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I bet at least *some* of you have checked TropicalTidbits.com or windy.com and seen the 0Z Euro -- a Cat 3 hurricane (#FIONA) making landfall near St Margarets Bay next Sat AM.
Before you say "we're doomed" let me explain a bit. #NSwx #NBwx #PEwx #NLwx (1/x)
Before you say "we're doomed" let me explain a bit. #NSwx #NBwx #PEwx #NLwx (1/x)
This is only ONE of several possible solutions. The other two major global models (GFS and CMC) show solutions that are either weaker (CMC) or much farther east (GFS).
(2/x)
(2/x)
Here are the ensembles (multiple runs of the same model with slightly perturbed initial conditions) for #FIONA.
As you can see, there's still considerable uncertainty in the track, however, the GFS is a bit farther east than the Euro.
Why? (3/x)
As you can see, there's still considerable uncertainty in the track, however, the GFS is a bit farther east than the Euro.
Why? (3/x)
