Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Oblasts
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1/8. It’s time for some careful diplomacy by Europe/the West (& Japan) with individual #Oblasts, #Republics & #Krais in Russia. Explanation below:
2/8. Unless #Putin is overthrown, Russia is a mess financially & militarily & will be unable to support them anyway. With its latest actions & nuclear threats, Russia needs some pairing down, as it’s become a reckless, marauding danger to the entire planet & now’s the time.
3/8. Diplomacy would include lifting sanctions in these areas to encourage breakaway from Russian rule & future protection from Russia which will be much smaller and weaker.
My five kopecks on the current "correlation of forces" here in #Ukraine, building on @jhzachau's and my rough scenarios outline for the @SCEEUS_UI @UISweden below:
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
1. It is now increasingly likely that some kind of #Russian escalation will happen.
ui.se/forskning/cent…
2. This could, for instance, aim to bring the borders of the so-called "people's republics" in the #Donbas in line with their "constitutions" which claim that the entire #Donetsk and #Luhansk #oblasts belong to these pseudo-states.
3. Intensified shelling by the “republics” of government-controlled locations as well as an array of non-kinetic attacks on #Ukraine have already begun. kyivindependent.com/national/over-…
