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A few takeaways from an eventful #txenergy/#ERCOT day:
- A major coal plant tripped at 7pm during the conservation call.
- Storage picked up the slack in a major way.
- The new backup reserve ECRS was deployed for 5 hrs.
- Prices were in the $1000's/MWh for ~4 hours.
#txlege 1/
- A major coal plant tripped at 7pm during the conservation call.
- Storage picked up the slack in a major way.
- The new backup reserve ECRS was deployed for 5 hrs.
- Prices were in the $1000's/MWh for ~4 hours.
#txlege 1/
At 7:00, when reserves were very tight and a conservation call was in effect, a coal plant went offline.
This happens *a lot* during extreme temperatures. We'll know if a few days which plant it was. Happily for Texans, battery storage filled in the gap... (cont). #txenergy 2/
This happens *a lot* during extreme temperatures. We'll know if a few days which plant it was. Happily for Texans, battery storage filled in the gap... (cont). #txenergy 2/
Storage replaced 75% of the lost coal in minutes.
Here you can see coal plants producing 11,744MW at 6:54pm; 10 minutes later it's down to 11,176. That's a sudden loss of 568MW.
At 6:54pm, batteries were producing 360MW. By 7:04, storage ramped to 783MW, an increase of 423MW.
Here you can see coal plants producing 11,744MW at 6:54pm; 10 minutes later it's down to 11,176. That's a sudden loss of 568MW.
At 6:54pm, batteries were producing 360MW. By 7:04, storage ramped to 783MW, an increase of 423MW.
#ERCOT grid update: Things will be tight on the grid today and tomorrow — very tight. ERCOT projecting 82.9 gigawatt peak @ 4pm and a spread between supply and demand of only 1800 megawatts tomorrow around 7pm. #txlege #energytwitter 1/
Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter #txenergy
... is still producing ~9GW in the hour of tightest reserves. The 3+GW of batteries in ERCOT are mostly providing backup reserves in case of shortage (like when a major power plant goes offline like a nuke did last week) but is also injecting 500MW to the market when needed. 3/
Still no "in depth operations review of resource availability" during Elliot from #ERCOT.
No presentation has been made to the @PUCTX about the 14.2GW of thermal generation offline 12/23 at 9am or the 30GW offline at some point 12/22-12/24. #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/
No presentation has been made to the @PUCTX about the 14.2GW of thermal generation offline 12/23 at 9am or the 30GW offline at some point 12/22-12/24. #txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/
SPP put out some easy to read bar charts, so here's one I made, based off @cohan_ds info (I adjusted the rated capacity based on SARA report minus the mothballed plants).
Does this look like a major improvement to you? #txlege #energytwitter #ERCOT
Does this look like a major improvement to you? #txlege #energytwitter #ERCOT
I detailed the many coal & gas plants offline during Elliot in this thread 12/29. #ERCOT has this info, of cousre. It was posted on their website in raw form in December. It's now two months later, still no comprehensive report or root cause analysis.
The Texas energy-only market is, to reprise Churchill, the worst form of energy market except for every other. It needs to evolve but should not be abandoned.
Big Senate hearing about the future of the #ERCOT market tomorrow. #txlege #txenergy 1/
douglewin.substack.com/p/a-reliable-a…
Big Senate hearing about the future of the #ERCOT market tomorrow. #txlege #txenergy 1/
douglewin.substack.com/p/a-reliable-a…
In the last 2 yrs, generating companies added 2,000MW of gas plants and they added another 393MW *last month* alone! There are 2,500MW w/ signed interconnections & another 10,000MW in the interconnection process.
There's no need for a PCM or the state to buy gas plants! 2/
There's no need for a PCM or the state to buy gas plants! 2/
Electric generating companies are also adding wind, solar, and storage, making Texas among the top states in all three. That's good! It saves consumers a lot of money: $1 billion a month last year through August! (And lowers pollution, too!)
#energytwitter
utilitydive.com/news/texas-sol…
#energytwitter
utilitydive.com/news/texas-sol…
About 800,000 Texans are heading into tonight w/out power. It doesn't have to be this way. Distributed energy resources (local generation & storage) along w/ weatherization for homes and buildings could make the grid much more resilient. #txlege 1/
douglewin.substack.com/p/local-outage…
douglewin.substack.com/p/local-outage…
I often hear people say that local outages aren't problems with the power grid. It the job of policymakers & regulators to make sure *all* of it works and is reliable—not just part of it.
The grid is divided into transmission (ERCOT) & the distribution sides... (cont.) 2/
The grid is divided into transmission (ERCOT) & the distribution sides... (cont.) 2/
TX Power 🧵1/11
Under @GovAbbott's leadership, TX has increased its electricity-generating capacity to the point where the state generates 2.76 times as much as CA. On a per capita basis, TX has about 4.01 kW capacity per person, while CA has about 1.45 kW per person.
Under @GovAbbott's leadership, TX has increased its electricity-generating capacity to the point where the state generates 2.76 times as much as CA. On a per capita basis, TX has about 4.01 kW capacity per person, while CA has about 1.45 kW per person.
TX Power 🧵2/11
Under @GovAbbott's leadership, TX has grown wind power generating capacity per person to 1.07 kW compared to CA's .21 kW per person (5X more).
TX generates 31,118 megawatts of wind power while CA generates only 8,183 megawatts.
Under @GovAbbott's leadership, TX has grown wind power generating capacity per person to 1.07 kW compared to CA's .21 kW per person (5X more).
TX generates 31,118 megawatts of wind power while CA generates only 8,183 megawatts.
TX Power 🧵3/11
But it is VITAL to realize that the actual power grid - called #ERCOT - is run by a board of 11 people selected by a committee of 3 people - one appointed by @GovAbbott, one by @DanPatrick, & one by @DadePhelan - the ERCOT board is now 100% independent.
But it is VITAL to realize that the actual power grid - called #ERCOT - is run by a board of 11 people selected by a committee of 3 people - one appointed by @GovAbbott, one by @DanPatrick, & one by @DadePhelan - the ERCOT board is now 100% independent.
A few #TXenergy takeaways as we thaw:
1) The grid's still vulnerable. #ERCOT CEO requested an emergency order yesterday, writing ERCOT “may not be able to avoid the need to curtail firm load.” That is, outage risk was real. He cited “natural gas delivery limitations.” #txlege 1/
1) The grid's still vulnerable. #ERCOT CEO requested an emergency order yesterday, writing ERCOT “may not be able to avoid the need to curtail firm load.” That is, outage risk was real. He cited “natural gas delivery limitations.” #txlege 1/
Heard about this from @shelbywebb, see below. The language from ERCOT CEO Vegas was clear: "the loss of power to homes and local businesses in the areas that may be affected by curtailments presents a far greater risk to public health and safety."
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
2) Communications are still terrible. Not one state official held a press conference or did a media availability to inform the public of this letter or why it was needed. This from @adelauchida was a common experience among journalists yesterday.
#txlege
#txlege
Grid update: Demand forecast is much lower than last night but ERCOT missed its forecast by 23% last night so that's cold comfort. A miss that bad tonight & conditions would be tight. Reports of gas supply ⬇️ 8bcf overall, ~3bcf in the Permian. Gas/coal outages ~9.5GW. #txlege 1/
Add it all up & still low chance of outages tonight, though higher than last night, esp. given the massive demand miss. #ERCOT and @PUCTX simply have to get better at forecasting demand and improving #energyefficiency. More on that here: 2/
douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
I said coming into this the two biggest wild card were power demand & gas supply. The drops in gas output weren't enough to cause problems yet. I don't think this level of reduction would cause outages. Keepin an eye on it though. #energytwitter #natgas 3/
Don't forget that estimation for peak Uri demand was by ERCOT, which is off by ~8GW tonight. Note that @AndrewDessler and student Jangho Lee published research estimating Uri demand at ~82GW. These forecast misses are a major problem. #txlege 1/
eartharxiv.org/repository/vie…
eartharxiv.org/repository/vie…
I said before the storm the 2 biggest wild cards were forecast misses & nat gas supply. If natgas craters due to the freeze, tomorrow night could be problematic. The risk of outages, though still low, is higher now that before bc of the big forecast miss.
This was Recommendation 16 from FERC and NERC. #ERCOT & @PUCTX will need to answer questions about why this forecast was so far off. Did they "add staff with specialized knowledge of how weather impacts load including supplemental electric heating?" 3/
ferc.gov/media/february…
ferc.gov/media/february…
ERCOT’s hourly loads are projected to peak at 70.1 GW tomorrow at 8 am, which is above the peak rates seen during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 (69.2 GW.) #natgas #ongt #ercot
The Senate weighed in on the grid & the @PUCTX's proposed market design changes last week. Today, the House State Affairs Cmte meets to ask questions of the PUC, #ERCOT, the Independent Market Monitor & industry. I'll tweet some highlights here. #txlege 1/
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
@PUCTX Livestream is here and the first panel has just started.
tlchouse.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
Another good summary of the events of last week from @rtoinsider and @tkleckner1 here
rtoinsider.com/articles/31219…
tlchouse.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…
Another good summary of the events of last week from @rtoinsider and @tkleckner1 here
rtoinsider.com/articles/31219…
Chair Lake starts by saying it was "misinformation" that extremes weren't included in the study. They in fact did not include Uri.
Here's the quote from the study: "The 1980-2019 sample does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021... (cont.)
Here's the quote from the study: "The 1980-2019 sample does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021... (cont.)
The Texas Senate dealt a major setback to the efforts of the PUC Chair & some generators attempting to redesign the #ERCOT market, telling them to hold off. The PUCT's biggest mistake? They never defined the problems they're trying to solve. 1/🧵
#txlege
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
#txlege
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
Unfortunately, it seems that #txlege is repeating that mistake. I think there are three major problems we need to solve: (1) prolonged extreme winter storms (2) hot summer evenings & (3) cost.
*There is no one thing that will solve all of these problems*
utilitydive.com/news/texas-law…
*There is no one thing that will solve all of these problems*
utilitydive.com/news/texas-law…
We need to identify & diagnose the problem correctly. Acc'g to @FERC & @NERC_Official, during Uri, Texas had massive demand (spiked by inefficient heat) & frozen gas supply & power plants (made catastrophic by lack of effective regulation). #txenergy 3/
#ERCOT Winter Seasonal Assessment is out. While ERCOT and @PUCTX disputed @FERC's October assessment that we would have a deficit of 18GW in extreme cold, ERCOT finds in an extreme event, we would be short 9-12GW which would result in lenghty outages. #txlege 1/
The biggest problem with the SARA report is they only account for three major problems:
- high demand
- high thermal outages
- low wind
They still don't account for gas supply disruption, which could make outages >9-12GW in the winter. This is not yet fixed. #txenergy 2/
- high demand
- high thermal outages
- low wind
They still don't account for gas supply disruption, which could make outages >9-12GW in the winter. This is not yet fixed. #txenergy 2/
Good to see ERCOT finally acknolwedge that extreme winter demand could reach 80GW. I still think that undershoots it a bit (@AndrewDessler & team think demand in Feb 2021 was 82GW) but is closer to reality than ERCOT has ever acknowledged before. 3/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
Another week, more record-setting electric demand on the #ERCOT grid:
All-time record (Tuesday): 78.4GW
Projections for today: 79.5
Tomorrow: 80.8
Wednesday: 81.7 (higher than ERCOT's most extreme scenario)
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/thread
All-time record (Tuesday): 78.4GW
Projections for today: 79.5
Tomorrow: 80.8
Wednesday: 81.7 (higher than ERCOT's most extreme scenario)
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter 1/thread
It’s possible we’ll get more conservation alerts. If so, hopefully, @ERCOT_ISO and @PUCTX will get information out faster and be clearer about what resources are available. The public deserves more and better information.
#txlege #txenergy 2/
#txlege #txenergy 2/
Last week, on Sunday, PUCT and ERCOT said there were 12GW of "dispatchable” offline. It's not clear what that represents or why it's offline. On Wednesday, that number was up to 13GW. Note they lump all dispatchable into one category while separating out wind and solar. 3/
#ERCOT update: New weekend record broken yesterday w/ 77.4GW; expected to be ~77.5GW today. Very low chance of outages today, somewhat higher (though still low) tmrw when 80.5GW expected.
At 9AM, 6.5GW of gas/coal is unavailable, up from 4.9GW yesterday AM.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
At 9AM, 6.5GW of gas/coal is unavailable, up from 4.9GW yesterday AM.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
Yesterday, 500MW additional thermal (gas/coal) went offline as the day went on and overnight another 1000MW dropped. Hopefully some of those will come back on as the day goes on.
Remember, if there are rolling outages, they are likely to be short duration, nothing like Uri. 2/
Remember, if there are rolling outages, they are likely to be short duration, nothing like Uri. 2/
If you want to help, pre-cool your home or business in the AM tmrw. In a well functioning market, if you choose to help, you'd be paid to do this. This function would be automatic & you'd keep the thermostat where you want it in the PM, just a little cooler in the AM. 3/
The House State Affairs Committee is underway. @PUCTX Chair Peter Lake has made opening comment & now the questions have begun. Phil King is asking about a major market change called the Load Serving Entity Obligation which would add more costs. (cont.)
#energytwitter #txlege
#energytwitter #txlege
King wants to know if #txlege will be able to weigh in before the LSEO is implemented. The design of the LSEO is being done by E3 to "independently" analyze the proposal even though they proposed it for a big generator (NRG) last year.
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
@PhilKingTX expresses concerns about potential conflicts of interest from E3. He's right to be concerned.
@toddahunter says higher bills are coming and reminds the PUC Chair that the P in PUC stands for Public. Wants transparency for the public. cc: @DaveLieber
#txlege
@toddahunter says higher bills are coming and reminds the PUC Chair that the P in PUC stands for Public. Wants transparency for the public. cc: @DaveLieber
#txlege
At ERCOT Board meeting tmrw & at a Texas House Cmte Wed, #ERCOT’s Independent Market Monitor (IMM) will present. The IMM quantified the cost of recent @PUCTX policy changes in her ERCOT presentation & there are some shocking numbers. 1/🧵
#txlege #txenergy
renewableenergyworld.com/solar/the-stat…
#txlege #txenergy
renewableenergyworld.com/solar/the-stat…
Here’s the presentation she’ll make tomorrow. The kicker is in this slide: The “conservative operating posture” of the @PUCTX & @ERCOT_ISO have cost consumers a minimum of $670m over only five months. (The range is $670-$845m)
#txlege #energytwitter 2/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
#txlege #energytwitter 2/
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
The news here is the RUC costs, which market participants & consumer advocates have been sounding the alarm about for months. In my @REWorld article I said it was hard to tell exactly what RUCs cost, but now we know: $460m ytd thru 5/31/22. That’s more than I would've guessed. 3/
Interview w/ Doug Lewin of Stoic Energy.
There weren't only 6 tripped generator plants off line there were 16 others off line. 🤨😬
As I iterated repetitively last night, WHY wasn't maintenance done in Mar and Apr.
Forecast wasn't new news. #ERCOT
There weren't only 6 tripped generator plants off line there were 16 others off line. 🤨😬
As I iterated repetitively last night, WHY wasn't maintenance done in Mar and Apr.
Forecast wasn't new news. #ERCOT
ERCOT specifically requested May 4 that plants with planned maintenance for this week not do so due to temperature forecast.
So, they did it anyway?
So, they did it anyway?
See vid above #ERCOT ALL my TX followers.
@asc96b @TheRand2025 @TexasKelGirl @vinnieoftexas_ @textranquilo @Avery1776 @UrUnpaidPundit @SunshineSass2
et al ... all of y'all! ☺️
@asc96b @TheRand2025 @TexasKelGirl @vinnieoftexas_ @textranquilo @Avery1776 @UrUnpaidPundit @SunshineSass2
et al ... all of y'all! ☺️
It should surprise no one that the #ERCOT grid isn't fixed. There's a good chance there will be outages at some point over the next 3 days. Here's a look at what's going on.
1/🧵#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter
1/🧵#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter
A LOT of thermal power plants are out for maintenance (~16GW) & Friday, more broke: 6 gas plants = to ~3GW, roughly an Austin worth of power. I'll get into why power plants are breaking below.
#txenergy 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#txenergy 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Here are four key things to remember as Texans spend the weekend obsessively checking @ERCOT_ISO’s dashboard to see how the grid is holding up. 3/ ercot.com/gridmktinfo/da…
In the midst of this historic May heat wave, the @PUCTX meets this morning. Should be some interesting discussions of ongoing market design changes, transmission, etc. Tweet thread with a few updates below.
Agenda and livestream here:
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
#txlege #txenergy
Agenda and livestream here:
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
#txlege #txenergy
Staff filed a memo to implement #SB1281 on #transmission in #ERCOT. Commissioner Cobos says its important to alleviate congestion "Today's economic problem is tomorrow's reliability problem." We need to get these projects going.
Staff memo here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5340…
#txlege
Staff memo here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5340…
#txlege
Commissioners and staff having a discussion about how resiliency fits into reliability metrics.
Cmsr Glotfelty said "transmission is hard to build, takes a long time." He knows of what he speaks.
#energytwitter
Cmsr Glotfelty said "transmission is hard to build, takes a long time." He knows of what he speaks.
#energytwitter
This Saturday, ERCOT expects 69.3GW of demand, an insane amount for a weekend in early May.
Temps likely to be ~92-93 in DFW and Houston, 95 in Austin, 100 in Midland & 104 (!) in Laredo. These would likely be records (or near records) for May 7.
#txlege #txenergy #txwx 1/5
Temps likely to be ~92-93 in DFW and Houston, 95 in Austin, 100 in Midland & 104 (!) in Laredo. These would likely be records (or near records) for May 7.
#txlege #txenergy #txwx 1/5
I believe the previous record demand in May is ~67GW & all time summer peak is 74.8GW. That we would reach that much demand on a Saturday in May is extraordinary. Usually demand is much lower on the weekends. Extreme weather from #climatechange is already happening.
#txlege 2/5
#txlege 2/5
#ERCOT expects 20GW of thermal plants to be offline. Wind expected to be @ 12GW & solar's likely to break a record ~9GW. I expect every battery on the grid will be ready for peak @ 5pm. Still, there will likely be tight conditions. Buckle up.
#txlege #energytwitter 3/5
#txlege #energytwitter 3/5
#ERCOT Board meeting today at 8:30CT. I'm particularly interested in discussions of Item 14 (on FERC/NERC winter storm report) & Item 18 on ancillary services.
Agenda & materials here. ercot.com/calendar/event…
Stream here ercot.com/committees/boa…
#txlege #txenergy
Agenda & materials here. ercot.com/calendar/event…
Stream here ercot.com/committees/boa…
#txlege #txenergy
New board members are introduced: Bill Flores (former Congressman), Zin Smati and Bob Flexon (former energy executives), and John Swainson (former technology exec, most recently with Dell)
ercot.com/about/governan…
#txlege #txenergy
ercot.com/about/governan…
#txlege #txenergy
@ERCOT_ISO CEO Brad Jones makes an update, linked below. Lots of important material here incl. updates on securitization, weatherization, & the now famous Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy which projected shortages in similar conditions to last yr..
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
I’m deeply frustrated & concerned about the assessment of winter resource adequacy released by #ERCOT yesterday. *Everyone* agreed communication & planning needed improvement but yesterday demonstrated little has changed & it might be worse.
#txlege 1/🧵
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
#txlege 1/🧵
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
I was quoted in the @dallasnews on this assessment from ERCOT. “It’s a political document not reflective of reality,” I said and added that ERCOT’s quiet release of the report late Friday “speaks volumes.”
Allow me to explain. #energytwitter #txlege 2/18
Allow me to explain. #energytwitter #txlege 2/18
The assessment released yesterday is not a reflection of reality.
Why? Let’s focus on two things in ERCOT's “extreme scenario:”
(1) Forecasted demand
(2) Thermal outages
#txlege 3/18
Why? Let’s focus on two things in ERCOT's “extreme scenario:”
(1) Forecasted demand
(2) Thermal outages
#txlege 3/18
This update is starting now
carrolltontx.granicus.com/mediaplayer.ph…
#txlege #Txenergy
cc: @juliejohnsonTX @mattlargey
carrolltontx.granicus.com/mediaplayer.ph…
#txlege #Txenergy
cc: @juliejohnsonTX @mattlargey
ERCOT's Jones tells Carrollton City Council: Generation fleet lost 50,000MW because of equipment failure and lack of fuel supply. That's equal to all of California's peak and was more than half of Texas' entire generation fleet.
#txlege #txenergy
#txlege #txenergy
When we lose supply, we have turn to the load side to keep balance. We turn to large facilities that have given us the ability to turn down their usage. (he's talking about #demandresponse which we need more of!!!) Once that's exhausted we have to turn off residential customers.
