Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #avct
Most recents (24)
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 This is where there is confusion amongst the #AVCT shareholder base.
Many think that the sell-off has been due to poor comms. That is not the case.
The sell-off has primarily been due to fear, driven by rumour (that of course has not been worded publicly), that @avacta...
1/9
Many think that the sell-off has been due to poor comms. That is not the case.
The sell-off has primarily been due to fear, driven by rumour (that of course has not been worded publicly), that @avacta...
1/9
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 @avacta ...is planning another major Diagnostic acquisition, that would result in further equity dilution.
There has been a concern that #AVCT has not been planning its capital allocation sensibly.
Rumour-mongering starting around SD of such a deal completely negated the epic...
2/9
There has been a concern that #AVCT has not been planning its capital allocation sensibly.
Rumour-mongering starting around SD of such a deal completely negated the epic...
2/9
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 @avacta ...data published at SD.
Mgmt has been under immense pressure from SHs in recent weeks to focus cash reserves on #AVCT Tx.
Through extensive conversations, my view is that they have listened. They are acutely aware that the value upside in Tx is of course infinitely...
3/9
Mgmt has been under immense pressure from SHs in recent weeks to focus cash reserves on #AVCT Tx.
Through extensive conversations, my view is that they have listened. They are acutely aware that the value upside in Tx is of course infinitely...
3/9
#AVCT's update today is without doubt the most significant RNS I have ever read, from any company.
Update note in the coming days, but here are some initial thoughts.
Firstly - what many want to hear - the SP at 155p (mkt cap £412m).
In my view, this will not last long. 1/20
Update note in the coming days, but here are some initial thoughts.
Firstly - what many want to hear - the SP at 155p (mkt cap £412m).
In my view, this will not last long. 1/20
There are many stale holders who have been underwater for 18+ months, who will be happy to take some cash out now, in this ongoing cost of living crisis. That is understandable.
There will also be traders exiting, having positioned for this update.
Furthermore, the...
2/20
There will also be traders exiting, having positioned for this update.
Furthermore, the...
2/20
...wider investment community has not yet heard of, and even more so not appreciated the significance of, today's news at #AVCT.
Finally, I will state with a high degree of confidence that today's RNS opens the floodgates for numerous more updates in the near future.
3/20
Finally, I will state with a high degree of confidence that today's RNS opens the floodgates for numerous more updates in the near future.
3/20
Today is FOUR HUNDRED DAYS into human trial of AVA6000.
#AVCT started at 80mg/m2 and are now at a quite incredible 200mg/m2.
Equivalent to 135mg/m2 of Dox.
They are yet to find a MTD.
Orphan Designation from FDA.
SP = 111.7p.
(-)6.13% YTD for 400 days and no MTD.
#AVCT started at 80mg/m2 and are now at a quite incredible 200mg/m2.
Equivalent to 135mg/m2 of Dox.
They are yet to find a MTD.
Orphan Designation from FDA.
SP = 111.7p.
(-)6.13% YTD for 400 days and no MTD.
What’s crazy about this SP being below placing at this stage is AVCT isn’t going to have any more data which disproves or proves the platform by this stage.
If you are Takeda and you are in the data room, you aren’t thinking ‘I really want to see the impact of 200mg vs 160mg’.
If you are Takeda and you are in the data room, you aren’t thinking ‘I really want to see the impact of 200mg vs 160mg’.
Yes of course medically they will be fascinated but if the mechanism of action is confirmed at 160mg, it’s almost irrelevant whether it is replicated at 200mg for the purposes of assessing likelihood of 3996’s success. I.e. the 200mg PK data won’t change opinion.
June 2022 Publication
“In a PDX model of osteosarcoma…”
“In a PDX model of osteosarcoma…”
2022 Annual Report
“Expected to have the following characters…”
“Expected to have the following characters…”
@AnEarlofWisdom Hi Earl, I can't see any of the posts, as I'm blocked by those accounts (or I've blocked!), but I've been told there's a lot of scaremongering about various things:
1) Delay in trial;
2) Dox not activating much in TME;
3) Low cash balance, and thus possible placing coming.
1/8
1) Delay in trial;
2) Dox not activating much in TME;
3) Low cash balance, and thus possible placing coming.
1/8
@AnEarlofWisdom On the contrary, except for Cohorts 1 and 2 taking longer than expected (due to patient withdrawals - nothing whatsoever to do with #AVA6000 itself), #AVCT's progress in 2022 could not be stronger.
The DE to 200mg/m2 was the ultimate target, so that nullifies point 2) ⬆️.
2/8
The DE to 200mg/m2 was the ultimate target, so that nullifies point 2) ⬆️.
2/8
@AnEarlofWisdom Licensing deals for targeted oncology drugs - even those at pre-clinical stage, like 3996 - have been monstrous in recent times (e.g. $100m cash upfront for an antibody-drug conjugate, just last month ⬇️).
#AVCT has referenced...
3/8
fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-be…
#AVCT has referenced...
3/8
fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-be…
Dare I say a major #AVCT rerate is (at last!) at hand?
Genuinely company-defining news could be landing over the coming weeks.
The question that is shortly to be answered:
Is @avacta's preCISION platform working in man?
If it is, the superheavyweights of Pharma move in.
1/8
Genuinely company-defining news could be landing over the coming weeks.
The question that is shortly to be answered:
Is @avacta's preCISION platform working in man?
If it is, the superheavyweights of Pharma move in.
1/8
I have said all I need to, on #AVCT's preCISION platform, here ⬇️:
Since that note, a third cohort has been launched in the AVA6000 trial, with a further considerable dose increase (+33%).
My view is that they stop here. The specificity of the...
2/8
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/avacta…
Since that note, a third cohort has been launched in the AVA6000 trial, with a further considerable dose increase (+33%).
My view is that they stop here. The specificity of the...
2/8
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/avacta…
...substrate to FAP is so high that the concentration ratio of active doxorubicin in the tumour : healthy tissue, will negate the requirement for increase in dose size. [My view!]
Enough dox is already becoming active in the tumour micro-environment, at the current...
3/8
Enough dox is already becoming active in the tumour micro-environment, at the current...
3/8
@RAH00084 Agreed. Same reason why remaining two UK hospitals have not yet (formally) come online.
Also, it's worth noting:
Theoretically, were patients 2 and 3 of Cohort 3 dosed as soon as was technically permitted by the SDMC (21 days after P1's first dose) - and at the...
1/3
Also, it's worth noting:
Theoretically, were patients 2 and 3 of Cohort 3 dosed as soon as was technically permitted by the SDMC (21 days after P1's first dose) - and at the...
1/3
@RAH00084 ...same time (which is also theoretically possible for C3 and C4) - then P2 and P3 will complete their 21-day observation period following their second doses, by the end of next week.
I think we should reasonably expect slippages (as C1 and C2 have proved) - but in BEST...
2/3
I think we should reasonably expect slippages (as C1 and C2 have proved) - but in BEST...
2/3
Whilst many scream, "avoid loss-making growth stocks like the plague!" (e.g. #AVCT!)...
@Merck ponders a $40bn T/O of oncology-focussed biotech, @SeagenGlobal.
In 2021, Seagen made a loss of $0.67bn, on revs of $1.57bn.
'22 rev forecasts: ~$1.7bn.
1/6
reuters.com/markets/deals/…
@Merck ponders a $40bn T/O of oncology-focussed biotech, @SeagenGlobal.
In 2021, Seagen made a loss of $0.67bn, on revs of $1.57bn.
'22 rev forecasts: ~$1.7bn.
1/6
reuters.com/markets/deals/…
$SGEN specializes in antibody-drug conjugates ('ADC') - a relatively novel form of targeted cancer treatment.
@avacta's targeted cancer treatment platform, preCISION, has the real potential of generating pro-chemotherapies that are MORE targeted than ADCs, and thus...
2/6
@avacta's targeted cancer treatment platform, preCISION, has the real potential of generating pro-chemotherapies that are MORE targeted than ADCs, and thus...
2/6
...also potentially capable of delivering a more potent drug payload.
#AVCT will be announcing the results of the first preCISION prodrug P1 trial (AVA6000) in the next few months.
Success will mean the platform could be used to modify many other existing chemotherapies.
3/6
#AVCT will be announcing the results of the first preCISION prodrug P1 trial (AVA6000) in the next few months.
Success will mean the platform could be used to modify many other existing chemotherapies.
3/6
The realisation of what Avacta are achieving with AVA6K is great. Not everyone is there but hopefully with DE2 coming very soon, more will cotton on.
I still cant get over how the deal with LG Chem is overlooked though
#AVCT have 3 big IPs:
1. PreCision
2. Affimers
3. TMAC
1/7
I still cant get over how the deal with LG Chem is overlooked though
#AVCT have 3 big IPs:
1. PreCision
2. Affimers
3. TMAC
1/7
If the preclinical data package is replicated in humans come the summer PK reveal (it will) and they have Biopsy results (they will) then that will prove the whole PreCision platform and not just AVA6K.
Number 1 (PreCision) ✅
#AVCT
2/7
Number 1 (PreCision) ✅
#AVCT
2/7
LG Chem continue to make excellent progress, selecting a candidate to take into preclinicals with a view to getting IND at the end of this year. This could take Affimers into the clinic for the first time and into Humans for the first time, early next year!
#AVCT
3/7
#AVCT
3/7
The contrasting opinions on @avacta's valuation on FinTwit is fascinating.
Those who think #AVCT is overvalued, just can't seem to get their heads around the possibility that a £250m British biotech could be on the cusp of revolutionizing cancer treatment.
The bull case⬇️
1/25
Those who think #AVCT is overvalued, just can't seem to get their heads around the possibility that a £250m British biotech could be on the cusp of revolutionizing cancer treatment.
The bull case⬇️
1/25
#AVCT has four platform technologies:
1) Affimer Diagnostics
2) Affimer Therapeutics
3) pre CISION
4) TMAC (a combo of 2+3)
The purpose of this thread is to focus on and explain pre CISION and its potential value. This is the greatest near-term value driver for @avacta.
2/25
1) Affimer Diagnostics
2) Affimer Therapeutics
3) pre CISION
4) TMAC (a combo of 2+3)
The purpose of this thread is to focus on and explain pre CISION and its potential value. This is the greatest near-term value driver for @avacta.
2/25
pre CISION - what is it? The most basic of explanations would be:
"Chemotherapy with dramatically reduced side-effects."
Chemotherapies are highly effective treatments for cancer, and have been used for decades. The issue with them, however, is that their effects are...
3/25
"Chemotherapy with dramatically reduced side-effects."
Chemotherapies are highly effective treatments for cancer, and have been used for decades. The issue with them, however, is that their effects are...
3/25
There are so many ways to arrive at the conclusion that #AVCT's valuation is nonsensical.
Another, beyond the below, is to look at #APTA - owner of a first generation antibody mimetic platform, Aptamers - that recently listed on AIM.
On Friday it surpassed £100m mkt cap. 1/14
Another, beyond the below, is to look at #APTA - owner of a first generation antibody mimetic platform, Aptamers - that recently listed on AIM.
On Friday it surpassed £100m mkt cap. 1/14
For each of its past two FYs, #APTA has generated no more than £1m in revenue.
The Affimer platform is a next generation antibody mimetic platform. It was "engineered to overcome many of the problems associated with aptamers or with antibodies". ⬇️
2/14
avacta.com/2014-06-20/
The Affimer platform is a next generation antibody mimetic platform. It was "engineered to overcome many of the problems associated with aptamers or with antibodies". ⬇️
2/14
avacta.com/2014-06-20/
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel Thanks Malcolm, very kind.
The air of failure surrounding #AVCT this week on Twitter and the bulletin boards - largely from non- and ex-holders - is truly mystifying.
We will have a very good idea of whether the pre CISION platform is working, in the coming few weeks…
1/
The air of failure surrounding #AVCT this week on Twitter and the bulletin boards - largely from non- and ex-holders - is truly mystifying.
We will have a very good idea of whether the pre CISION platform is working, in the coming few weeks…
1/
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel …either from dose escalation in AVA6000 P1a; or from candidate selection for AVA3996.
One vital, silver lining of #AVCT’s RNS on Monday:
Alastair Smith has made it very clear that he is a man of integrity. He could have allowed M19 to continue selling MeduFlow in the EU, 2/n
One vital, silver lining of #AVCT’s RNS on Monday:
Alastair Smith has made it very clear that he is a man of integrity. He could have allowed M19 to continue selling MeduFlow in the EU, 2/n
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel … and continue with their application to the FDA for EUA (home-use) in the US - whilst improving the strip simultaneously in the background.
All other LFT providers are doing this, after all.
The fact that AS didn’t tells us two things:
1) he will inform the market of…
3/n
All other LFT providers are doing this, after all.
The fact that AS didn’t tells us two things:
1) he will inform the market of…
3/n
I came to appreciate long ago that AIM is an inefficient and irrational market.
But the share price of @avacta this week takes the biscuit. Following Monday's RNS, I was convinced we'd be at ATHs by now.
My explanation for what I think the market is missing on #AVCT ⬇️
1/25
But the share price of @avacta this week takes the biscuit. Following Monday's RNS, I was convinced we'd be at ATHs by now.
My explanation for what I think the market is missing on #AVCT ⬇️
1/25
On Monday, #AVCT announced that it had received FDA approval for its Investigational New Drug ('IND') application, to expand its Phase I clinical trial for AVA6000, into trial sites in the US.
The timing of the submission and the length of review are critical.
2/25
The timing of the submission and the length of review are critical.
2/25
The FDA has a 30-day review and turnaround time. Given #AVCT announced the approval this Monday, owing to LSE disclosure laws we must assume it received the approval sometime between Friday and Sunday.
Give a few days for post / admin / comms delays, and we can assume...
3/25
Give a few days for post / admin / comms delays, and we can assume...
3/25
Mologic CE marked AffiDX for professional use, CE mark with #avct not Med19 AffiDX solely an avct brand. Med19 CE self use mark for Meduflow, EU CE mark solely Med19’s for Meduflow not avct. Professional & self use CE marks differ in use, both need separate CE marks.
1/23
1/23
Med19 have done all the hard work re: lay user study, filing all docs for CE mark for self use with EU notified body, as well as the money and time spent in obtaining CE self use mark for Meduflow. Med19 will be looking to keep and make a serious return on their investment
2/23
2/23
I suspect main points under license agreement between #avct Med19 would be:- use Affimer IP in Meduflow, Med19 achieve minimum yearly sale targets, which global territories (if not covering all world), royalty % per test sold, duration of license agreement,
continued…
3/23
continued…
3/23
‘Who (what) is EU Notified Body Med19/#avct cld be working with’ to obtain EU IVD self use CE certificate. What EU state cld they be from, is it coincidental they are located in Spain, same city hospital area avacta used to verify AffiDX lft, Med19 have a Spainish website
1/15
1/15
On EU NANDO database from 18 Notified Bodies (NB) Med19/#avct could be working with ‘AEMPS Notified Body’ who certify med product devices under EU directive 98/79/EC for self use in-vitro diagnostic test (IVD). If not, then 17 other EU Notified Bodies to work with
2/15
2/15
EU Notified Body much like mhra/fda. AEMPS NB is located in Spain/Madrid/Delgado. Same country, city, hospital area #avct used to independently verify AffiDX. AEMPS CE certified AffiDX for professional use, was application for AffiDX CE self use submitted around same time.
3/16
3/16
#AVCT Spoke to someone at Med19 today for 1hr 46min. Not give any detailed info. Wat I will say is: HUA in very final stages, infact very little else to do. Everything asked for has been submitted, even if EU asked for it twice its been given (if u understand wat Im implying) 1/9
Global demand is huge, getting calls from global govs/busi/high caliber distributors-business men. Med19 have orders, ready to take more orders soon as HUA is given. Affidx recognized as a gold standard reliable test, easy to use. Med19 working with global distributors 2/9
Med19 ready 2 scale up and sell multiple millions of lft’s, for global busi/gov/consumer orders. All Affidx components in stock for first batch orders. Product box/packaging/art work/instructions for consumer use almost ready, proof readin sign off needed by EU HUA body 3/9
The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.
The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.
Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.
1/11
The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.
Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.
1/11
Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:
1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.
If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.
If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.
On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.
3/11
On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.
3/11
Absolute terror reigns over many #AVCT shareholders this week- simply because @avacta hasn't announced orders for its LFT yet.
Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13
Question: would #AVCT be lining up 30m per month capacity overseas, if it thought its existing 5m per month capacity in the UK wouldn't be filled? 1/13
Many seem obsessed with the UK market, thinking that's the be-all and end-all for #AVCT's AffiDX LFT.
My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13
My view is that mgmt had turned its back on the UK market several months ago, when it was apparent that there was, at best, complete ineptitude; or, at worst, corruption... 2/13
A must-read article for #AVCT holders ⬇️
University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.
Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5
University of Leeds (@avacta's academic partner) has been able to bind Affimers to the mutated form of the RAS protein, AKA the Death Star, which is responsible for 20-30% of all cancers.
Huge LT implications for Affimer Therapeutics 1/5
Amy Turner, co-author: "RAS really is the Holy Grail of therapeutic targets. The fact that it has previously been termed 'undruggable' has allowed us to demonstrate the huge impact that our Affimer technology can have when it comes to treating challenging pathologies."
2/5
2/5
ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.
'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12
'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead. 1/12
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.
With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.
Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.
Worst case then: @avacta is now free... 2/12
...of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.
Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.
But much more importantly for the investment case:
3/12
Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.
But much more importantly for the investment case:
3/12
#avct already 1/2 recent daily avg vol traded. The offload at open by the seller appears to be abating. Very short term lead up to Monday offers 20% return for the bold at 220 ish to buy. 100 quid trades will signal the turn, limit orders on book remain shallow.
#avct mm's were long inventory, bid only just catching up, tape looking better 20 quid buys going through, book still remains shallow.
1/8
Here in Germany, we have already reached the point that my local grocery shop is selling rapid antigen tests.
Their product of choice is Hotgen, produced by a company out of Beijing.
Claims SENS 95.3% and SPEC 99.13% with the anterior nasal method.
#AVCT #ABDX #ODX
Here in Germany, we have already reached the point that my local grocery shop is selling rapid antigen tests.
Their product of choice is Hotgen, produced by a company out of Beijing.
Claims SENS 95.3% and SPEC 99.13% with the anterior nasal method.
#AVCT #ABDX #ODX
2/
There is now an unbelievable number of different products on the market in Germany, with the most popular being fairly local names, Roche and Siemens.
Both of these tests are being employed in school and kindergartens. Both employ nasal swab.
Schools testing twice weekly.
There is now an unbelievable number of different products on the market in Germany, with the most popular being fairly local names, Roche and Siemens.
Both of these tests are being employed in school and kindergartens. Both employ nasal swab.
Schools testing twice weekly.
3/
Kindergartens are giving parents two tests per week and encouraging their use.
The Roche test is essentially the SD Biosensor test the Siemens is Healgen. Both of which went through Porton Down but apparently weren't contracted.
Having spent so long studying the market,
Kindergartens are giving parents two tests per week and encouraging their use.
The Roche test is essentially the SD Biosensor test the Siemens is Healgen. Both of which went through Porton Down but apparently weren't contracted.
Having spent so long studying the market,
@avacta's AVA6000 approved by MHRA. Superb news. First dosing 'around mid-year'; first data to come within 3-4 months after that.
A summary thread on the significance of AVA6000 - and #AVCT's pre CISION platform as a whole - to both the oncology industry and to AVCT itself. 1/10
A summary thread on the significance of AVA6000 - and #AVCT's pre CISION platform as a whole - to both the oncology industry and to AVCT itself. 1/10
In very basic terms, #AVCT's pre CISION chemotherapies are essentially reformulated versions of existing, approved chemotherapies that have been used on cancer patients for many years - decades, even.
The pre CISION tech is simply an attempt to improve the safety profile... 2/10
The pre CISION tech is simply an attempt to improve the safety profile... 2/10
...of the chemo.
Most therapeutics going through clinical trials look for an improvement of at least 20% over the existing industry-standard drug. A 50% increase in efficacy would usually be considered an astonishing result.
In pre-clinical mouse models for #AVCT's AVA6000 3/10
Most therapeutics going through clinical trials look for an improvement of at least 20% over the existing industry-standard drug. A 50% increase in efficacy would usually be considered an astonishing result.
In pre-clinical mouse models for #AVCT's AVA6000 3/10
Quick recap on @avacta #AVCT's #COVID19 LFT.
By the end of next week, the Co intends to have put out a comprehensive TU.
Critically, it will include the sensitivity / specificity of its #COVID19 LFT for the first time. Analytical data collected so far suggests that it'll...1/14
By the end of next week, the Co intends to have put out a comprehensive TU.
Critically, it will include the sensitivity / specificity of its #COVID19 LFT for the first time. Analytical data collected so far suggests that it'll...1/14
...be the most accurate LFT in the world. However, it is not a given that analytical data will be replicated in the clinical data. Likely, but not definite.
Let's assume it IS replicated. #AVCT will CE Mark its LFT next month, and immediately begin selling it.
2/14
Let's assume it IS replicated. #AVCT will CE Mark its LFT next month, and immediately begin selling it.
2/14
@avacta #AVCT does not have its own manufacturing capacity (yet). It will be contracting manufacturers to make its test.
It's lined up @Abingdon_Health #ABDX, @bbi_solutions and @mologic / GAD, and is working with @OmegaDiagnostic #ODX too (although not publicly announced). 3/14
It's lined up @Abingdon_Health #ABDX, @bbi_solutions and @mologic / GAD, and is working with @OmegaDiagnostic #ODX too (although not publicly announced). 3/14
