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As the first anniversary of Russia's war against Ukraine approaches, I am eager to present a detailed thread 🧵exploring key geopolitical assessments and takeaways. Join me in this critical reflection on the war and its implications for Europe and the world. #Geopolitics 👇
Ukraine faces the difficult choice between war and complete subjugation. Each successful military counteroffensive improves the chance of regaining lost territories and achieving full territorial integrity and sovereignty, as recognized by the international community since 1991.
However, for Russia, the choices were limited to a short war that failed in the first phase, & a war of attrition, which is the current reality. To adapt to the new situation, Russia has resorted to mass mobilization of reservists & air bombing critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
🧵#NovemberGeopolitics
At time when #EU & #Transatlantic unity are key, @Bundeskanzler visit to Beijing — Moscow’s “no limits” friend — is bad for both. 🇩🇪is not only Europe’s biggest econ it’s also #G7 chair. A solo visit, (even a duo w/ @EmmanuelMacron), sends wrong signal 1/5
At time when #EU & #Transatlantic unity are key, @Bundeskanzler visit to Beijing — Moscow’s “no limits” friend — is bad for both. 🇩🇪is not only Europe’s biggest econ it’s also #G7 chair. A solo visit, (even a duo w/ @EmmanuelMacron), sends wrong signal 1/5
The fact that visit is happening a few short weeks after #XiJingping secured third mandate to lead China🇨🇳 under an almost single-man rule is also the wrong message. Some say pragmatism, I say short sigthedness & narrow self-interest. In fact, meeting at margins of #G20 2/5
in 🇮🇩 would be the right
format. This would be even more pragmatic because: 1) it would show force & unity at challenging moment for #EU-#China relations, with a meeting w/ Xi bringing other #EU countries present 🇫🇷🇮🇹(🇪🇸🇳🇱 are invited) + 🇪🇺 @eucopresident & @vonderleyen. 3/5
format. This would be even more pragmatic because: 1) it would show force & unity at challenging moment for #EU-#China relations, with a meeting w/ Xi bringing other #EU countries present 🇫🇷🇮🇹(🇪🇸🇳🇱 are invited) + 🇪🇺 @eucopresident & @vonderleyen. 3/5
US National Security Strategy is out. "PRC presents America’s most consequential geopolitical
challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are
significant global dimensions to this challenge." #strategy whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
challenge. Although the Indo-Pacific is where its outcomes will be most acutely shaped, there are
significant global dimensions to this challenge." #strategy whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
"Russia poses an immediate and ongoing threat to
the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC." p. 11
the regional security order in Europe and it is a source of disruption and instability globally but it lacks the across the spectrum capabilities of the PRC." p. 11
"The PRC and Russia are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct. We will prioritize maintaining an enduring competitive edge over the PRC while constraining a still profoundly dangerous Russia." p. 23 #DragonBear
Against the backdrop of China-Russia meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin, what are the real motives and geopolitical interests of the two leaders and their countries to enter a modus vivendi of systemic coordination?
My thread 🧵on the #DragonBear from #realpolitik perspective.
My thread 🧵on the #DragonBear from #realpolitik perspective.
First and foremost, it's about a matter of survival in a highly volatile global system. Russia's political, economic, and financial survival will depend on China amid the country's worst isolation by the West and following the military failures on the battle fields in Ukraine.
The international order is in a transitional phase in which two centres of power are emerging—the US and China. In this context, China needs to avoid any scenarios of domestic instability following the pandemic and at the same time face global system bifurcation.
A brave rebuff to the #DragonBear here
"Russia has earned more than enough from President Vladimir Putin’s energy war on the West to cover the cost of the Ukraine invasion, researchers said yesterday."
#DragonBear but also RUS-India ties are very strong
#DragonBear but also RUS-India ties are very strong
In his opening remarks Xi urged Russia to “assume the role of great powers and play a guiding role to inject stability and positive energy into a world rocked by social turmoil”. #DragonBear
smh.com.au/world/asia/put…
smh.com.au/world/asia/put…
I spoke with @vtchakarova re: Australia's enduring strategic interests & Allies, AUKUS/Quad/France/India, Seapower, China & Taiwan, and the realities & obvious consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Enjoy. #DragonBear #Realpolitik ⬇️
In my discussion with @vtchakarova , we discussed the Russian invasion of Ukraine - you can find my long thread, begun well before Russia invaded Ukraine, here & scroll up.
Towards the end, @vtchakarova & I discussed Russia achieved its Novorossiya project & making most of the Black Sea a 'Russian Lake'. If so, Turkey either does or will face a decision point about whether a deal with Russia over the Black Sea's resources more important than NATO.
Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan.
Thread🧵👇
Thread🧵👇
There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won't stop the war. On the opposite.
Slowly dawning on even the most recalitrant minds that the weak and malleable Russia of the 1990s was a very strange exception & instead the Russian threat & resulting security problems will be one that our ancestors would have recognised .... but with the #DragonBear twist
I wrote this Australian #Realpolitik perspective (28 Feb 2022) on the West's Russia problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact now looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific.
I wrote this last week on how we should approach "The Russian Problem", which applies similarly to China and Iran. All comments and criticisms are welcome. #Realpolitik #DragonBear
strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-ru…
strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-ru…
No estamos en el escenario que nos acostumbró la guerra fría, no es blanco y negro, sin embargo; hay una bifurcación en curso, el #DragonBear vs OTAN. A partir de allí habrá no alineados pero de una forma diferente y más compleja, que en la 1ra #ColdWar, de intereses sobrepuestos
La realidad multipolar y de relaciones, dónde hay un evidente choque de civilizaciones y la irrupción de una nueva geometría ideológica (globalismo) impulsada desde occidente, y enfrentada a otros regímenes autoritarios, y también totalitarios; nos obliga a cambiar los paradigmas
No se puede analizar la situación actual en base a los mismos paradigmas geopoliticos del siglo xx. Eso no significa dejar atrás la lectura analítica de aquellos días sino, tomarla como base para repensar y tratar de proyectar, es decir; saber hacia dónde vamos y que enfrentar.
Another @RadioFreeTom style “bad feeling” thread and why we need to both deal with a breaking crisis but also think and plan long term. 1/
First bad feeling: scorched earth. For years at track 2 events, Russian interlocutors would complain that the West was inviting Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic community but expecting Russian energy transit fees to continue to be supporting the Ukrainian treasury. If the 2/
statement from @BrunoLeMaire posted earlier is the endgame for Russia, I worry Russia gives the West Putin’s version of the Pottery Barn rule for Ukraine: we broke it, you own it. 3/
I am grateful to the @smh for publishing my Australian #Realpolitik perspective on the Russian problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific.
The @smh has published a rejoinder to my piece above. Read it and make up your own mind. I think it is an error to focus on 90s matters when Russia was on its knees - also doubt Navalny is any threat to the regime. Putin’s replacement may be more competent but will be like minded
This by @latikambourke with @simonmontefiore reinforces what I said above - that Putin is basically making good the traditional Tsarist vision of Russia. Again - the 1990s Russia that seems to have formed so many minds here was an historic aberration.
smh.com.au/world/europe/h…
smh.com.au/world/europe/h…
Vladimir Putin ~ ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ (July 12, 2021)
"It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families"
#DragonBear #Russia #Ukraine
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families"
#DragonBear #Russia #Ukraine
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Slowly dawning on even the most recalitrant minds that the weak and malleable Russia of the 1990s was a very strange exception & instead the Russian threat & resulting security problems will be one that our ancestors would have recognised .... but with the #DragonBear twist
I wrote this Australian #Realpolitik perspective (28 Feb 2022) on the West's Russia problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact now looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific.
If you listen to what the visiting German Admiral Schonbach says in India here - it is rough & off the cuff - it is basically the TL:DR/‘quiet part out loud’ of most serious Western analysts re Russia & China & the grave danger of #DragonBear for Eurasia
Noticing media commentary upset that the Admiral says he is a 'radical Roman Catholic' - I suspect as English is his second language, he meant 'rooted' (in German same thing) as he was discussing Putin as a non believer. If this upsets you, call Captain von Trapp to the bridge
To my knowledge, Putin has said his mother was religious and that he was baptised Orthodox. On any view, whatever, the Russians in Syria did manage to do more to protect the rights of Christian minorities than the Americans - arming "moderate Al Qaeda" etc - ever did, frankly.
Ongoing thread here re Russia, Ukraine, prospects for War & its consequences, and a certain #Realpolitik about the 'Russian way of war' .... noting you can find my #DragonBear comments elsewhere.
Firstly, good maps here from the NYT of current Russian military dispositions ivo Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia, etal. Russia recovering the Crimea in 2014 enormously useful in all directions (as well as bases for logistics & Intelligence collection)
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Secondly, I did a whole thread here before Christmas on how the Russians approach war and statecraft (TL:DR there is a long historical method and very little that is surprising to anyone who reads & has basic common sense) ⬇️
Can't go a day without someone saying Russia going to invade Ukraine and nothing the Biden admin can do to stop it.
And the media is happy to paint the situation as an evil attempt on Putins part to take over a sovereign nation despite US's own record.
And the media is happy to paint the situation as an evil attempt on Putins part to take over a sovereign nation despite US's own record.
Whatever you think of Putin, I hope we can all agree he is not a stupid person. Like him or hate him, he has been an extremely effective leader. And has probably played the hand he was dealt better than any of his peers. And even the f'ing birds respect him.
Part of this theory for the imminent invasion of Ukraine is bc Biden is weak and Europe is in an inflationary energy crisis. And with Europe dependent on Russian Natural gas to keep warm, the timing is good for Russia.
No significant player has any big interest in a prolonged crisis in Kazakhstan right now. Russia will keep „peacekeepers“ on the ground but will make sure to complete the CSTO operation asap. China is getting ready for the Olympics. Turkey tackles a serious currently crisis. ⤵️
US is preparing for the talks with Moscow regarding Ukraine & has no military footprint in Central Asia following the exit from Afghanistan. The EU is irrelevant geopolitical player in Central Asia despite major geoeconomic interests in Kazakhstan. The crisis will be over soon.⤵️
Depending on Russia‘s military performance to stabilize the situation on the ground without antagonizing civilians, Moscow will upgrade its regional position against both the US & China amid Bifurcation of the Global System and an escalation in Eastern Europe. See my pinned 🧵 ⤵️
The danger of a military attack by Russia in the direct European neighborhood is permanent and the most recent escalation caused by its drastic troops mobilization will send a strong signal once again that a military attack could be imminent at any time. What’s Russia’s plan? /1
Russia‘s Putin is preparing for the „long game“, that is the systemic rivalry between USA and China. He seeks to upgrade his regional positioning by testing the American reaction (he knows that there won’t be a military involvement by US in Ukraine due to mid-term elections). /2
And at the same time, by showing muscle, Putin makes Russia an indispensable player, without which neither of the two rivals - USA & China, could win the future competition against each other. How many countries in the world could mobilize so many troops in such a short time? /3
Re Taiwan/China: I have been asked what is my 'position' on China & Taiwan. Herewith a brief thread on the matter, as an Australian, but, also, as, hopefully, a sober realist of military affairs. This is just my opinion & am happy to be wrong (well, not to a nuclear escalation).
As I have said before, I am a small "h" hawk on China. I think the Chinese like the Russians (aka the #DragonBear) require vigilant watching. This is not because they are repressive or evil per se but because they will, geopolitically, tend to dominate the Eurasian landmass
In the case of the PRC, China faces now - and will into the future - the problem that it is a rising power that cannot feed itself & power itself in its own currency. Great powers are hungry for energy & food. The PRC & esp the CCP face the daily purchase of food & energy in USD
You know this is indeed a clusterfuck when even the Czechs start to give you a piece of their mind.
Make no doubt about it ... this is nothing less than proverbially seeing DC's face being dragged thru the mud in many capitols across the world!
#Biden #Afghanistan #NATO
Make no doubt about it ... this is nothing less than proverbially seeing DC's face being dragged thru the mud in many capitols across the world!
#Biden #Afghanistan #NATO
I mean this isn't a one off.
This message is on repeat.
The Yanks literally did not honor their own cheques and they were meager cheques to begin with.
When this lot tells you to man up that means you really have lost your marbles and balls!!
#BidenDisaster #BidenFailure
This message is on repeat.
The Yanks literally did not honor their own cheques and they were meager cheques to begin with.
When this lot tells you to man up that means you really have lost your marbles and balls!!
#BidenDisaster #BidenFailure
Also when you start to see images like this from hardcore establishment media emanating from the Brits it means not only have you lost the fringes but now the entire damn center has collapsed too.
Was anyone awake? Was anyone at the wheel?
#BidenIsALaughingstock #Afganisthan
Was anyone awake? Was anyone at the wheel?
#BidenIsALaughingstock #Afganisthan
It is 0615 on Friday morning in Kabul and temperatures will reach a more pleasant 26°C (every degree counts if you are wearing armour & a helmet etc). Friday prayers today - the first after the capitulation of Kabul - may throw an additional spanner in the evacuation works
The British 16 Air Assault Brigade, with 2PARA in the lead, are reportedly undertaking recovery operations within Kabul for British subjects .... service in the finest traditions of the Maroon beret here.
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/1…
telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/1…
My thread here agrees entirely with Lieutenant Commander Crenshaw - indeed this was all obvious a week ago
It is not anti-Putin as anti-Russia as a traditional society. It is also why elements of the Right will admit in private that Russia, like the Visegrad 4, has an admirable refusal to salute whatever this week's flag is .....
Traditional Russia, generally, and Putin esp, is a hated target for liberalism - as it was in Tsarist times. Russian welcomes this hatred & will use it. See this magnifcent piece by @20committee from 2014 which noted & predicted all this
20committee.com/2014/04/07/put…
20committee.com/2014/04/07/put…
The strangest part of 2021 is western liberals who were never too sure about confronting the USSR are now certain that Putin's Russia is a mortal threat. The liberal tendency to the hyperbolic comes from religious outrage - that the Russians refuse to kneel before 'progress'
I started this #Coronavirus thread in Jan 2020 after this stark experience of arriving in Tokyo & being politely shuffled along by Japanese customs & immigration. Activities of the Japanese & Russians bordering China were always a good signal of what was really happening....👇
The Japanese never believe (esp post SARS) anything that the PRC says esp re public health & viruses. Japan (not unlike Australia) is islands and people who lack immunities to various viruses esp from China. This was a matter of life and death for the Japanese.
Meanwhile, Russia (in a #DragonBear pact with China) also did not believe the PRC's stories. The Russians have a very good idea of what happenes in China esp in its security apparatus. The Russians knew enough to close what is for them a valuable border
An unexpected manifestation of the pandemic is the bifurcation of the global order in a way unseen since the Cold War. It begs the question—is the world witnessing the beginning of a new bipolar era of global competition? A thread 🧵#GlobalSystem #geopolitics #RaisinaFiles
In the presence of a hegemon, there is always a process of polarisation that leads to the creation of a secondary system organised around a pole consisting of a single competitor or a group of rivals that seek to undermine the incumbent’s global power supremacy.
A global reserve currency is not possible nowadays without global power projection capabilities
that enable the US to control the interconnected flows of goods, capital, services, data, & protect trade & transport routes from disruptions that might result in major supply shocks.
that enable the US to control the interconnected flows of goods, capital, services, data, & protect trade & transport routes from disruptions that might result in major supply shocks.
Saudis, Egyptians & French take note ivo Suez => Russia will be allowed to transfer “any kind of military equipment or munition, equipment or material” through Sudanese ports that are required for the center, the agreement read.
#DragonBear
defensenews.com/global/mideast…
#DragonBear
defensenews.com/global/mideast…
The Chinese Communist Party has placed its own operatives inside the Australian, British, American, German, Indian & other Allied diplomatic missions in Shanghai #DragonBear
“We must deepen China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperation ... in various areas and at different levels ... so as to build a Sino-Russian pillar for world peace and security and global strategic stability”
#DragonBear
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
#DragonBear
scmp.com/news/china/dip…
