others can also benefit.
1. Management confident of growing topline at 25-30%. Claims industry is growing at 30-40%.
1. Management confident of growing topline at 25-30%. Claims industry is growing at 30-40%.
In b/w lines: Personally, I felt some of the numbers were pulled out of thin air. Management seems a bit less professional than #saregama. Having said that, as tips inks more deals with music licencing platforms (eg:telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/tips-induā¦) it can meet its revenue growth guidance
2. If they buy a song for X, they make that money back in 1 year. Maximum of 2 years.
In b/w lines: This is extremely high ROICs. It must be understood why the content they acquire is selling so cheap that they are able to make an ROIC of 50%-100%.
In b/w lines: This is extremely high ROICs. It must be understood why the content they acquire is selling so cheap that they are able to make an ROIC of 50%-100%.
@NAVofNav this is a very important question and deserves some clarification.
Music producers like #SAREGAMA and #tips acquire 2 types of IP rights/sources of revenue when they acquire the music:
Music producers like #SAREGAMA and #tips acquire 2 types of IP rights/sources of revenue when they acquire the music:
1. Master Recording rights: (the song) which is for 60 years from the time song was released.
2. Publishing rights: These are for 60 years from the time of death of the writer/composer of the song.
2. Publishing rights: These are for 60 years from the time of death of the writer/composer of the song.
The first ones go away, 60 years after the song was released. But the second ones enable #saregama to use the lyrics and re-record the song (60 more years for this song).
The 1st rights going away is definitely a blow, but the blow is softened by the 2nd set of rights.
The 1st rights going away is definitely a blow, but the blow is softened by the 2nd set of rights.
#saregama amazing concall. Learnt a lot. My key takeaways:
1. Music licensing industry growing at 11-12%. Saregama growing at 21%. Guidance to grow at 22-25%.
In b/w lines: growth guidance revised up, purchase of 20-25% of all new music in india. Buisness is total cash cow.
1. Music licensing industry growing at 11-12%. Saregama growing at 21%. Guidance to grow at 22-25%.
In b/w lines: growth guidance revised up, purchase of 20-25% of all new music in india. Buisness is total cash cow.
2. Carvaan is not just a profitable product they sell at 25% GPM, they want to make it into a platform for audio streaming: podcasts, new songs, and thus generate recurring revenue through ads and subscription.
In b/w lines: reminds me of Google home. The focus should not be in the product But rather strategy of using the product to capture mindspace of the user. Also, enables B2C interactions with customers enabling data analytics. Only music content company in india which also has B2C
Companies with old music libraries are becoming gold mines. They are finding new ways to monetise the content. With music streaming gaining traction due to increasing data availability, these companies getting good revenues for their old libraries.
Thread š@varinder_bansal
Thread š@varinder_bansal
As expenses are fixed and very minor, all the increase in revenue flowing down to the bottom line. Huge operating leverage will be played out
An interesting fact : Short vedio apps like Tiktok , josh, moj etc need to pay to these companies even if they use small bit of music from their library
Respected all sir
I have observe that many times after high volume candle formed stocks price drop and that high volume candle's high is protected and break that high by another high volume candle only.
Here are some examples.
I have cover all large, mid and small cap stocks
I have observe that many times after high volume candle formed stocks price drop and that high volume candle's high is protected and break that high by another high volume candle only.
Here are some examples.
I have cover all large, mid and small cap stocks
