Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #October7Surprise
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Japan finally released rules last week touted as aligning with US export controls released last year @ #October7Surprise. But Japanese rule did not mention China, and was far from a complete mirroring of the US controls. What is going on here? Well, its complicated. A thread.🧵
First, media reports continue to talk about a “three way agreement” btwn US, Japan, and the Netherlands. The Japanese rule release demonstrates that each country will release unilateral controls.
Japan in this case has adopted very different controls from the 7 October US package.
ft.com/content/768966…
ft.com/content/768966…
#October7Surprise US exports controls specifically on advanced computing related semiconductors, graphical processing units (GPUs) in particular, are difficult to understand. A speculative thread. 🧵
Semiconductors that could fall w/in scope of new controls: GPUs, tensor processing units (TPUs), neural processors, in-memory + vision processors, text = adaptive processors, coprocessors/accelerators, field-programmable logic devices (FPLDs), and ASICs.
But how and who will decide which of these semiconductors, particularly in complex systems configurations now typical in the industry, meet the threshold for performances? Discussions with government industry officials suggest some major confusion here. Some thoughts follow.
#October7Surprise China’s domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) industry is perhaps the most overlooked party to the October 7 export control package.
A Thread.
A Thread.
I wrote about the overall semiconductor industry in China, government strategies and policies, including the tool maker segment here: americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/02/the-fu…
As @JPKleinhans and @JohnLee laid out nicely in their piece here: thediplomat.com/2021/09/mappin… Chinese domestic tool makers are well behind global counterparts, which is not surprising given their late entry to the market, and innovative capacity of US, Dutch, and Japanese leaders.
#October7Surprise Prospects for China getting around Oct 7 controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment by enticing non-US vendors and governments to go against US preferences.
Thread 🧵
Thread 🧵
As the very insightful @fudaoge notes, the de-Americanization option for foreign vendors is a tough one, and is caught by the US persons provisions added to 2018 ECRA but now weaponized: chinatechtales.wordpress.com/2022/11/06/as-…
Then there is the question of whether Japanese players would be willing to really fall on their sword on this one, including possibly going against METI. Already Tokyo Electron is putting out figures for losses resulting from controls in China: asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/…
