Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ZoltanPozsar
Most recents (7)
It seems that #Zoltan has been quite busy lately!
The newest, already 5th part of his "War"-series, was published on January 6th.
In this little #thread i've summarized some of the highlights of his piece "War and Peace:
🧵
The newest, already 5th part of his "War"-series, was published on January 6th.
In this little #thread i've summarized some of the highlights of his piece "War and Peace:
🧵
"... four “war” dispatches last year: War and Interest Rates, War and Industrial Policy, War and Commodity Encumbrance, and finally, War and Currency Statecraft. In these, I identified six fronts (..) in “macro-land” () where Great Powers were going “at it” in 2022:
"the G7’s financial blockade of Russia, Russia’s energy blockade of the EU, the U.S.’s technology blockade of China, China’s naval blockade of Taiwan, the U.S.’s “blockade” of the EU’s EV sector with the Inflation Reduction Act,
Happy New Year, dear friends!!!!
You know that I enjoy reading every piece that #ZoltanPozsar at #CS writes. His latest piece "War and Currency Statecraft" (Dec. 29th) was again very much worth reading.
Here's a little #thread with the most important parts:
You know that I enjoy reading every piece that #ZoltanPozsar at #CS writes. His latest piece "War and Currency Statecraft" (Dec. 29th) was again very much worth reading.
Here's a little #thread with the most important parts:
"What are G7 policymakers, rates traders, and strategists to do when threats to the unipolar world order are coming from every angle. They should definitely not ignore the threats, but they still do.
How could they not?"
How could they not?"
"For two generations, we did not have to discount geopolitical risks. Since the end of WWII, the only
Great Power conflict investors really had to deal with was the Cold War, and since the conclusion of the Cold War, the world enjoyed a unipolar “moment”... –
Great Power conflict investors really had to deal with was the Cold War, and since the conclusion of the Cold War, the world enjoyed a unipolar “moment”... –
Folks, you know that I enjoy reading every piece that #ZoltanPozsar at #CS writes. His latest piece "War and Commodity Encumbrance" (Dec. 27th) was particularly worth reading. Here's a little #thread with the most important parts:
"A recurring theme in my dispatches this year has been that in a moment when the world is going from unipolar to multipolar, the actions of heads of state are far more important than the actions of central banks."
"Central banks will be behind the curve in this game, and if investors read only the speeches of central bankers but not statesmen, they will be even more behind the curve. The multipolar world order is being built not by G7 heads of state but by the “G7 of the East”."
I have just re-read Zoltan's piece called "Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R"....Here's my little summary:
Regardless of fundamentals, global banking reserves are not in danger of a liquidity crunch or default. This is because there are enough emergency backstops in place to essentially bail out anyone that gets into trouble by printing more reserves.
This is not the case in energy markets. Global demand for oil exceeds supply. The US and OPEC+ do not produce enough oil to supply the west. The Biden administration has been relying on the SPR to artificially lower oil prices and meet demand.
Just finished reading the new piece by #ZoltanPozsar "Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R...Fascinating read (as always), here are some highlights:
"The SPR is like the o/n RRP facility. It can be tapped when oil levels are tight. But the SPR is finite, and recent releases have brough reserves down to levels
we haven’t been at since the 1980s. The 400 million barrels left in it isn’t much:
we haven’t been at since the 1980s. The 400 million barrels left in it isn’t much:
it could help police prices for a year if we released 1 million barrels per day (mbpd), half a year if we released 2 mbpd, and about four months if we released 3 mbpd."
As previously noted, i really read everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out...His Aug 24th piece was terrific again. In this #thread I summarize the most important takeaways: 🧵
"War means industry.
Global supply chains work only in peacetime, but not when the world is at war, be it a hot war or an economic war.
I'm reading everything that #ZoltanPozsar puts out for many years...His latest piece "War and Interest Rates" (August 1st) was a true masterpiece...Here are some highlights in a #thread🧵:
War is inflationary
....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...
Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
....Wars come in many different shapes and forms. There are hot wars, cold wars, and what @DrPippaM calls hot wars in cold places – cyberspace, space, and deep underwater (see here). ...
Inflation did not start with the hot war in Ukraine…
the low inflation world stood on three pillars:
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
first, cheap immigrant labor keeping service sector wages stagnant in the U.S.; second, cheap goods from China raising living standards amid stagnant wages; third, cheap Russian gas powering German industry and the EU more broadly.
