Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #iowacaucuses
Most recents (24)
1/11
🚨BREAKING🚨 Former Vice President Mike Pence plans to join the GOP presidential nomination race, launching his campaign with a video and a kickoff speech in Des Moines, Iowa, on June 7. Source familiar with his plans has confirmed. #2024Election
🚨BREAKING🚨 Former Vice President Mike Pence plans to join the GOP presidential nomination race, launching his campaign with a video and a kickoff speech in Des Moines, Iowa, on June 7. Source familiar with his plans has confirmed. #2024Election
2/11
The move comes as his ex-boss, former President Donald Trump, claims a majority in most national polls. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, currently in second place, will now face another high-profile contender in the field. #2024Election
The move comes as his ex-boss, former President Donald Trump, claims a majority in most national polls. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, currently in second place, will now face another high-profile contender in the field. #2024Election
3/11
Pence's challenge will be to redefine himself to GOP voters, many of whom know him primarily as Trump's VP. His conservative stance on social and economic issues is expected to set the tone for his campaign. #MikePence
Pence's challenge will be to redefine himself to GOP voters, many of whom know him primarily as Trump's VP. His conservative stance on social and economic issues is expected to set the tone for his campaign. #MikePence
1. Sorry #Nevada. You're not getting first in the nation if you can't get your results out in a timely fashion.
I think we should pick a packet of 10 states for primaries every two weeks starting Feb 1, 2024. Ten weeks later it will be over. Maybe do it by region.
I think we should pick a packet of 10 states for primaries every two weeks starting Feb 1, 2024. Ten weeks later it will be over. Maybe do it by region.
2. #IowaCaucuses, #NevadaCaucuses and #NewHampshirePrimary are anachronisms. Vestiges of a time past. And for all the folks who think Bernie will beat Trump, he's tied in Wisconsin. And his Marxist anti-American past hasn't even been dumped out of the KGB files.
3. RealClearPolitics - Wisconsin General Election Polls www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/pr…
He'll lose Wisconsin, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And the well-meaning #Berners will put a fascist in power for four more years that will be the final chapter of the Republic.
He'll lose Wisconsin, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And the well-meaning #Berners will put a fascist in power for four more years that will be the final chapter of the Republic.
We've just completed all 6,700+ voter registration forms from the #IowaCaucuses, and you know what that means: LET'S GET READY FOR SOME DATA! Here is an update on our #JohnsonCounty #VoterRegistration numbers, including how many forms were received for each political affiliation:
Fun facts on the numbers:
-This is the highest number of registered voters in County history
-This is the first time the Democratic (or any) Party has made up over 50% of registered voters (51%)
-This is the highest number of registered voters in County history
-This is the first time the Democratic (or any) Party has made up over 50% of registered voters (51%)
If you changed your party affiliation for the Caucuses and have changed yourself back, you will be getting a card recognizing your change at the Caucuses first, then a card reflecting the second status change. We have to process forms in order received.
NEW: The Iowa Democratic Party on Sunday allocated delegates based on the results of last week’s #IowaCaucuses, giving Pete Buttigieg the largest delegate count, followed closely by Sen. Sanders. on.msnbc.com/31FAeXb
Iowa Democratic caucus results are not actual votes cast. The percentages received by candidates, based on returns of the estimated number of state convention delegates won by each candidate through the caucus process, are known as state delegate equivalents, or SDEs.
Iowa sends 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The allocation of those delegates is based proportionally on the SDE results.
Live on @MSNBC:
DNC Chairman Tom Perez joins @maddow to discuss his call for the Iowa Democratic Party to "immediately begin a recanvass" after the #IowaCaucuses
DNC Chairman Tom Perez joins @maddow to discuss his call for the Iowa Democratic Party to "immediately begin a recanvass" after the #IowaCaucuses
"What happened in Iowa was unacceptable."
DNC Chair Tom Perez discusses call to recanvass Iowa Caucus vote.
DNC Chair Tom Perez discusses call to recanvass Iowa Caucus vote.
.@Maddow: "They didn't come out in droves in Iowa"
Tom Perez: "When you look at all of the turnout, the successes, we've had over 3 years, I'm certainly not going to sit here after one caucus and say, 'There's a problem, Houston'"
Tom Perez: "When you look at all of the turnout, the successes, we've had over 3 years, I'm certainly not going to sit here after one caucus and say, 'There's a problem, Houston'"
Thread. 1. Reposting these images now with the title
"Iowa Math is the #NewMath." In my original post I called these #RoundingErrors. But they are not errors. This is exactly the way the Iowa Democratic Party wants the votes to be counted. #IowaCaucus
smartelections.us/iowa-new-math
"Iowa Math is the #NewMath." In my original post I called these #RoundingErrors. But they are not errors. This is exactly the way the Iowa Democratic Party wants the votes to be counted. #IowaCaucus
smartelections.us/iowa-new-math
2. From my post: "Because of the way the math was done at the caucuses, many precincts wound up with an extra delegate that got 'assigned' to one of the candidates at the end of the caucus. We were able to look at worksheets from 18 precincts that were posted on Twitter." #Iowa
3. "We found a strange process where numbers below .5 were being rounded up in multiple precincts. 6 of the precincts (1/3) had the unusual 'rounding up.' Of the 6 precincts with the "rounding up" - 4 were given to Buttigieg, 2 to Biden, and 1 to Warren. #IowaCaucuses #NewMath
159 people from the Karen, Karenni, Chin, Mon, Shan, and Rakhine refugee communities from Myanmar came to caucus at the Karen Baptist Church in DSM. All 159 caucused for Bernie, winning all 9 county delegates. It was the first vote/caucus for over 95% of them. #iowacaucuses
These people never had the legal status in the state they were born in (Myanmar) and were in refugee camps in Thailand and Burma/Myanmar border for over 15 years. They were not allowed to leave the camps for work, education, or healthcare.
Almost all came knowing little to no English and most work in some of the lowest paying jobs in Iowa, often being exploited by some of the richest employers in the state. The US is the only state they've ever had legal status in.
@nytimes Hey there, spotted a very likely mistake in your data presentation for Polk - Des Moines 14. S.D.E. for Sanders and Warren appears to be switched, based on final alignment numbers. #IowaCaucuses #IowaCaucuses2020
We now have 75% of precincts reporting in #IowaCaucuses
@CBSNews Buttigieg still ahead in state delegate race, while Sanders has the edge in caucus goers' final choice (popular vote)
@CBSNews Updated votes-to-SDE ratios using latest #IowaCaucuses data
Biden 54
Buttigieg 60
Klobuchar 63
Sanders 66
Warren 72
Ratios higher than yesterday for each of these candidates, indicating decrease in efficiency (as larger counties report)
Biden 54
Buttigieg 60
Klobuchar 63
Sanders 66
Warren 72
Ratios higher than yesterday for each of these candidates, indicating decrease in efficiency (as larger counties report)
1/
Hey folks: I wanted to share something @apmresearch just released that I’m very proud of:
Our VOTER PROFILE TOOLS, as part of our broader #RepresentingUS project. (Read: A wealth of data to understand the US electorate in interactive @tableau tools.)
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
Hey folks: I wanted to share something @apmresearch just released that I’m very proud of:
Our VOTER PROFILE TOOLS, as part of our broader #RepresentingUS project. (Read: A wealth of data to understand the US electorate in interactive @tableau tools.)
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 2/
We at @apmresearch released these tools on #IowaCaucus day, but expect that they will be valuable up until the #2020election & beyond—to understand how eligible voters differ—often dramatically—from state to state & in each congressional district.
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
We at @apmresearch released these tools on #IowaCaucus day, but expect that they will be valuable up until the #2020election & beyond—to understand how eligible voters differ—often dramatically—from state to state & in each congressional district.
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…
@APMResearch @tableau 3/
Already I’ve read numerous #media stories about the #IowaCaucuses & #NewHampshirePrimary saying those states don’t reflect the nation’s #demographics, but the #journalists didn’t include any data as to HOW they differed and to what degree.
Already I’ve read numerous #media stories about the #IowaCaucuses & #NewHampshirePrimary saying those states don’t reflect the nation’s #demographics, but the #journalists didn’t include any data as to HOW they differed and to what degree.
WATCH: @SteveKornacki breaks down current results from the #IowaCaucuses, which show Pete Buttigieg leading in delegates, but Sen. Sanders leading in reallocated candidate preference.
@SteveKornacki "This is your clearest indication yet of what people intended to do with one choice in the #IowaCaucuses," @SteveKornacki says in explaining individual initial candidate preference.
@SteveKornacki Iowa Democratic caucuses: Why more than one candidate could declare victory. nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Breve thread su #IowaCaucuses.
1. I risultati, dopo quasi 24h sono PARZIALI e coprono il 60% dei precincts. Dato quanto sono vicini i candidati impossibile dire chi ha vinto
2. Al momento #BernieSanders conduce nei voti al primo turno e anche al secondo (ci torno tra breve)
1. I risultati, dopo quasi 24h sono PARZIALI e coprono il 60% dei precincts. Dato quanto sono vicini i candidati impossibile dire chi ha vinto
2. Al momento #BernieSanders conduce nei voti al primo turno e anche al secondo (ci torno tra breve)
3. Buttgieg e' invece, per ora, in testa tra i delegati assegnati.
Come mai? Ogni precinct assegna dei delegati. Tanti piccoli collegi. Il problema e' come vengono assegnati i delegati in ogni collegio /
Come mai? Ogni precinct assegna dei delegati. Tanti piccoli collegi. Il problema e' come vengono assegnati i delegati in ogni collegio /
Teoricamente in maniera proporzionale: chi ha piu' voti ne prende di piu'. In realta', in maniera random, perche' non ci sono regole fisse e viene lasciata liberta' ai segretari dei precinct/collegi.
Qualche esempio:
Qualche esempio:
Given current split between state delegate and final choice numbers, let's look at candidates' votes-to-SDE ratios -- a rough measure of their "efficiency" in converting votes to delegates, lower being better
Biden 44
Buttigieg 49
Klobuchar 51
Sanders 55
Warren 61
#IowaCaucuses
Biden 44
Buttigieg 49
Klobuchar 51
Sanders 55
Warren 61
#IowaCaucuses
Let's look at candidates' state delegate equivalent share vs. their share of "popular vote" (i.e., final choice) across counties
Here's Biden... on average, he's doing about half a point better in SDE share than vote share
#IowaCaucuses
Here's Biden... on average, he's doing about half a point better in SDE share than vote share
#IowaCaucuses
Here's Buttigieg, who's also doing a little better in the SDE race than he is in final choice #IowaCaucuses
BREAKING: #IowaCaucuses results with 62 percent reporting: Buttigieg 26.9 percent; Sanders 25.1 percent; Warren 18.3 percent; Joe Biden 15.6 percent; Amy Klobuchar 12.6 percent; Andrew Yang 1.1 percent. pjmedia.com/election/live-…
Important to note: in the current slate of results, Bernie Sanders seems to have won the first round of the caucus (initial preference) and the "popular vote." Supporters of the non-viable candidates are choosing Buttigieg.
Also key: Joe Biden LOST votes in between the rounds. That means he wasn't viable in many counties. This is an even bigger story, I think. #IowaCaucuses didn't have to damage Biden, but this might really weaken his electability argument.
Live coverage now on @MSNBC.
“I apologize deeply for this,” Iowa Democratic Party chairman says of delayed caucus results.
Iowa Democratic Party chairman says 62% of delayed caucus results will be released soon in a "first batch" release; says results are secure, because there is a paper trail for the results.
Not to be conspiratorial, but this reminds me of a DDoS attack disruption by overloading digital lines: "The hotlines was flooded w/ some prank calls…They were not ready for the volume"—@CNN @jeffzeleny & @jaketapper discuss #IACaucuses phone reporting problems after app failed.
@CNN @jeffzeleny @jaketapper So, I was right. MAGA trolls disrupted #IowaCaucuses election reporting by flooding the phone lines. Officials should never have publicly posted the number. Folks still don't get we're not in Kansas anymore. Trump is 150% sleazeball. (They're not called 'deplorable' for nothing!)
@CNN @jeffzeleny @jaketapper What's more predictable than Trump trolls disrupting elections, sowing doubt & discrediting Democrats?! Of COURSE they posted #IowaCaucus hotline on 4chan w/directions to "clog the lines." After 2016 we needed govt-wide response to find & close vulnerabilities. But GOP needs them
1/ Tech and #IowaCaucuses:
We now have credible reporting out about the app that wrecked Iowa. This was a preventable disaster caused by willful ignorance about development practices.
Bottom line: The Democratic Party funded their friends rather than following best practices.
We now have credible reporting out about the app that wrecked Iowa. This was a preventable disaster caused by willful ignorance about development practices.
Bottom line: The Democratic Party funded their friends rather than following best practices.
2/ We don’t ship a CALL OF DUTY game without a network stress test. But, when democracy is on the line, what does the Democratic Party decide to do?
Hastily throw together a mediocre app in under two months. Have no real user testing, have no real training and jope for the best.
Hastily throw together a mediocre app in under two months. Have no real user testing, have no real training and jope for the best.
3/ If this was 1990, MAYBE you’d give them a pass.
But we’ve had best practices to ship this kind of software for TWENTY YEARS NOW.
An indie iPhone game undergoes more user testing than this app did. It’s beyond indefensible, and people need to lose their jobs over this.
But we’ve had best practices to ship this kind of software for TWENTY YEARS NOW.
An indie iPhone game undergoes more user testing than this app did. It’s beyond indefensible, and people need to lose their jobs over this.
Last September, I called Tara McGowan "The Democrats' Most Dangerous Digital Strategist." I did so because I thought her non-profit tech model could upend politics as we know it.
I was right. Only, not in the way I expected.
ozy.com/news-and-polit… @ozy (thread)
I was right. Only, not in the way I expected.
ozy.com/news-and-polit… @ozy (thread)
For those who don't already know, @taraemcg is the founder of ACRONYM. The progressive nonprofit funnels donor contributions to progressive causes and for-profit companies — one of which is Shadow, which created the app that seemingly shut down the #IowaCaucuses last night.
ACRONYM was trying to fix a digital campaign space that often advises clients to use tactics that they can profit off of, rather than tactics that actually help candidates win.
1/2 Big #iacaucuses results are in: 41% of caucus-goers (a plurality by a mile) said #healthcare is their top motivator.
#iacaucuses2020 #IowaCaucus
#IowaCaucusesDELAYED
#IowaCaucuses
#iacaucuses2020 #IowaCaucus
#IowaCaucusesDELAYED
#IowaCaucuses
2/2 Rx prices, pre-existing conditions, and premiums/copays/deductibles are driving people of all kinds to get involved. Meanwhile, @realDonaldTrump is sabotaging healthcare at level.
cnn.com/2020/02/03/pol…
cnn.com/2020/02/03/pol…
(1/3) 2020 es possibilmen li ultim vez por li #IowaCaucuses, nam pos un die omnicos es in cáos pro que li Democratic Partise de #Iowa ha fat grand erras in li calculation e ne save ancor qui ha victet. Ti-ci vez on usat un tre complicat processe secun li
#Occidental #Interlingue
#Occidental #Interlingue
(2/3) demandas de #BernieSanders qui esset contra un primarie vice un #caucus, ma li nov sistema presc ne functiona. FĂłrsan hodie on va saver qui ha ganiat ma li jurnales ha ja comensat scrir pri altri coses (inter altris de Adresse pri li Statu del Union de #DonaldTrump) e li
(3/3) tal-nominat "bump" (crescentie in li sondages) fĂłrsan ne va evenir por li victor, mem si li partise publica li resultates hodie. To es mal por #PeteButtigieg e #BernieSanders, qui esperat un grand victorie por posser concurrer in li states a venir e recoltar plu apoy.
Não tem como haver manipulação porque, por mais confusa que seja, a caucus é um processo aberto. Não há votos diretos. Em cada local de “votação”, circulam dezenas de supervisores e representantes de cada campanha. #IowaCaucuses
Ao mesmo tempo, embora eu não apoie teorias da conspiração e desinformação, eu entendo a frustração dos eleitores do Bernie Sanders. Por incompetência ou cinismo, o partido tem feito de tudo para que se questione a imparcialidade do processo. #IowaCaucuses
O Ăşnico vencedor disso tudo: @realDonaldTrump
Instead of organising politics via electoral machines partially enmeshed with the state, which select candidates via a variety of archaic means clearly open to manipulation and error, why not just have actual political parties with candidates elected by the members? #IowaCaucuses
It’s become part of the orthodoxy of what one might call liberal anti-politics that formally organised parties, with membership/affiliate structures that determine policy and select candidates, are somehow an impediment to democracy. In fact, they’re essential to it.
The fact that most major political parties are undemocratic, and usually enmeshed with the state to varying degrees, is a symptom of them functioning *too little* like actual parties (centrally organised collectives attempting to win hegemony for a set of ideas), not too much.
i once worked @ a dead startup that offered "advanced analytics" for competing biz. i'd bet we played the same game as @ShadowIncHQ & #IowaCaucuses.
if they offer "real data insights" and can't code for shit? it's almost certainly the case.
here's how the grift works! 1/?
if they offer "real data insights" and can't code for shit? it's almost certainly the case.
here's how the grift works! 1/?
1) build a service that SUCKS IN data. in our case, it was website analytics, in an industry where yours and your competition's websites all look the same. elections? two vectors: INTERNAL (official election staff) and EXTERNAL (campaign private access)
2/?
2/?
2) make customers need you! we had desperate sales chuds begging us to help them pad their quarterly performance. in an election? what candidate is not desperate to win? captive audience with a simple ultimatum: feed us data and we can help you win.
3/?
3/?
1/ According to the @nytimes, the app used to report results during the #IowaCaucuses "was not properly tested at a statewide scale".
Follow me, we will try to have a better picture of who is behind this app.
nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/…
Follow me, we will try to have a better picture of who is behind this app.
nytimes.com/2020/02/03/us/…
@nytimes 2/ In their article, the @nytimes wrote: "The app used by the Iowa Democratic Party was built by Shadow Inc., a for-profit technology company"
Pro-tip: if you are doing political tools, "Shadow" is probably not the best company name
Pro-tip: if you are doing political tools, "Shadow" is probably not the best company name
@nytimes 3/ The Shadow Inc. has a website shadowinc.io.
In their website they describe 2 products:
- Lightrail: "the universal adapter for political data"
- Messaging: "Recruit volunteers and mobilize voters with our peer-to-peer email and texting platform"
In their website they describe 2 products:
- Lightrail: "the universal adapter for political data"
- Messaging: "Recruit volunteers and mobilize voters with our peer-to-peer email and texting platform"
