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@BlackRock the world leading providers of investment, advisory and risk management solutions based in New York City, filed for #BitcoinETF in push into #crypto
A thread š§µ
@BlackRock the world leading providers of investment, advisory and risk management solutions based in New York City, filed for #BitcoinETF in push into #crypto
A thread š§µ
This thread comprises š
1. What is #EFT
2. What is #BitcoinEFT
3. #BitcoinEFT Regulation
4. Advantages & Demerit of #BitcoinEFT
5. #BitcoinEFT or Owning #Bitcoin which is better.
1. What is #EFT
2. What is #BitcoinEFT
3. #BitcoinEFT Regulation
4. Advantages & Demerit of #BitcoinEFT
5. #BitcoinEFT or Owning #Bitcoin which is better.
1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil
/2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crudeās supposed āweaknessā since last Juneās highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make
/3 the case that Demand has somehow collapsed. This is nonsense & ignores the extraordinary SPR maneuvers that were employed in the wake of Russiaās invasion. Simply put, if ~600k b/d are dumped from the SPR, oil prices should drop, & they did. Extra SUPPLY. 222mm bbbls. Historic
1/While weāve all been bickering about banking contagion, bearish demand, US crude builds/adjustments and how to best play the cycle w/in the cycleā¦ some of the best #EFT follows are bringing attention to an important point. We still havenāt solved the underinvestment problemš§µ
2/The latest GoRozen @Go_Rozen commentary makes some great points in this regard. Below are some key excerpts, starting with capex, which remains for the Super Majors at less than half ($/BOE) the ā07-ā16 period avg.
3/ Next, the import role shale played in preventing an energy crisis last decade. I donāt think it can be understated how much of a windfall this was for the US and the world in general with access to reliable/affordable energy by adding 22.4Mboe/d ā10-ā20
As I was saying recently, small cap oil and gas companies are the most compelling to me here. Canadian midcaps have large followings these days ...
I was bullish Canadian oil and gas stocks when they were very out of favor. Now I'm even more focused on company specifics. Small cap seems to be where it's at, not the specific Canadian geography / trading jurisdiction.
Thread on California Gasoline Crisis:
1- I wish I was still teaching at the university. I would have used the recent Valero letter to the #California Energy Commission as the main reference for a two-hour lecture on the impact of public policy on the oil sector. $VLO #Oil #OOTT
1- I wish I was still teaching at the university. I would have used the recent Valero letter to the #California Energy Commission as the main reference for a two-hour lecture on the impact of public policy on the oil sector. $VLO #Oil #OOTT
The summer ends and things get busy. Haven't posted much, so here is my current stream of consciousness/ramblings. #EFT #OOTT
* Last Friday was scary - the air pockets in rates, the dollar, etc. was spooky. Felt like there could be a crash (like -10-15% S&P). Glad there wasn't.
* Last Friday was scary - the air pockets in rates, the dollar, etc. was spooky. Felt like there could be a crash (like -10-15% S&P). Glad there wasn't.
* The spanking taken by energy on Friday (WTI -6% breaking $80, -7% $XLE, -9% $OIH, -8% $XOP) was essentially the market throwing in the towel on the economy and saying "things will be bad"
* When towels are getting thrown in, fundamentals take a back seat to trading.
* When towels are getting thrown in, fundamentals take a back seat to trading.
* Sentiment $ are more powerful than fundamental $. Which is why oil has the potential to go down "more than you think" in a tape that is puking risk. $70 not unthinkable, even if not fundamentally justified. Cheap assets can get cheaper.
$panr $pthrf #panr @Josh_Young_1 @oilmutt @EnergyHobbs @contrarian8888 #eft #oott #Com
Some fact checks for Josh and the Josh Bros like Oil Mutt.
1) Josh refers to mud slinging when it was he who started this exchange by insinuating equivalence between the conduct of...1/
Some fact checks for Josh and the Josh Bros like Oil Mutt.
1) Josh refers to mud slinging when it was he who started this exchange by insinuating equivalence between the conduct of...1/
...@PantheonResour1 and the Bre-X scandal. Josh did not provide a single sentence of evidence to back up his outrageous and highly unethical tweet.
2) Josh appears to believe @oilmutt is some kind of O&G super-sleuth. He urges his Bros not to let Oil Mutt have...2/
$panr $pthrf
2) Josh appears to believe @oilmutt is some kind of O&G super-sleuth. He urges his Bros not to let Oil Mutt have...2/
$panr $pthrf
..."all the fun". Let's examine Investigator Oil Mutt's claims, shall we?
Allegation #1: Oil Mutt began baselessly alleging #panr hadn't reported to the market its Theta West-1 was to be P&A's at the end of the 21/22 winter season. He challenged @Gary02001438 and me to..3/
Allegation #1: Oil Mutt began baselessly alleging #panr hadn't reported to the market its Theta West-1 was to be P&A's at the end of the 21/22 winter season. He challenged @Gary02001438 and me to..3/
Probably President Biden should not talk about gasoline prices again. He just said something and we lost three refineries in 24 hours!
#Oil #OOTT #COM #EFT
#Oil #OOTT #COM #EFT
could you please post the link? thanks
Oil is down 25% over the last 3 months and economic growth is on the ropes, yet we are still bullish on energy stocks.
Here are the 4 reasons why š§µ
#COM #EFT #OOTT
Here are the 4 reasons why š§µ
#COM #EFT #OOTT
Oil inventories usually build in the first half of the year and draw in the second. That didn't happen and we are near 2007 storage levels and 20 days of supply vs 18 at the low point back then.
We all know what happened in 2008...
We all know what happened in 2008...
OPEC production looks tapped out.
From May-July OPEC missed quotas by a combined 1.26mb/d. The planned July production hike of ~400k b/d turned into a 1.2m b/d miss with August even worse at a 1.4mb/d miss
From May-July OPEC missed quotas by a combined 1.26mb/d. The planned July production hike of ~400k b/d turned into a 1.2m b/d miss with August even worse at a 1.4mb/d miss
BNS on Natural Gas Producers
"Commodity Price Volatility Is High, but Equity Valuations Remain Low"
-10 year strip from Apr:ā¬ļøWTI , ā¬ļøHH
-2023 and 2024 sensitivities continued
$AAV $ARX $BIR $CR $KEL $NVA $POU $PEY $SDE $TPZ $TOU $AR $CHK $CNX $EQT $NFG $RRC $SWN
#COM #EFT #OOTT
"Commodity Price Volatility Is High, but Equity Valuations Remain Low"
-10 year strip from Apr:ā¬ļøWTI , ā¬ļøHH
-2023 and 2024 sensitivities continued
$AAV $ARX $BIR $CR $KEL $NVA $POU $PEY $SDE $TPZ $TOU $AR $CHK $CNX $EQT $NFG $RRC $SWN
#COM #EFT #OOTT
Summary:
$PEY $AAV $TOU $CR best on Producing NAV, w/ $BIR $EQT $SWN @ higher price scenarios
$PEY $SDE $SWN $CR $CNX best valuation upside EV/DACF
Deepest value: CAD $PEY $CR US $SWN
Top picks: CAD $TOU $PEY $SDE US $SWN $EQT
$PEY $AAV $TOU $CR best on Producing NAV, w/ $BIR $EQT $SWN @ higher price scenarios
$PEY $SDE $SWN $CR $CNX best valuation upside EV/DACF
Deepest value: CAD $PEY $CR US $SWN
Top picks: CAD $TOU $PEY $SDE US $SWN $EQT
-2023 and 2024 sensitivities
š„Thread on the costs of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)! (simplified calculations)
1- In 3 years, between the start of 1979 & the end of 1981, 168 mb of crude oil were added to the SPR at an average cost of about $32/b. That is about $125/b in Today's money!
#Oil #OOTT #SPR
1- In 3 years, between the start of 1979 & the end of 1981, 168 mb of crude oil were added to the SPR at an average cost of about $32/b. That is about $125/b in Today's money!
#Oil #OOTT #SPR
2- The fixed cost incurred by the taxpayer to prepare the caverns was around $4 billion. That translates to about $6/b assuming 650 mb existed from day one in 1977 (of course that was not the case, but I am trying to use the low numbers). $6 in 1977 equals about $29.40/b today!
Sunday Musings:
Several weeks ago we wrote to our LPs that we believed the oil markets were transitioning from 40 years of having a firm ceiling and no floor towards having a firmer floor and a vastly diminished ceiling.
This week's Saudi comments support that view.
Several weeks ago we wrote to our LPs that we believed the oil markets were transitioning from 40 years of having a firm ceiling and no floor towards having a firmer floor and a vastly diminished ceiling.
This week's Saudi comments support that view.
Historically, OPEC increased production into economic downturns. The resulting downside volatility discouraged western investment.
Their willingness to reduce supply to make room for Iranian barrels indicates they no longer need to, as decarb/ESG sentiment achieves same goal.
Their willingness to reduce supply to make room for Iranian barrels indicates they no longer need to, as decarb/ESG sentiment achieves same goal.
If correct, energy equities current status as effectively short-duration options on crude prices with negative skew may well evolve into something more akin to longer-duration options with flat or positive skew (extended duration = realization we still need it for next 15+ years)
An OFS Thread:1/n The Canadian drilling sector is breaking out of its 5 year range. The industry is running more than 213 rigs. Q1 22 saw a similar number of rigs running. Looking forward the 5 year high in Q1 is 350 rigs. Will Q1 23 be more than 300 Rigs? Likely.
2/n How are we so confident? Let's drop by Prairie Sky. They lease land to hopeful operators. in Q1 and Q2 it reported ~100 new leases. Those are record leasing rates. It takes 9 months to work up locations, so suggests to a burgeoning well count in 2023.
3/n Between now and the end of June, Active rigs have increased significantly. You can see the main contractors have some 375 rigs registered. We could see very high utilization rates if trends persist.
Fly in the ointment: not all of these rigs can be crewed
Fly in the ointment: not all of these rigs can be crewed
A quick refresher on why investing in US natural gas looks like a home run right now.
#COM #OOTT #EFT
#COM #OOTT #EFT
The US produces about 100 Bcfe/d of gas.
Outside America, the world consumes 280 Bcfe/d for a total of 380Bcfe/d of global demand.
Outside America, the world consumes 280 Bcfe/d for a total of 380Bcfe/d of global demand.
Gas is much greener than coal or oil.
Gas gives off far fewer emissions than both coal and oil (see "EQT" bar on the left)
Gas gives off far fewer emissions than both coal and oil (see "EQT" bar on the left)
Owning energy stocks into a recession is usually a bad idea.
Here are 6 charts that changed my mind..
#COM #EFT #OOTT
Here are 6 charts that changed my mind..
#COM #EFT #OOTT
The world isn't spending nearly enough on drilling for oil & gas. 70-80% of cashflow is typical.
We are at 35%, way too little to meet demand
We are at 35%, way too little to meet demand
Spending isn't increasing that quickly looking forward either, even with mountains of free-cashflow to reinvest.
The increase in US rigs has basically stalled in July showing producers are still worried about the economy and not in a hurry to ramp up production.
The increase in US rigs has basically stalled in July showing producers are still worried about the economy and not in a hurry to ramp up production.
Consider this my mega thread coming out party š„³ #EFT. I donāt typically make long threads or comments, instead preferring to spend my time scanning for more data, info, guidance, and articles from from those that I consider much more knowledge than myself in the O&G space. 1/
Before we get started I want to make clear Im not attempting to claim any of the ideas put forth below as my own. It is intended to be more of a summary/combination of recent articles from some of the best minds Iāve been able to find on this platform. 2/
I will do my best to add these articles and tag those whose thoughts have heavily included my thinking here to the appropriate tweet in the thread. Please give these people a follow if you donāt already. Here we goā¦.. 3/
I don't have blind faith oil will stay strong, and I acknowlede the oil market is rightly considered as somewhat opaque. There are two factors giving me confidence:
1) Crack spreads (record highs)
2) VLCC rates (near record lows)
#OOTT #COM #EFT $XLE $XOP $OIH $CL_F
1) Crack spreads (record highs)
2) VLCC rates (near record lows)
#OOTT #COM #EFT $XLE $XOP $OIH $CL_F
So first on crack spreads. This is your sanity check on "is demand destruction occurring". The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude and the price of products like gasoline and diesel. At incredible, historic, world beating levels.
What does this imply?
What does this imply?
Basically, that refineries have zero incentive to slow down. They cannot meet consumer demand. So fuel margins are at record highs. As long as this persists, refiners, the main buyer of crude, have a historic incentive to not only buy, but to bring more capacity online. Anything.
The energy shellacking continued today, but looking across the market, the action is actually fairly consistent (more in the thread below).As/when the industry puts up sustained cash flows, this selloff will look way overdone - but who knows if its over yet!?!? #EFT #OOTT
Market action says recession coming, interest rates won't go up as much as you think, inflation will moderate. Examples:
1) bonds up, yields down
2) commodities softening - not just oil - wheat, copper, etc (why? expectations of demand softening)
1) bonds up, yields down
2) commodities softening - not just oil - wheat, copper, etc (why? expectations of demand softening)
3) Nasdaq outperforming (lower rate expectations means higher NPVs)...$ARKK names the best example with many up double digits today
4) Consumer sensitive names getting smoked (airlines, hotels, retail, etc)
4) Consumer sensitive names getting smoked (airlines, hotels, retail, etc)
Quick thread on White House address on gas tax holiday. Thanks for pulpit today @PowerLunch and Tyler Mathisen - so much more to say. Key point - "we're doing everything possible" is simply NOT the case. Much more is possible.
More below, #EFT #OOTT
More below, #EFT #OOTT
Recap of Biden statements:
1) Proposing Fed gas tax holiday - 18-24c/gal, 2) request states also waive (20-30c/gal),
3) Refine more oil
4) US production will be a record next year
5) OPEC+ adding supply
6) Gas stations need to pass along lower prices
7) Putin's fault = +$2/gal
1) Proposing Fed gas tax holiday - 18-24c/gal, 2) request states also waive (20-30c/gal),
3) Refine more oil
4) US production will be a record next year
5) OPEC+ adding supply
6) Gas stations need to pass along lower prices
7) Putin's fault = +$2/gal
Jon Gollub CS - Unfortunately, many of these policy prescriptions lower near-term prices but leave longer run inflationary pressures in place.While politically expedient, these efforts encourage additional spending.They also undermine decision making by obfuscating price signals.
A few thoughts #EFT #OOTT
Seems like old times...the bad old times. The yucky market finally caught up with oil and energy stocks. WTI went from "so good its almost bad" in the $120's to "still darn good but falling like a knife" in the $110's. XLE -20% since last Wednesday.
Seems like old times...the bad old times. The yucky market finally caught up with oil and energy stocks. WTI went from "so good its almost bad" in the $120's to "still darn good but falling like a knife" in the $110's. XLE -20% since last Wednesday.
Let's not forget natty. The cool new kid at the party wound up puking in the bushes - dropping from $9.30's to $6.90's (-26% for those scoring at home).
To what do we owe this nasty behavior? Well, risk off is the easiest and most obvious answer. Everything's ugly.
To what do we owe this nasty behavior? Well, risk off is the easiest and most obvious answer. Everything's ugly.
If the popular wisdom was "tech can't bottom until big tech cracks"...then maybe we say "the market can't bottom until the best performer - energy - gives some back". This week people sold winners (energy, oil, gas) and losers (lots of other sectors).
1-5 Now it is official: President Biden to visit #SaudiArabia on July 15 and 16, during his Middle East tour.
After meeting with the Saudi leadership, he will meet with the leaders of what some experts call āthe Arab NATOā: GCC leaders, Egypt, Jordan, (& Iraq). #OOTT #COM #EFT
After meeting with the Saudi leadership, he will meet with the leaders of what some experts call āthe Arab NATOā: GCC leaders, Egypt, Jordan, (& Iraq). #OOTT #COM #EFT
2-5 Oil is not among top issues given the importance of security issues in the region. My guess is that Saudis are more interested in highlighting their climate change plans & efforts while showing that they actually have been increasing oil production & will continue to do so
3-5 While mega commercial deals are expected, nuclear deals will attract media attention. Saudi Arabia, in its carbon reduction efforts, needs nuclear energy. It remains to be seen if Saudis will continue to invest in the US refining sector
"International Energy Agency warns against investing in oil & gas production" #EFT #OOTT @TwainsMustache @EnergyCynic
seekingalpha.com/news/3841822-iā¦
seekingalpha.com/news/3841822-iā¦
In a curious statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the head of the International Energy Agency said, "my worry is that some people may use Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an excuse for a large scale, new wave of fossil fuel investments." Noting that,
"one of the reasons that we have such high prices is the heatwave which is a result of climate change." An interesting statement, given NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index just measured it's lowest annual reading since 2014. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine,
I have been one-directional in raving energy industry looks attractive. #EFT #OOTT Tight supply/demand AND structural underpin of Energy Security with Russia situation.Price is the one datapoint that (is supposed to) reflect all variables going into the collective market thinking
I guess that is why chart people usually focus so heavily on price (and volume) - in a reasonably deep market like oil and gas, it is a dispassionate indicator of a jillion smart people with a jillion different objectives (trading, hedging, consuming, etc)
Sure, oil price is often wrong. The oil futures curve rarely accurately predicts big moves up or down. Which is what allows us fundamental folks to āhave a chanceā at forecasting whether oil is cheap or expensive. But i digress.
1/x This "feels" rt. This feels like an orderly sell-off, but will snowball a here b/c of margin req'ts & invstrs start pulling funds, forcing liquidazn. Anticipate daily moves 2 be a bit moar violent. Bounces likely to be faded as people add protection or exit #oil #EFT #OOTT
2/x 200 day MVA is sticky here, Nasdaq "wants" to go there, 10,700. Everyone looking at similar charts, another 10% to go would put Nas dwn ~40% YTD, '00 Internet bubble (QQQ still young, -65%) & '08 GFC, QQQ dwn ~45%
3/x rising inflation environment tho, so a bit different. More akin to early 70s right now, & charts look similar. No we're not TAs, but TA reps mrkt emotions & sell-offs start fundamentally, ends emotionally. Oil, inflationary assets, hard assets, E&Ps, mining cos. not spared
