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LoC #CeaseFire Reaffirmation Decoded. #thread
For nearly two weeks the villages along LoC are witnessing days and nights without the sound of guns and bombs as the DGMOs of the two nations announced reaffirmation of the #India - #Pakistan ceasefire agreement.
For nearly two weeks the villages along LoC are witnessing days and nights without the sound of guns and bombs as the DGMOs of the two nations announced reaffirmation of the #India - #Pakistan ceasefire agreement.
It is pertinent to mention that the cease-fire was asked by #Pakistan. Although, the agreement is reported to be a result of week long back-channel discussions, what made Pakistan walk on this road? Here is a quick analysis.
#India’s hardened approach to #Pakistan with cross-border surgical strikes after the #Uri terror attack & upped the ante further with the #BalakotAirStrikes following #Pulwama terror attack has made it clear that no more diplomatic resolves will opt until Pakistan mends its way
#OpSwiftRetort air strikes - plausible scenarios:
1. PAF intended to strike Indian targets with aim to cause damage but missed due to inherent system limitation, poor execution or timely counter by IAF
2. Action was only to signal capability (stated reason)
3. Both
#Balakot
1. PAF intended to strike Indian targets with aim to cause damage but missed due to inherent system limitation, poor execution or timely counter by IAF
2. Action was only to signal capability (stated reason)
3. Both
#Balakot
Analysis is complicated due to:
1. High disinformation level by Pak military establishment. Not just in present scenario but historically as well.
2. No official comment by #IndianArmy or #IndianAirForce on the efficacy of the strikes.
3. No anecdotes from history
#Balakot
1. High disinformation level by Pak military establishment. Not just in present scenario but historically as well.
2. No official comment by #IndianArmy or #IndianAirForce on the efficacy of the strikes.
3. No anecdotes from history
#Balakot
@joe_sameer goes with scenario #1 basis high variation in targeting error. But then 2 different types of weapons and platforms were employed and both are relatively unknown as far as efficacy is concerned. Neither is PAF known for air strikes.
@anshumig
@anshumig
On Wednesday, #India appointed Samant Kumar #Goel to head #RAW. India claims that he is #Pakistan expert.
#Goel had an instrumental role in planning the February 2019 #BalakotAirStrikes & the #Uri #SurgicalStrike in 2016, which have defined @narendramodi’s #CT strategy.
Being that both were proved to be fake & gave #India greater embarrassment than success.
Being that both were proved to be fake & gave #India greater embarrassment than success.
Samant Kumar #Goel takes Anil K Dhasmana’s place, who was given a 6 month extension prior to the elections.
1n Wednesday morning surprise: here’s a topographic time series of #Balakot. What does it show you? Massive construction activity & a huge dust cloud indicating construction after the date of the strikes (idea courtesy @beepdelete & @Obs_IL images @CopernicusEU @sentinel_hub )
2n Now match this with the image below of the 3 strike points. And see how each one of them develop in the time series. Especially contrast aim point 3 and the main madrasah building
3n now again watch a B&W image from a different source confirming the same pattern. You can draw one of two conclusions. Either the bomb blast effects lasted a whole week, OR that there was massive construction activity at the Madrasah post strike to cover up. #balakotairstrikes
Note on possible #IAF #airstrike today. There is NO SUCH THING as "terror camps". These aren't concentrated like schools or colleges. These are disaggregated and dispersed AT ALL TIMES. If targets were struck they would be military targets
.2n this IAF Embraer 145 AWACS was patrolling since the early hours. Watchers know this is an unusual pattern, although it did come close to the area of the alleged strike, it patrolled South as well. The plane has since returned to base. Source: @zone5aviation #IAF #airstrike
.3n for context..here is where balakot is
