Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #SLD22
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I’m pleased to share my new @IISS_org analysis with @jamescrabtree on the state of US defence strategy, alliances and partners in the Indo-Pacific, launched at #SLD22.
It’s a sobering read. A🧵on why we’re so worried about the trajectory of US strategy. 1/iiss.org/publications/s…
It’s a sobering read. A🧵on why we’re so worried about the trajectory of US strategy. 1/iiss.org/publications/s…
Some good news first: the Biden admin recognises the Indo-Pacific should be its top priority and China its pacing challenge.
It realises the US can’t uphold a favourable balance of power vs China by itself (see graph) and its trying to advance a strategy of collective defence 2/
It realises the US can’t uphold a favourable balance of power vs China by itself (see graph) and its trying to advance a strategy of collective defence 2/
But the US has not matched its Indo-Pacific rhetoric w the actions and resources needed to bolster its strategic position
Despite some progress, the Biden admin is lagging on the three key elements of US defence strategy in the region: prioritisation, posture and partnerships 3/
Despite some progress, the Biden admin is lagging on the three key elements of US defence strategy in the region: prioritisation, posture and partnerships 3/
1. DPP punches Taiwan’s military in the face, again. The level of Taiwanese stupidity is just incredible.
2. I have no respect for Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s defense minister & You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. DPP’s sole expertise is punching other Taiwanese.
2. I have no respect for Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s defense minister & You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. DPP’s sole expertise is punching other Taiwanese.
3. For every surface to surface missile Taiwan makes per year, China makes at least 10 to 50. It’s just not credible for You Si Kun to threaten China — the PLA is also out building Taiwan in anti-missile missiles (to shoot down Taiwanese surface to surface missiles).
4. Taiwan is ready for American sons & daughters to die fighting for them; while planning to escape from conflict should any arise. For years, they have been opening bank accounts around the world to transfer assets & cash out of Taiwan, should the need arise.
🇨🇳 defense minister Wei responds to 🇺🇸defense secretary Lloyd Austin’s speech yesterday. China ‘firmly rejects US smearing accusations,’ and accuses the US Indo-Pacific strategy of being ‘strategy to hijack countries in our region and target one country [China].’ #SLD22
🇨🇳 defense minister appears to suggest that root cause of Russia‘s war of aggression in Ukraine is the United States. #SLD22
🇨🇳defense minister reiterates China’s nuclear “no first use” policy (NFU). #SLD22
‘Our world is facing multiple crises rarely seen in history - the way forward is to uphold and practice multilateralism. Peace and development should be a shared goal of humanity’ | Wei Fenghe, China's Minister of National Defense #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘We should strengthen solidarity and coordination, and oppose confrontation and division. We should uphold fairness and justice, and oppose hegemony’ | Wei Fenghe, China's Minister of National Defense #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘We should uphold the rule of law and oppose acting on one’s own … We should not interfere in others’ internal affairs and say no to unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction’ | Wei Fenghe, China's Minister of National Defense #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
"Your stakes are also our stakes." Important and strong speech by France's new defense minister Sébastien Lecornu (@SebLecornu) today at @IISS_org Shangri-La Dialogue (#SLD22). A thread with some highlights👇
"France is a resident nation of the Indo-Pacific. This means that our engagement in this vast region is one of the intangible elements of our sovereignty and of our security and defense policy."
"This is the reason why our Presidency of the Council of the European Union strongly promoted concrete actions for the benefit of this region [on] maritime security, connectivity, cybersecurity, or the fight against disinformation."
1/ Here we go:
@IISS_org #ShangriLaDialogue #SLD22
Special Session 3: #MaritimeSecurity: From Codes of Conduct to Crisis Communications
Chaired by @graham_euan
@IISS_org #ShangriLaDialogue #SLD22
Special Session 3: #MaritimeSecurity: From Codes of Conduct to Crisis Communications
Chaired by @graham_euan
@IISS_org @graham_euan 2/ 🇮🇳 @indiannavy Admiral Dasgupta up first. Discusses #UNCLOS and other codes like COLREGS & CUES, at a practical level regarding potential flashpoints & crises.
@IISS_org @graham_euan @indiannavy 3/ Next up: Alice Guitton from 🇫🇷 Ministry of Armed Forces.
Discusses Climate change, the resulting fragility, and role of Navies to respond.
And asks, "How to keep Sea Lanes open & secure?"
French Navy ships practice Freedom of Navigation, without ambiguity.
Discusses Climate change, the resulting fragility, and role of Navies to respond.
And asks, "How to keep Sea Lanes open & secure?"
French Navy ships practice Freedom of Navigation, without ambiguity.
‘Russia wants to make it impossible for a neighbouring country, which it sees solely as its colony, to be able to exist freely and independently’ | @ZelenskyyUa #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
Russia spreads disinformation that its war against Ukraine is something about NATO, about the role of America. But Russia's war is far from just about Europe. It's about globally important things | @ZelenskyyUa #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘It is on the battlefield in Ukraine that the future international order is being decided’ | @ZelenskyyUa #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
1/ Probably the most exciting moment so far at #SLD22 is the 🇰🇭 Defense Minister discusses Ream Naval Base.
Finally, some (minor)🎇🎆🎇 Fireworks.
@graham_euan @Sharon__Seah @willschoong
Finally, some (minor)🎇🎆🎇 Fireworks.
@graham_euan @Sharon__Seah @willschoong
2/ Wonder if he read @BDHerzinger's article:
"Washington Should Chill About China’s Cambodia Base"
@JackDetsch
foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/10/cam…
"Washington Should Chill About China’s Cambodia Base"
@JackDetsch
foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/10/cam…
@BDHerzinger @JackDetsch 3/ 🇰🇭 Defence Minister addresses directly the several questiosn about Ream Naval Base.
"The base is built on 🇰🇭 own needs... Nothing more than enhancement of Royal Cambodian Navy."
@willschoong @Sharon__Seah @graham_euan
"The base is built on 🇰🇭 own needs... Nothing more than enhancement of Royal Cambodian Navy."
@willschoong @Sharon__Seah @graham_euan
‘Japan’s significant efforts to enhance its defence capabilities are a powerful demonstration of our opposition to any attempt by any state to change the status quo’ | Kishi Nobuo #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘Japan will continue to promote its Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision. It will continue to work with ASEAN to emphasise the importance of international law and norms’ | Kishi Nobuo #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘Japan will continue to work with its Quad partners as part of its work towards the FOIP, as well as with other like-minded nations’ | Kishi Nobuo #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘France’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific is cooperative in its essence. It is working towards the stability of the region by developing partnerships, aiming to build more autonomy and development’ | @SebLecornu #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘France remains very attached to the central role of ASEAN in Southeast Asia. This is why we would like to join the ADMM+, to provide expertise in maritime security or peacekeeping’ | @SebLecornu #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘The challenges created by political rivalries in a multipolar region require an inclusive and multilateral response, based on respect for international law’ | @SebLecornu #SLD22 go.iiss.org/SLD2022
.@SecDef Austin: “We’re seeing growing coercion from Beijing. We’ve witnessed a steady increase in provocative and destabilizing military activity near Taiwan. That includes PLA aircraft flying near Taiwan in record numbers in recent months—and on a nearly daily basis.” #sld22
U.S. defense secretary just now:
„Today, the Indo-Pacific is our priority theater of operations.
Today, the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of American grand strategy.“ #SLD22
„Today, the Indo-Pacific is our priority theater of operations.
Today, the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of American grand strategy.“ #SLD22
„The Indo-Pacific is our center of strategic gravity. That’s central to the Biden Administration’s forthcoming National Security Strategy and to my Department’s National Defense Strategy.„
„Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all. It’s what happens when big powers decide that their imperial appetites matter more than the rights of their peaceful neighbors.„ #SLD22
‘The strategic dynamic in the Indo-Pacific region has developed in ways that have naturally shaped our agenda for this weekend’, says @chipmanj as he opens the 19th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue | #SLD22: go.iiss.org/SLD2022
‘The growth in number and importance of mini-lateral security arrangements is dazzling even to the most astute observers of diplomatic practice’ | @chipmanj #SLD22: go.iiss.org/SLD2022
Revealing spotlight on #China's emerging #PLA #Naval facility in #Ream, #Cambodia!
Glad to support @nakashimae & @catecadell's exposé @WashPost.
This will be hot topic at #SLD22 where I'm honored to be a delegate. Let's see what officials say! @IISS_org
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Glad to support @nakashimae & @catecadell's exposé @WashPost.
This will be hot topic at #SLD22 where I'm honored to be a delegate. Let's see what officials say! @IISS_org
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Ships adding up—
"#China’s #navy is already the world’s largest by #s of vessels. The @USNavy has 297 battle-force ships..according to @CRS4Congress, while China has 355 & is projected to have 460 by 2030, according to last year’s @DeptofDefense report."
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
"#China’s #navy is already the world’s largest by #s of vessels. The @USNavy has 297 battle-force ships..according to @CRS4Congress, while China has 355 & is projected to have 460 by 2030, according to last year’s @DeptofDefense report."
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
But, said Andrew Erickson, research director of the @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute @NavalWarCollege, “as impressive as those numbers are, without a significant network of robust overseas facilities, their ability to use them falls off rapidly w distance from China.” #Ream #Base
