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How could you increase your win rate (%) as a swing trader?
Here are a few tricks I personally use that can help you 👇🧵
Here are a few tricks I personally use that can help you 👇🧵
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come
#SPX
$SPX
A low #CPI triggered a 114-point jump that took it above the dominant trendline. At the open, sell orders above that level initiated a pullback that took it 126 points down to the 20DMA
Not what we would call a 1-day reversal, more upside to come
#SPX
The market today:
$SPX / $SPY / $ES
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#SPX #ES_F #trading #options #futures #daytrading #TradingSignals
$SPX / $SPY / $ES
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#SPX #ES_F #trading #options #futures #daytrading #TradingSignals
$DIA / $DJI / $YM
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#DIA #DJIA #DowJones #trading #options #Futures #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #TradingSignals #YM_F
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its upward trending channel
It bounced from channel support
#DIA #DJIA #DowJones #trading #options #Futures #OptionsTrading #DayTrading #TradingSignals #YM_F
$QQQ / $NDX / $NQ
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its short-term upward trending channel and its mid-term downward channel
It bounced near channel support
#QQQ #NASDAQ #IXIC #NDX #trading #OptionsTrading #Futures #NQ_F #daytrading
It closed below the key 20DMA in higher volume than yesterday
It's still in its short-term upward trending channel and its mid-term downward channel
It bounced near channel support
#QQQ #NASDAQ #IXIC #NDX #trading #OptionsTrading #Futures #NQ_F #daytrading
Portfolio snapshot -
Long - $ADYEY $AFRM $AMPL $CFLT $DDOG
$DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA
$S $SE $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Short - $ARKK #RTY_F
After raising cash at start of Dec, am now done re-investing. Portfolio is hedged via $ARKK + net short via #RTY_F.
Long - $ADYEY $AFRM $AMPL $CFLT $DDOG
$DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MELI $MNDY $OKTA
$S $SE $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Short - $ARKK #RTY_F
After raising cash at start of Dec, am now done re-investing. Portfolio is hedged via $ARKK + net short via #RTY_F.
Secular growth stocks have already been murdered!
Most are down 50-75% from their ATHs and even $ARKK declined by 60% from its ATH and gave back all of its post-COVID gains (this, despite the fact that the underlying companies grew rapidly in 2020/2021).
Cont...
Most are down 50-75% from their ATHs and even $ARKK declined by 60% from its ATH and gave back all of its post-COVID gains (this, despite the fact that the underlying companies grew rapidly in 2020/2021).
Cont...
In January, $ARKK bottomed at $64 and then tested that low a few days later.
After the recent rally, current pullback has found support *above* last month's lows. Base formation seems to have begun and the crash is in the rear view mirror. This is time to scale in and buy fear.
After the recent rally, current pullback has found support *above* last month's lows. Base formation seems to have begun and the crash is in the rear view mirror. This is time to scale in and buy fear.
Secular growth stocks showing strength, most consolidating above last month's lows.
They peaked before the indices, probable they'll also bottom out before the broad market.
After 50-80% declines between Nov-Jan, the crash is behind us. DCA over next 5-6 weeks should work.
They peaked before the indices, probable they'll also bottom out before the broad market.
After 50-80% declines between Nov-Jan, the crash is behind us. DCA over next 5-6 weeks should work.
The indices are still vulnerable to a final leg down which will likely also affect the growth stocks.
This is why weekly buying over the next 5-6 weeks is probably the safer option. As soon as the Fed backs away or gives clarity, these secular growth stocks will take off.
This is why weekly buying over the next 5-6 weeks is probably the safer option. As soon as the Fed backs away or gives clarity, these secular growth stocks will take off.
To those who are chirping, my message has been clear for weeks -
Growth stocks peaked before the indices, likely they'll bottom before the indices or at least start showing relative strength.
Broad market (which is still ~10% below ATH) remains vulnerable to a final flush.
Growth stocks peaked before the indices, likely they'll bottom before the indices or at least start showing relative strength.
Broad market (which is still ~10% below ATH) remains vulnerable to a final flush.
1)Portfolio Jan-end -
$ADYEY $AFRM $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $S $SE $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +641.57% (44.73%pa)
$ACWI +71.89% (10.51%pa)
$SPX +108.00% (14.47%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $AFRM $CFLT $DDOG $DLO $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MNDY $OKTA $S $SE $SOFI $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $ZI
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +641.57% (44.73%pa)
$ACWI +71.89% (10.51%pa)
$SPX +108.00% (14.47%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2022)-
Portfolio (-)4.18%
$ACWI (-)4.96%
$SPX (-)5.26%
Biggest positions -
1) $DDOG 2) $CFLT 3) $ZI 4) $GTLB 5) $MELI
Contd....
Portfolio (-)4.18%
$ACWI (-)4.96%
$SPX (-)5.26%
Biggest positions -
1) $DDOG 2) $CFLT 3) $ZI 4) $GTLB 5) $MELI
Contd....
3) Commentary -
January was tough for stocks and it was especially brutal for growth stocks!
Before the month-end rally, $ARKK was down ~30% from the start of the year and both $ACWI and $SPX were down ~10%. The rally over the past couple of trading sessions eased some pain...
January was tough for stocks and it was especially brutal for growth stocks!
Before the month-end rally, $ARKK was down ~30% from the start of the year and both $ACWI and $SPX were down ~10%. The rally over the past couple of trading sessions eased some pain...
1)Portfolio Dec-end -
Long - $ADYEY $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $S $SE $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $TLT
Short - $ARKK, Russell 2000 futures #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +672.73% (46.76%pa)
$ACWI +80.02% (11.66%pa)
$SPX +119.60% (15.90%pa)
Contd...
Long - $ADYEY $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $S $SE $SOFI $TOST $TWLO $TLT
Short - $ARKK, Russell 2000 futures #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +672.73% (46.76%pa)
$ACWI +80.02% (11.66%pa)
$SPX +119.60% (15.90%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return (2021)-
Portfolio +21.81%
$ACWI +16.80%
$SPX +26.89%
Biggest positions -
1) $TLT 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $MQ 5) $SOFI
Contd....
Portfolio +21.81%
$ACWI +16.80%
$SPX +26.89%
Biggest positions -
1) $TLT 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $MQ 5) $SOFI
Contd....
3) Commentary -
December was a brutal month for growth stocks as the previous month's selling continued before a relief rally briefly reversed the downtrend.
At the beginning of the month, I sold out of all stocks and around mid-month, positioned my portfolio for the post-QE..
December was a brutal month for growth stocks as the previous month's selling continued before a relief rally briefly reversed the downtrend.
At the beginning of the month, I sold out of all stocks and around mid-month, positioned my portfolio for the post-QE..
Mid-month portfolio snapshot -
$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD
$MELI $MQ $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #RTY_F #DXY
Short $ARKK
$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD
$MELI $MQ $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UPST $ZI #RTY_F #DXY
Short $ARKK
Top 5 positions (% allocation) -
1) $SE
2) $MELI
3) $SNOW
4) $GLBE
5) $U
Portfolio currently hedged but GTC buy stop to remove the $ARKK short less than 100bps higher. Its been a super choppy summer/autumn with many whipsaws but this is the price I pay to protect my capital.
1) $SE
2) $MELI
3) $SNOW
4) $GLBE
5) $U
Portfolio currently hedged but GTC buy stop to remove the $ARKK short less than 100bps higher. Its been a super choppy summer/autumn with many whipsaws but this is the price I pay to protect my capital.
Sharing my portfolio holdings so you know what I own and am eating my own cooking....but, please do your own due diligence before investing.
I make mistakes from time to time and this is why my portfolio typically has 18-22 companies.
Size your bets carefully, its your money.
I make mistakes from time to time and this is why my portfolio typically has 18-22 companies.
Size your bets carefully, its your money.
1)Portfolio Oct-end -
$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +779.77% (52.29%pa)
$ACWI +79.25% (11.95%pa)
$SPX +112.10% (15.65%pa)
Contd...
$ADYEY $AFRM $CRWD $DLO $GLBE $LILM $LSPD $MELI $MQ $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QS $SE $SHOP $SNOW $TOST $TWLO $U $UBER $UPST $ZI #RTY_F
Return since 1 Sept '16 -
Portfolio +779.77% (52.29%pa)
$ACWI +79.25% (11.95%pa)
$SPX +112.10% (15.65%pa)
Contd...
2) YTD return -
Portfolio +39.18%
$ACWI +16.10%
$SPX +22.61%
Biggest positions -
1) $SE 2) $MQ 3) $AFRM 3) $MELI 4) $MTTR
Contd....
Portfolio +39.18%
$ACWI +16.10%
$SPX +22.61%
Biggest positions -
1) $SE 2) $MQ 3) $AFRM 3) $MELI 4) $MTTR
Contd....
3) Commentary -
October was a decent month as my portfolio rebounded with the broad market.
During the month, I grabbed shares of $AFRM $MQ $QS and $TOST and in order to raise cash for these, sold out of a few lower conviction or more mature companies in my portfolio....
October was a decent month as my portfolio rebounded with the broad market.
During the month, I grabbed shares of $AFRM $MQ $QS and $TOST and in order to raise cash for these, sold out of a few lower conviction or more mature companies in my portfolio....
