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the stories and narratives around the impact of #odte are pretty contorted. one of them is that the volume of these began increasing in June'22 and because there are net sellers (really?) it goes to explain a decline in vol since then. here's an alternative explanation -->
simply put, equity vol follows realized vol (carry matters most) and realized vol has been driven by the market's ability to see where the Fed is going. that path became clearer as the hiking cycle matured and inflation cooperated...the $MOVE fell and the $VIX followed. -->
first chart is 1w ATM implied the $SPX since June'22 along with 1m realized. Interestingly, by June, 1m realized was 30...what might the implied vol be? pretty darn close to 30 as well. hard to argue that the decline in implied isn't a function of the decline in realized. 
$SPX
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Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter (It will be out tomorrow)
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#SPX $SPY $ES $SPX #ES_F $GAMMA #GAMMA #GEX $QQQ #QQQ
$DIA $IWM #trading #options #Futures
