Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SREs
Most recents (6)
1. Reuters is reporting this morning that DJT has instructed the EPA to deny retroactive SRE waivers due "to concerns the issue could cut into his support in the Farm Belt, three sources familiar with the decision said" Big development in the #RFSwars if confirmed
2. This decision jibes with the announcement earlier this week than merchant refiners are taking the SRE battle to SCOTUS. May have expected this and SCOTUS is the last resort.
3. Remember a couple of weeks ago when Biden came out against the #SREs and in support of the RFS? I thought that might be the only thing that could get DJT to betray his friends in the oil refining industry. DJT had to respond in some way and said so at the time.
1. @OPISBiofuels reported late yesterday that the US Appeals Court denied the "en banc" request for review of the 10th Circuit order on #SREs. This is no surprise given how rare it apparently is for such requests for review to be granted.
@OPISBiofuels 2. This means that the last hope for resurrecting the #SRE program is the US Supreme Court. How ironic. The first major #RFS court decision (remember inadequate domestic supply) was written by current SCOTUS Judge Kavanaugh, and it was a major defeat for the refiners and EPA.
@OPISBiofuels 3. I will be very surprised if the refiners push for a SCOTUS appeal of the 10th Circuit ruling, especially in the present circumstances. Obviously I am not a legal expert, but that seems very much like an extreme long shot for that to be successful.
1. High, high drama today in the #RFSwars. Clear that the RIN price cap proposal bombed a second time. But @OPISBiofuels reporting that D6 RINs dropped 20% this morning on Bloomberg report that Trump Admin will appeal the 10th circuit ruling regarding #SREs.
@OPISBiofuels 2. I found two things interesting in the @OPISBiofuels article. First, "Bloomberg reported that an intervention by Attorney General William Barr and "an intense pressure campaign" by Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz had EPA now set to appeal the ruling."
@OPISBiofuels 3. Second, the ferocious reaction of ag groups. "The president needs to understand that Ted Cruz doesn't care about this administration or families across the heartland who are counting on the White House to keep its promises."
1. Potentially big news on the #RFSwars. Bloomberg reporting that Trump Admin is going to apply 10th Circuit ruling on #SREs nationwide. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2. Political blowback from refining country will be severe. We will see if Trump Admin caves somehow. However, what alternative does the Trump EPA really have now? Legally, the ruling really boxed in the EPA. Pretty hard not to apply the ruling nationwide.
3. So, now let the wailing and gnashing of teeth about RIN costs begin once again. Oh my. Small refineries are going to go our of business right and left as a result. Wrong.
1. So just how bad were ethanol losses in 2019? My personal take---losses were real but maybe not as bad as many think.
2. My estimated annual profits for a representative Iowa ethanol plant over 2007-2019. I updated my model this year to recognize efficiency gains in ethanol and DDGS conversion since 2015. So profits are higher since 2015 than what I published previously. 
3. 6 straight years of annual profits over 2013-2018. So the loss in 2019 was a bummer. My estimate is an average plant lost $1.6 million in 19. Still, trendline for profits in last three years is troubling. Small profit or loss.
1. Finally, a federal judge called you know what on the EPA's awarding of #SREs under the RFS. I am not sure of the practical significance of extending vs. year by year. If you go back far enough there was a blanket waiver for all small refineries back in 2010/11.
2. It strikes me that the more momentous part of the ruling is the judge calling out the EPA for the blatant contradiction in its use of RIN pass through arguments in one set of policies but not for SREs.
3. Specifically, the EPA used its own and academic studies to argue that changing the RFS point of obligation was not needed. If RIN costs are passed through by obligated parties what difference would changing the point of obligation make? This is current EPA official position
