Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #fsinsight
Most recents (4)
A 🧵 🪡
1/
On Friday, I was on @CNBCClosingBell and the segment was >20 minute covered some important ground
- it’s Sunday of a long weekend, so I wanted to share some perspectives
1/
On Friday, I was on @CNBCClosingBell and the segment was >20 minute covered some important ground
- it’s Sunday of a long weekend, so I wanted to share some perspectives
2/
Foremost, FANNG up 45% this year because earnings delivery has surprised to the upside
- look at $NVDA and $META others
- future forecast of earnings higher, supporting higher PE and on higher EPS
Our #FSInsight family members know this has been our top sector pick for 2023
Foremost, FANNG up 45% this year because earnings delivery has surprised to the upside
- look at $NVDA and $META others
- future forecast of earnings higher, supporting higher PE and on higher EPS
Our #FSInsight family members know this has been our top sector pick for 2023
3/
There are many who say the stock market is “so expensive” and therefore they are bearish
- ex-FAANG, PE is 15x
- two most expensive sectors
- Staples 20x and Utilies 19x
There are many who say the stock market is “so expensive” and therefore they are bearish
- ex-FAANG, PE is 15x
- two most expensive sectors
- Staples 20x and Utilies 19x
A short 🧵🪡
1/7
Equity markets remain on a ‘hair trigger’ and today’s wobble probably due to $FRC and regional bank model concerns
👀 on #Fed FOMC 5/3-5/4
- we still expect a ‘dovish’ +25bp
- regional softness one factor
- other is lots of disinflation in pipeline
1/7
Equity markets remain on a ‘hair trigger’ and today’s wobble probably due to $FRC and regional bank model concerns
👀 on #Fed FOMC 5/3-5/4
- we still expect a ‘dovish’ +25bp
- regional softness one factor
- other is lots of disinflation in pipeline
2/7
Case-Shiller showed upside surprise on price (MoM) but arguably as important is home prices went to ZERO YoY
- zero price inflation on homes
- @Redfin rent yoy negative
- Yet, #CPI showing 8.6% yoy gains for housing
CPI lagging real-time measures = disinflation in pipeline
Case-Shiller showed upside surprise on price (MoM) but arguably as important is home prices went to ZERO YoY
- zero price inflation on homes
- @Redfin rent yoy negative
- Yet, #CPI showing 8.6% yoy gains for housing
CPI lagging real-time measures = disinflation in pipeline
Link to 3 (broke somehow)
🧵
1/
Stocks $SPY off to a strong start so far in 2023, gaining ~2% in first 5 days
- is this important?
- actually, it’s a big deal
1/
Stocks $SPY off to a strong start so far in 2023, gaining ~2% in first 5 days
- is this important?
- actually, it’s a big deal
2/
For 2023, pundits all reading off same menu:
- Fed gonna crush every rally until job market cracks + EPS going to fall in ‘23
- consensus thus, stocks fall in first half to 3,000 (S&P 500) and then maybe stocks recover to “flat” by YE
For 2023, pundits all reading off same menu:
- Fed gonna crush every rally until job market cracks + EPS going to fall in ‘23
- consensus thus, stocks fall in first half to 3,000 (S&P 500) and then maybe stocks recover to “flat” by YE
3/
Several issues with this consensus view:
- stocks rarely “flat” after a year (11% instances) and far more likely to rise >20% (53% of time)
- volatility matters more than EPS = Fed is key
- we see roadmap for volatility to sink sharply in 2023, already happened with bonds
Several issues with this consensus view:
- stocks rarely “flat” after a year (11% instances) and far more likely to rise >20% (53% of time)
- volatility matters more than EPS = Fed is key
- we see roadmap for volatility to sink sharply in 2023, already happened with bonds
What we cover on #fsinsight member call today at 1pm ET.
- NY state outperforming best case Cuomo models
- Top 8 states (50% GDP) outperforming NY
- Why case growth marks relative bottom
- If Oct 08 (not Mar 09), what worked
Sign up for free trial fsinsight.com
1/4
- NY state outperforming best case Cuomo models
- Top 8 states (50% GDP) outperforming NY
- Why case growth marks relative bottom
- If Oct 08 (not Mar 09), what worked
Sign up for free trial fsinsight.com
1/4
8 states are 50% of US GDP
- CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, NJ
- of these, NJ is doing worse than NY
NY state is 4,750 cases per 1mm people, or 1 in 200 has COVID-19 confirmed. Could be 1 in 20 based on missed tests.
2/4
- CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, NJ
- of these, NJ is doing worse than NY
NY state is 4,750 cases per 1mm people, or 1 in 200 has COVID-19 confirmed. Could be 1 in 20 based on missed tests.
2/4
Italy stock market, FTSE MIB started to outperform global stocks when new cases peaked on 3/21/2020.
- market focuses on cases because cases lead hospitalizatoins which lead mortality.
- thus, cases is key metric
- for US, we believe NY state is the key state to watch
3/4
- market focuses on cases because cases lead hospitalizatoins which lead mortality.
- thus, cases is key metric
- for US, we believe NY state is the key state to watch
3/4
