Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #RussiaInvadesUkraine
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So now we have it: #Putin is escalating #RussiaInvadesUkraine. The events that started unfolding today indicate that we will experience a repetition of the week of 21 Februar (recognition of #DLNR and beginning of the invasion) – only at a different level.
#StandwithUkraine
#StandwithUkraine
All four occupied or partly occupied territories (Luhansk, Donezk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) have declared they will hold (fake) referenda 23-27 September. This looks very much like a concerted action, steered from Moscow (and, in the Kremlin administration, Sergey Kirienko).
Statements coming from the State Duma and the RU MFA support this assumption. Chief propagandist Margarita Simonyan (once again) calls upon Putin to „take the territories home“.
Noteworthy quote from #Lavrov today. By pointing out that the "geography" of #RussiainvadesUkraine has changed + is no longer about the #Donbas but about the southern "and several other" territories, he seems to put in perspective his boss's statement in Tehran last night. 🧵1/8
Dodging the question whether he was ready to meet #Zelensky, #Putin referred to the Istanbul Communiqué of 29/03, which (would have) stipulated, among other things, the withdrawal of 🇷🇺troops behind the lines of 24/02. "We almost had a deal", he said. 2/8
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
The Istanbul Communique died a lonely death in the weeks that followed, and 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 negotiations ground to a halt. Why Putin referred to it so explicitly yesterday - I have no idea. But apparently there was a need for ex-post clarification in Moscow. 3/8
#Russia unleashed terror to suppress the resistance of local residents in the temporarily occupied south #Ukraine.
@TextyOrgUA finds out who, how & why is persecuting the Ukrainians & what to do to avoid being detained by the "regime guard dogs"🧵
1/15
texty.org.ua/articles/10682…
@TextyOrgUA finds out who, how & why is persecuting the Ukrainians & what to do to avoid being detained by the "regime guard dogs"🧵
1/15
texty.org.ua/articles/10682…
Informants & traitors make up the backbone of "punitive bodies" in #Russia-occupied areas of #Ukraine: local councillors from pro-Russian parties, law enforcement officials of various ranks & #Kherson residents who have been opposing de-Sovietization in pre-war times.
2/15
2/15
Traitors have been long engaged in collecting information about the situation on the ground, leaking details of pro-Ukrainian activists & military. After #RussianOccupation their work became "legal".
Still, Russian collaborators remain scarce in numbers.
#RussiaUkraineWar
3/15
Still, Russian collaborators remain scarce in numbers.
#RussiaUkraineWar
3/15
The mood in Moscow is swinging back to “we can win this thing”. This is very dangerous.
To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)
#RussiainvadesUkraine
To all who currently think aloud about 🇺🇦 giving up territory to end the war, the West provoking 🇷🇺 too hard or irreversibly pushing it into China’s arms, (1/8)
#RussiainvadesUkraine
or a sanctions for grain deal (West partially lifting sanctions and 🇷🇺 ending blockade of 🇺🇦 ports - which is what Moscow cunningly demands): please be aware that you are corroborating this fatal belief in Moscow! (2/8)
@meduzaproject says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8)
👇👇👇
meduza.io/en/feature/202…
👇👇👇
meduza.io/en/feature/202…
Alice Schwarzer findet @kstade jetzt sei "ein guter Zeitpunkt" für Verhandlungen und "sowohl Putin als auch Selenskyj verschlimmern durch Macho-Gehabe die Situation".
Wow. Da hat Alice Schwarzer aber einiges nicht verstanden. 1/6
#RussiainvadesUkraine
#WeStandwithUkraine
👇👇👇
Wow. Da hat Alice Schwarzer aber einiges nicht verstanden. 1/6
#RussiainvadesUkraine
#WeStandwithUkraine
👇👇👇
Die Behauptung beiderseitiger Verantwortung für den Krieg ist grundfalsch. 🇷🇺führt einen völkerrechtswidrigen und verbrecherischen Angriffskrieg. 🇺🇦 führt einen legitimen Verteidigungskrieg. Gleichwohl lieben ganz linke und ganz rechte Kreise in 🇩🇪 dieses unsinnige Argument. 2/6
Die 🇷🇺Politik ist schon lange von Chauvinismus und Misogynie gekennzeichnet. Das zeigt sich nach Innen, wo ein vollständig von Männern dominiertes, diktatorisches Regime nun die letzten Räume (nicht nur) für feministische Aktivitäten schließt - von LGBTI ganz zu schweigen. 3/6
There seems to be a notable shift in RU‘s propaganda this week. On 04/04 RIA Novosti published an article by a certain Timofey Sergeytsev which spells out (again) some of the key RU war goals: 🧵 1/9
#RussiainvadesUkraine
ria.ru/20220403/ukrai…
#RussiainvadesUkraine
ria.ru/20220403/ukrai…
„denazification needs to be pursued by the victor“ (= no compromise with UA is possible) and „the denazified country cannot be sovereign“ (= independent UA is to be wiped off the map). But Sergeytsev‘s interpretation of „denazification“ differs significantly 2/9
from the previous use of the term, incl in official statements. The gist of his „oeuvre“ is that „denazification“ not only concerns UA pol leadership, but needs to be extended to ALL OF UA, bc the majority of the population supported UA’s „fascist leadership“. 3/9
I was asked to think about possible end states and European security for an expert roundtable. It is still very early to discuss this, but here are my thoughts. I organize them around the question of the existence of an independent UA state, 🧵1/12
#RussiainvadesUkraine
#RussiainvadesUkraine
because this is what this war is about: RU has attacked to destroy UA as an independent state; UA fights back to preserve their independent statehood.
4 scenarios:
1. RU wins, UA ceases to exist as an independent state. Moscow installs some kind of puppet regime in Kyiv, 2/12
4 scenarios:
1. RU wins, UA ceases to exist as an independent state. Moscow installs some kind of puppet regime in Kyiv, 2/12
large parts of UA will be permanently occupied by RU and proxy troops; like BY UA will become an integral part of the space controlled by RU, and this space will have a direct boundary with the EU and NATO. 3/12
#RussiaInvadesUkraine As Putin´s troops are bombing Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine some say that NATO also "bombed Belgrade" in 1999. I'm not in Kyiv but I was in Belgrade. No, NATO did not bomb Belgrade or other cities in Serbia into ruins. 1/
At that time, some in Belgrade even climbed onto the roofs to observe the impact, so great was the confidence in the accuracy of the NATO airstrikes, at least in the capital. Targets included the General Staff building, Batajnica Airport, but also 2/...
the Chinese embassy or the TV building. No, NATO did not target residential buildings, theaters, schools or supermarkets like Putin's troops do. After 79 days, Serbia's autocrat Slobodan Milosevic gave in and withdrew his troops from Kosovo 3/
#RussiaInvadesUkraine Die Nato habe ja 1999 auch "Belgrad bombardiert", wie jetzt Putins Truppen Kiew und andere Städte in der Ukraine, relativieren einige. Ich bin nicht in Kiew, war aber in Belgrad. Nein, die Nato hat weder Belgrad noch andere Städte in Serbien zerbombt. 1/
Einige in Belgrad sind damals auf die Dächer gestiegen, um die Einschläge zu beobachten, so gross war zumindest in der Hauptstadt das Vertrauen in die Zielgenaugigkeit der Nato-Luftangriffe. Ziele waren etwa das Gebäude des Generalstabs, der Flughafen Batajnica, aber auch 2/...
die chinesische Botschaft oder das Fernsehgebäude. Nein, die Nato hat nicht wie Putins Truppen gezielt Wohnhäuser, Theater, Schulen, Supermärkte bombardiert. Nach 79 Tagen lenkte Serbiens Autokrat Slobodan Milosevic ein und zog seine Truppen aus dem Kosovo zurück 3/
⚡(1/5) The Central Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine states that mercenaries are being recruited in 🇸🇾Syria and 🇱🇾Libya for the war against 🇺🇦Ukraine.
radiosvoboda.org/a/news-syriyts…
radiosvoboda.org/a/news-syriyts…
(2/5) According to intelligence, 🇷🇺Russia has opened recruitment centers in 🇸🇾Syria in the territory controlled by the regime of Bashar al-Assad. 14 mercenary recruitment centers are located in Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor.
(3/5) After training, mercenaries will be transported to 🇷🇺Russia via Hmeimim airbase by two Tu-134 aircraft (up to 80 passengers) and Tu-154 (up to 180 passengers) to Chkalovsky airbase, #Moscow region.
I had no hope anything would come of the meeting of FMs #Kuleba and #Lavrov yesterday. 2 days ago I wrote that Moscow was beginning to feel the sanctions pressure – and looking for diplomatic wiggle room, without, however, dropping its maximalist positions:
#RussiainvadesUkraine
#RussiainvadesUkraine
demilitarisation of Ukraine and neutrality, recognition of Crimea annexation + DLNR. At his presser today Lavrov even went back to blustering about the „fascist junta“ in Kyiv. There was a lot of talk afterwards about Lavrov’s remoteness from the centre of decision making... 2/10
...in the Kremlin. This has been a well-known fact for many years. And yes, he seemed nervous and fiddled during the presser. His position has changed – from a professional and experienced diplomat, feared, loathed, but also respected and even admired by some in the West, 3/10
Moscow is starting to feel the pressure. What makes me say this?
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
1. RU seems stuck militarily. A big chunk of the RU force is already involved in the war. There are problems with reinforcements, heavy casualties and equipment losses.
#RussiainvadesUkraine 1/8
The goals of the „spec-op“ have not been reached so far. RU seems hesitant to storm Kyiv or Odesa – street fighting in 2 big cities would be a major risk under the circumstances. The idea to occupy the whole or large parts of the country seems even more unrealistic.
2/8
2/8
2. Unprecedented sanctions imposed with unprecedented pace start to bite. So does international isolation, even if Beijing signals continuing support. Western weapons supplies to UA not to be underestimated in this context either.
3/8
3/8
My take of the talks so far and the failure of the humanitarian corridor around Mariupol: RU is not serious about the negotiations. Putin and his cronies do not care about humanitarian suffering either. I rest my case: 1/6
#RussiainvadesUkraine
#RussiainvadesUkraine
2/6 the composition of the RU delegation said it all, from the very beginning. Medinsky and Slutsky are policy clowns sent there to mess with the Ukrainian side. I do believe that the RU military is under pressure to end the operation. They have problems with reserves...
3/6 ...and supplies, and they suffer more losses than they ever expected. But Putin is not ready to consider retreat, compromise. Plus the majority of RU population are either supportive or silent with exhaustion. The protests are limited to the unhappy minority, which...
Some thoughts about why the Kremlin could miscalculate so catastrophically on basically everything: the steadfastness of the UA leadership, the resolve to resist in UA society, UA military capabilities, and their own capability to figth this war.
I see three factors:🧵1/11
I see three factors:🧵1/11
1. There is a blatant lack of knowledge and understanding in RU about political and societal developments in neighbouring countries. They used to be part of the Soviet Union until 1991. After independence RU was first too poor to fund proper research on basically anything. 2/11
In the 2000s, attention shifted to other topics, notably China/Asia. I remember the director of a big research institute telling my once that their attempt to create a department about Russia’s immediate neighbourhood was met with indifference if not ridicule. 3/11
🧵 Starting a thread to compile links and resources shared in the @TwitterSpaces run by @walterlekh and others to help #Ukraine
🇺🇦🌻💙💛
#StandWithUkraine #RussianInvasionOfUkraine
🇺🇦🌻💙💛
#StandWithUkraine #RussianInvasionOfUkraine
Want to help? Here is the best place to donate money that goes directly to people in #Ukraine via @walterlekh
Here is some info to share about Tactical Combat Casualty Care translated into Ukrainian
🧵Update from Professor Mychailo Wynnyckyj, Kyiv Mohilo Academia.
Thoughts from Kyiv - evening Feb 28
1.Air raid warning means time to think and write in the basement. Family is safe. Planes flying overhead but no explosions nearby.
Thoughts from Kyiv - evening Feb 28
1.Air raid warning means time to think and write in the basement. Family is safe. Planes flying overhead but no explosions nearby.
2. Two valuational/behavioral contrasts that strike me as worthy of analysis in this war:
hierarchy vs. heterarchy (spontaneous teams)
passivity vs. agency (collective and personal)
hierarchy vs. heterarchy (spontaneous teams)
passivity vs. agency (collective and personal)
3. When Russian soldiers entered Ukraine (and as they continue to invade) they were following orders. The hierarchy told them to move in, so they moved. That's the way things work in an army
#Киев, Жуляны, ул. Лобановского 6а, в жилой дом что-то прилетело t.me/operativnoZSU/…
#Киев, Жуляны, ул. Лобановского 6а, последствия прилета в дом ВОП #RussiaInvadesUkraine
"Российские войска не бомбят украинские города" (с) Небензя
t.me/The3rdForceUA/… #Киев #RussiaInvadesUkraine
t.me/The3rdForceUA/… #Киев #RussiaInvadesUkraine
Live: #Russia launches war with #Ukraine :
Russian helicopters try to seize Hostomel cargo airport near Kyiv. Two are reportedly shot down.
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
#RussiaInvadesUkraine
Russian helicopters try to seize Hostomel cargo airport near Kyiv. Two are reportedly shot down.
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
#RussiaInvadesUkraine
Live: #Russia launches war with #Ukraine :
People take cover in Kharkiv metro. Russian troops are reported near the city.
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
#RussiaInvadesUkraine
People take cover in Kharkiv metro. Russian troops are reported near the city.
#RussiaUkraineCrisis
#RussiaInvadesUkraine
#war #Kyiv #Ukraine #Russia Collecting all reports thread; Ukraine's operational command says "cruise and ballistic missile strikes are underway at the control centres in Kyiv" from @lukeharding1968 Friends report explosions in #Kyiv, #Odessa #Kharkiv #Mykolaev thread, add info
Targets include airfields and military headquarters, operational command says
"Distant crumps - soft explosions - reported from west Kyiv, towards the airport. Not Cruise missiles, i think, but sounds like an attack on the airport." @JohnSweeney
