Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #confirmationbias
Most recents (15)
Losing track of the number of times a Russian speaker has overheard me speaking Ukrainian in recent months and exclaimed, "Oh, it really IS a different language!" 🤦 Russocentrism: the smug legacy of imperialism and Soviet rule. Russian is not a neutral lingua franca. A rant:
Educate yourself. Start with Ivan Dziuba's 1965 "Internationalism or Russification?" (difficult to find in English) and then go on to Yuri Shevchuk's 2015 "Linguistic Schizophrenia" where he discussed the political techniques of Russification. Some links below 👇
Background on Dziuba's work, protest, and subsequent imprisonment: khpg.org/en/1154035525
Excerpts of his work have been published in English (but I only have hard copies and no PDFs to share today...)
Excerpts of his work have been published in English (but I only have hard copies and no PDFs to share today...)
Just as there is problem with describing every little misfortune as 'trauma', there is problem describing the tiniest critique as "hate" or "venom". If it is a criticism against something your conditioning has taught you to praise it, it is your own #ConfirmationBias, not hate.
"Hate" is being used to describe an increasingly wide array of opinions/comments. By today's standards, it can be caused by a critique, reading something negative without warning or even watching upsetting news about something the masses are not conditioned 2 think negatively abt
Hate speech includes aggressive words, incitement to violence, true threat, libel or slander, and hostile environment. Free speech is a widely used right for people to speak without distress regarding retribution, censorship, misleading marketing.
Ok, Meester zoekt wel weer een nieuw dieptepunt op 🤦♂️ >> 
>> Ten eerste was dat gecijfer wat hij samen met datacharlatan @waukema en Theo Schetters deed helemaal geen eerlijke vergelijking, omdat de CBS verwachting niet uitging van iets als oversterfte, 'een-niets-aan-de-hand-hypothese' is sowieso geen goed vergelijkingsmateriaal. >>
>> Met als gevolg dat elk 'scenario' dat een plus aan sterfte incalculeert het vanzelf 'beter' doet in zo'n Bayesiaanse vergelijking. Of je nu extra sterfte veronderstelt na vaccinaties, of bijv na herhalingen van de X-files of na regenachtige dagen, >>
1/ Alternative investments are becoming ever more popular.
With more sponsors looking to cash in on the trend, an overwhelming amount of deals have an unattractive alignment of interest and a clear principal-agent problem.
One way to fix this...
With more sponsors looking to cash in on the trend, an overwhelming amount of deals have an unattractive alignment of interest and a clear principal-agent problem.
One way to fix this...
2/ ... is by making agents (GPs) move closer to principals (LPs).
This requires a meaningful amount of #skininthegame (meaningful commitment as a % of the deal).
Forget industry standards like 0 to 3% commitments, which GPs often quote since it favors them (#confirmationbias).
This requires a meaningful amount of #skininthegame (meaningful commitment as a % of the deal).
Forget industry standards like 0 to 3% commitments, which GPs often quote since it favors them (#confirmationbias).
3/ Our job as LPs (HNWIs & FOs) is to look for anomalies and no-brainer opportunities — not 99% of the cookie-cutter deals.
On Twitter, it seems most GPs are in an #echochamber.
They spend all their time discussing what they prefer, without giving a second thought about LPs.
On Twitter, it seems most GPs are in an #echochamber.
They spend all their time discussing what they prefer, without giving a second thought about LPs.
Super, #Lanz hat genau 2 min gedauert und das #BullshitBingo ist mit "Vernichtungskrieg" und "Grozny" schon wieder erreicht.
Warum das völlig in die Irre führt und einfach nur #ConfirmationBias über unsere Vorstellungen der Russen ist - ein #Rant:
Warum das völlig in die Irre führt und einfach nur #ConfirmationBias über unsere Vorstellungen der Russen ist - ein #Rant:
1) "Vernichtungskrieg" - damit disqualifiziert sich @n_roettgen leider völlig, denn - bei aller Verurteilung der Invasion - das hat nichts mit der Lage in der #Ukraine zu tun und relativiert vergangene Vernichtungskriege. (Bitte einfach mal nachschlagen)
Period. Fullstop.
Period. Fullstop.
2.) "#Grozny" - disclaimer: ja, ich glaube auch, dass die Lage zunehmend eskalieren wird. Aber nicht, weil das DIE russische Taktik ist. Jeder Krieg ist anders. Die Russen haben bis Tag 4 versucht, sich - vergleichsweise - zurückzuhalten und zivile Opfer zu vermeiden.
Lark $LRK LRK.AX is an award winning whiskey distilling company based out of the beautiful Tasmania that’s been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Does yesterday's 20% drop in the share price give us a buying opportunity?
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment thesis: Asset play.
✅Award winning whiskey
✅Growing asset base through acquisitions
✅Growing revenues with positive earnings
✅Valuations at or below net tangible assets
❓Risk of new management & Bill Lark
✅Award winning whiskey
✅Growing asset base through acquisitions
✅Growing revenues with positive earnings
✅Valuations at or below net tangible assets
❓Risk of new management & Bill Lark
2. Lark was set up by Bill Lark, the ‘Godfather of Australian Whiskey’ who was inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2015.
Only 1 of 7 people outside of Scotland to claim that feat.
Only 1 of 7 people outside of Scotland to claim that feat.
Is a single-cell RNA-seq atlas really an atlas? A short thread about #scRNAseq, maps, and atlantes (yes, the plural of atlas is atlantes! h/t @NeuroLuebbert). 🧵1/
Atlantes must be accurate to be useful, and the vexing question for centuries, namely how to best represent the spherical earth in 2D, is nontrivial. There have been many proposals with pros & cons for each (because the sphere and the plane have different Gaussian curvatures). 2/
Zu versuchen unangenehme emotionale Reaktionen Anderer von vornherein abzufangen, ist nicht nur nicht immer die beste Idee: Es kann übergriffig sein, #Kreativität ausbremsen, krisenrelevante #Konflikte verhindern.
Menschlich gesehen: Keiner spielt mit vollem Blatt.
1
Menschlich gesehen: Keiner spielt mit vollem Blatt.
1
Sinnvoller ist, der Frage nach #Funktionalität des Kommunikations- oder #Konfliktsystems zu folgen, bevor man sich an unüberprüften, bzw. unzureichenden Annahmen orientiert, welches emotionale Kommunikationsdesign für die #Organisation das beste ist.
2
2
Soft Skills sind keineswegs immer die funktionale Lösung. Sie können den Geist vernebeln, #DunningKrugerEffekt und #ConfirmationBias verstärken, folgen oft #SelbsterfüllendenProphezeiungen und schaden so langfristig der #Organisation.
3
3
In a million yrs I never thought I would come to a conclusion like this. But after reviewing hundreds of documents, & data elements, it looks like people w/ chronic illnesses are targeted pawns in a shakedown of opioid mfrs by state AGs in collaboration with federal agencies.
In 2017 testimony to the House, CDC personnel told Congress that they lacked evidence of 'what works' and would have to 'build the evidence' to reduce the use of opioids.
#ConfirmationBias
#ConfirmationBias
If we build a system to reduce opioid dispensing, opioid dispensing will be reduced. But the impact on patients with chronic illnesses appears to be of no consequence.
Das Viruslastpapier & die Schlussfolgerung
„Wir müssen vor uneingeschränkter Öffnung von Kitas und Schulen warnen. Kinder könnten genauso infektiös sein wie Erwachsene.“
Kritik an dieser Aussage und @c_drosten‘s Umgang damit.
Thread 3️⃣ der Chronologie des #ConfirmationBias
1/
„Wir müssen vor uneingeschränkter Öffnung von Kitas und Schulen warnen. Kinder könnten genauso infektiös sein wie Erwachsene.“
Kritik an dieser Aussage und @c_drosten‘s Umgang damit.
Thread 3️⃣ der Chronologie des #ConfirmationBias
1/
Am 28.05.2020 erwähnt #Drosten im NDR-Podcast, dass es in einer @RECOVER_EUROPE-Videokonferenz Diskussionen über Infektiösität von Kindern gab, in der es darum ging „wie man in dieser Situation jetzt Statistik benutzt, weil wir alle das gleiche Problem haben“.
2/
2/
#Drosten impliziert, dass es ein generelles Problem mit Daten & Statistiken zu Kindern gegeben habe und nicht speziell mit der Statistik seines Viruslastpapiers oder gar fragwürdigen epidemiologischen Schlussfolgerungen und politischen Empfehlungen darin.
3/
3/
Alles rund um die Veröffentlichung des Viruslastpapiers von @c_drosten am 30.04.2020.
Entstehung der Manuskripts und #Drosten|s Umgang mit Kritik an den Aussagen im Viruslastpapier.
Chronologie des #ConfirmationBias - Teil 2️⃣
1/25
🧵
Entstehung der Manuskripts und #Drosten|s Umgang mit Kritik an den Aussagen im Viruslastpapier.
Chronologie des #ConfirmationBias - Teil 2️⃣
1/25
🧵
Für den 30.04.2020 ist eine Ministerkonferenz für Schulöffnungen angekündigt.
Im Podcast erwähnt #Drosten in den Tagen zuvor, dass man mal Viruslast bei Kindern bestimmen müsste, weil dies ein guter Indikator für Infektiösität wäre.
Warum diese Aussage nicht stimmt. ⬇️
2/
Im Podcast erwähnt #Drosten in den Tagen zuvor, dass man mal Viruslast bei Kindern bestimmen müsste, weil dies ein guter Indikator für Infektiösität wäre.
Warum diese Aussage nicht stimmt. ⬇️
2/
Am 29.04. veröffentlicht #Drosten via Twitter ein Viruslastpapier, das laut eigener Aussage in einer „Blitzaktion“ „innerhalb weniger Stunden“ geschrieben wurde.
Auf die Idee kam er am 27.04. vor dem Podcast, sagt er.
3/
Auf die Idee kam er am 27.04. vor dem Podcast, sagt er.
3/
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/19/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/19/dai…
Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#surveillance #genetics
nature.com/articles/d4158…
#surveillance #genetics
Jason Hickel on Twitter
threadreaderapp.com/convos/1349671…
#capitalism #MarketEconomy #EcologicalLimits
threadreaderapp.com/convos/1349671…
#capitalism #MarketEconomy #EcologicalLimits
Who are you voting for president? Comment if in a swing state ✌️
For context, here's my follower makeup -
80% "very left," the rest "lean left," few right.
RT the poll if you guys want a larger sample size, but I find the above interesting to correlate with the below:
80% "very left," the rest "lean left," few right.
RT the poll if you guys want a larger sample size, but I find the above interesting to correlate with the below:
Follow up: Trump was steady at 9% but has spiked a bit higher because some right wing accounts shared my poll with their followers and explicitly asked them to "flip" the poll.
I made this for my own curiosity.
Why they care so much about twitter polls, I do not know.
I made this for my own curiosity.
Why they care so much about twitter polls, I do not know.
1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+
2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+
3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.
Re-reading the classic 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas this weekend
Will be sharing quotes/nuggets
#WeekendReading
#learningtogether
Will be sharing quotes/nuggets
#WeekendReading
#learningtogether
1 The Winning trader has attained a unique set of attitudes that allows him to remain Disciplined, focused & confident.
2 There's huge psychological gap between assuming that u r a risk taker coz u put on a trade & fully accepting d risk inherent in each trade
