Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CovidZero
Most recents (24)
A brief thread on being a media MD & the latest COVID gaslighting. During the pandemic I’ve done my share of interviews, I’ve turned down more requests than I’ve taken choosing instead to steer reporters to those whose training and expertise are more COVID suited than mine /1
PreCOVID bet I’d done between 700-1,000 interviews on topics related to nutrition, obesity, weight loss, & public policy therein. I don’t kid myself about kept getting invited back. It was consequent to my ability to speak in soundbites more than to my expertise or knowledge /2
To that point I can tell you, especially with experience, one learns what resonates and how to powerfully make your points. I can also tell you that while occasionally things may come out differently than you hope, on topics which you’re hugely familiar and seasoned, /3
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Global Macro Review 🧵
1/14
Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so let’s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.
(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
Global Macro Review 🧵
1/14
Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so let’s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.
(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
2/14
The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.
Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.
A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die.
The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.
Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.
A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die.
3/14
After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.
Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%.
After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.
Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%.
As 2022 comes to a close, I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you of the high(and low)lights of the COVID-19 response in Ontario over the past year, as well as the goings-on of relevant personalities.
Join me for a long trip down recent-memory lane...🧵
Join me for a long trip down recent-memory lane...🧵
January 5
After being told for months that vaccine passports were the key to keeping businesses open, Ontario once again forces gyms, restaurants, bars and large events to close down, proving that vaxports failed. Schools are closed for two additional weeks over the Christmas.
After being told for months that vaccine passports were the key to keeping businesses open, Ontario once again forces gyms, restaurants, bars and large events to close down, proving that vaxports failed. Schools are closed for two additional weeks over the Christmas.
January 28
The Convoy arrives in Ottawa, becoming one of the largest grassroots protests in CDN history. It spurred reform of COVID-19 restrictions across the provinces.
Justin Trudeau opted to deploy the emergencies act to end the protest without ever speaking with protesters.
The Convoy arrives in Ottawa, becoming one of the largest grassroots protests in CDN history. It spurred reform of COVID-19 restrictions across the provinces.
Justin Trudeau opted to deploy the emergencies act to end the protest without ever speaking with protesters.
#China's exports and imports contracted in November as the #COVID19 outbreak disrupted production and weakened demand at home. The value of exports fell to a low of $296 billion, the lowest since April when the lockdown of Shanghai closed factories. 🧵
The decline in imports also widened to 10.6%, leaving a narrower trade surplus of $69.8 billion last month.
China's government is now looking to relax the #COVIDZero policy to reduce its impact on the economy and add more stimulus.
Wild WeChat conversation among a group of #Shanghai friends within the last 48 hours. They went for dinner, then to a karaoke bar. Got a private room with a vintage mic stand to belt out tunes. Snacked on popcorn and seaweed. So happy to see them go out, UNTIL #COVIDZero
Next morning friend #1 forwarded a message from another friend: "Dear friends who dined with me 2 days ago, I've received a call from the track and trace team. They said a #COVID case passed through the restaurant. I'm not sure if we overlapped with that person." #COVIDZero
This is NOT the same restaurant as my group of friends went to last night BUT IF friend #1 is deemed as a close contact, then the rest of our friends at the karaoke bar yesterday would be considered secondary contacts. That means quarantine for all. #COVIDZero
1/We seem to be reaching the stage of the Covid debacle where all of the authoritarians are trying to memory hole all the awful things that they did. We need to make sure that we never forget. Remember when they arrested people for sitting in a park or going to the beach?
2/Remember when they salted/sanded ice rinks to prevent people from using them?torontosun.com/news/local-new…
3/Remember when they banned low-risk kids from school for months at a time and taped off play structures at parks?
Many have asked us to step in to clarify what's really going on across #China's faltering economy.
As @michaelxpettis notes, the critical issue is "stimulus" vs loan demand.
But @ChinaBeigeBook data over past 6+ mos show there is much more here than meets the eye.
*THREAD*
1/
As @michaelxpettis notes, the critical issue is "stimulus" vs loan demand.
But @ChinaBeigeBook data over past 6+ mos show there is much more here than meets the eye.
*THREAD*
1/
For virtually all of 2021, credit was extremely tight, w/uptake at corporates at, or hovering near, all-time @ChinaBeigeBook lows. Combination of constricted [govt dictated] supply & putrid levels of loan demand.
2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Very end of '21 we saw a curious change in the data.
While borrowing remained tight & firms STILL not applying for new loans, our pent-up loan demand gauges started to rise. 4 straight months into April, loan demand rose...meaningfully.
3/
While borrowing remained tight & firms STILL not applying for new loans, our pent-up loan demand gauges started to rise. 4 straight months into April, loan demand rose...meaningfully.
3/
Here is a direct comparison of the deaths (undercount) caused by COVID-19 from the US and any nation that engaged in significant #covidzero policies past the first phase of the pandemic (Canada only there on the back of 4 atlantic provinces that held until end of 2021)
/1
/1
Using cumulative excess mortality, we can see that zero covid strategies were associated with less excess death overall. Any discussions of "but they killed more due to X" are accounted for in this analysis. Approximations of recent for some added by me and rough calculations.
/2
/2
Policy matters and American politicians and leaders failed the people they were sworn to protect.
Ohhhh facciamo un #decalogodiAle che così ci si sfoga per le boiate sentite ultimamente.
Pronti? Partiamo @errabonda20 ovviamente sei taggata.
1-Sotto la dittatura mio nonno ha vissuto bene...ok...e io sono Naomi Campbell.
2-Al netto del chi vuole la guerra è scemo o vende armi⬇️
Pronti? Partiamo @errabonda20 ovviamente sei taggata.
1-Sotto la dittatura mio nonno ha vissuto bene...ok...e io sono Naomi Campbell.
2-Al netto del chi vuole la guerra è scemo o vende armi⬇️
È inutile fare tante parole: uno è un aggressore l'altro è l'aggredito. Se non riconoscete questo beh allora facciamo che me piazzo a casa vostra abusivamente e dico che il salotto e il bagno sono roba mia e vediamo che succede.
3-Santa Maria Stuarda dei virologia tutti se ⬇️
3-Santa Maria Stuarda dei virologia tutti se ⬇️
Citate un Twitt che parla di vaccini e sottolineate la data precisa e fate gli splendidi parlando di incongruenza dimostrate solo che siete così ignoranti che se passate vicino ad un libro di immunologia si suicida per autocombustione
4- ripetete con me la pandemia non è finita⬇️
4- ripetete con me la pandemia non è finita⬇️
1/🧵Important Thread
For those working in unsafe conditions, this thread highlights which sections of the Occupational Health & Safety (OHS) Act may apply to your situation. You can highlight them in an unsafe work claim. It’s BC specific but may apply elsewhere. #bced #bcpoli
For those working in unsafe conditions, this thread highlights which sections of the Occupational Health & Safety (OHS) Act may apply to your situation. You can highlight them in an unsafe work claim. It’s BC specific but may apply elsewhere. #bced #bcpoli
2/ BCCDC creates guidance for employers, and employers can choose which aspects of the guidance they want to use in their safety plan.
Guidance is not law, it’s a suggestion.
The OHS Act is law and it TRUMPS any BC CDC guidance. Important distinction.
#bced #bcpoli #cdnpoli
Guidance is not law, it’s a suggestion.
The OHS Act is law and it TRUMPS any BC CDC guidance. Important distinction.
#bced #bcpoli #cdnpoli
3/ The PHO must also follow the principles in the OHS Act when creating orders, as must @WorkSafeBC when ruling on unsafe work claims.
Act clearly states that ALL work must be carried out without undue risk of occupational disease to ANY person. OHS Act prevails. #bced #bcpoli
Act clearly states that ALL work must be carried out without undue risk of occupational disease to ANY person. OHS Act prevails. #bced #bcpoli
Ultimate Freedom Day is forcing the most vulnerable into impossible situations.
How can we #StaySafe?
No testing. No isolating.
How can we judge our risks?
No ONS data, no government data.
How can we even access healthcare?
No masks.
1/
news.sky.com/story/covid-se…
How can we #StaySafe?
No testing. No isolating.
How can we judge our risks?
No ONS data, no government data.
How can we even access healthcare?
No masks.
1/
news.sky.com/story/covid-se…
With no masks and no isolating how can forced return to F2F work be viable in these circumstances?
We are choosing between #LivesAndLivelihoods
How can we send our children to school safely?
We are choosing between #educationANDlives
2/
We are choosing between #LivesAndLivelihoods
How can we send our children to school safely?
We are choosing between #educationANDlives
2/
Why is the answer ONLY more vaccines?
Severely immunosuppressed may not have made a response to 4.
Where is the real world evidence this will make a difference?
No other country is offering 5 doses.
What about the other CV / CEV?
Vaccines waning.
3/
independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Severely immunosuppressed may not have made a response to 4.
Where is the real world evidence this will make a difference?
No other country is offering 5 doses.
What about the other CV / CEV?
Vaccines waning.
3/
independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
If Canada had chosen #COVIDzero instead of 'live with it' and a 'vaccine-only' strategy, none of this would be happening.
It's the failure of PHOs causing all of this. @CDCofBC
Countries choosing elimination, enjoy more freedoms, less restrictions & better economic outcomes.
It's the failure of PHOs causing all of this. @CDCofBC
Countries choosing elimination, enjoy more freedoms, less restrictions & better economic outcomes.
The forced vaccination scheme PHOs chose for us is failing to protect us and it's causing a societal divide, where no divide was there before, breaking up families, marriages, livelihoods.
As our healthcare systems crash around us.
As our healthcare systems crash around us.
In the history of humanity, there has never been a benefit to segregating a portion of society.
The opposite happens. People rebel, and we're seeing some in this country rebel against this forced vaccination scheme. I don't support their process but I do oppose vaccine cards
The opposite happens. People rebel, and we're seeing some in this country rebel against this forced vaccination scheme. I don't support their process but I do oppose vaccine cards
Is @JoeBiden the next Herbert Hoover?
Makes you think. 🤔
Especially because the @WhiteHouse & @POTUS could scale hygienic infrastructure federally, incentivize it at states, kill Covid, and create a booming post-WWII-level economy.
A true #CovidZero effort would unleash ENORMOUS economic activity, if done correctly, like so:
A true #CovidZero effort would unleash ENORMOUS economic activity, if done correctly, like so:
I have received messages, texts, and reply-tweets regarding my stance on COVID management in ON (and elsewhere). As a strong early proponent of a #COVIDzero approach for a variety of reasons which, I believe, will show merit historically, I have never minimized COVID. However ...
1. I continue to have uncertainty regarding the severity of Omicron. I believe we will establish considerably more certainty in days ahead. Certainly, some evidence is emerging of a lesser severity—both mechanistically & epidemiologically—but I remain uncertain and thus cautious.
2. I don't accept the experience of the UK, Denmark, or anywhere else right now because they are at roughly the same time period in Omicron as we are—very early. The reasons why we cannot generalize from Gauteng are well documented, including in my weekly newsletter from Dec. 18.
1x Per "Survivors of severe COVID-19—especially those younger than 65 years—may be at more than twice the risk of dying within the next year than those who were never infected"... And those deaths I doubt are counted as "COVID".
2x This is one of a number of reasons why we are seeing overall deaths increasing above baseline + documented COVID deaths in countries hard hit by COVID...
3x And why NZ #COVIDZero strategy has been such an amazing success. Not only did they prevent a ton of direct deaths, but they also prevented a great deal of poorly measured disability followed by subsequent deaths.
I'm starting to wonder if, from the time of the first March 2020 emergency lockdown, that early success - everyone in #BC uniting behind the goal of slowing viral transmission - actually terrified provincial leaders.
Because they have certainly done their damnedest to divide us - in the most callous ways - ever since.
Having slowed transmission to such low levels by June 2020, imagine if #BC had adopted #COVIDZero protocols. Seeing that we could save lives, keep ppl healthy long before vaccines became available, feeling good about this, imagine if we had stayed united -
(1/13) Important thread:
The appointment of acting MOH Dr. @strauss_matt is indicative of the Local Region's rebuke of @PublicHealthON. The Local Board was well aware of Strauss' views. His appointment was a message against the use of deadly lockdowns. Cont' #onpoli #cdnpoli
The appointment of acting MOH Dr. @strauss_matt is indicative of the Local Region's rebuke of @PublicHealthON. The Local Board was well aware of Strauss' views. His appointment was a message against the use of deadly lockdowns. Cont' #onpoli #cdnpoli
(2/13) Dr. @strauss_matt is uniquely qualified. He's an ICU physician and an Assistant Professor at Queen's Medical School.
His only "sin" was a professional disagreement over the efficacy and use of lockdowns, given the harm and deaths they cause. Cont' #onpoli
His only "sin" was a professional disagreement over the efficacy and use of lockdowns, given the harm and deaths they cause. Cont' #onpoli
I think much of the incoherence & backflips in #COVID19 response, esp in rich countries, came about b/c ppl don't understand who ICU teams are & what they do
I'm an intensive care specialist who did an MBA to try & understand this better myself, here goes at an explanation: 🧵⬇️
I'm an intensive care specialist who did an MBA to try & understand this better myself, here goes at an explanation: 🧵⬇️
Firstly, it's TOTALLY MEANINGLESS to talk about death or mortality rates in a pandemic without talking about ICU teams
If you are in a rich country with a functioning health system there is ALWAYS an ICU team standing between you & a potentially avoidable premature death
If you are in a rich country with a functioning health system there is ALWAYS an ICU team standing between you & a potentially avoidable premature death
We're NOT used to thinking like this b/c epidemiologists & ID normally think either about outbreaks of deadly diseases in places w/out ICU teams Ebola in Africa) OR non deadly diseases in other places where ICU is irrelevant - gonorrhoea is embarrassing, not life threatening
See a lot of despair this morning after CDC announcement yesterday re: high viral loads with delta so transmission risk from vax'd & agree that this virus gives us so many twists & turns and so disappointing. But wonder if this helps about the mysteries
nytimes.com/2021/07/30/bri…
nytimes.com/2021/07/30/bri…
Or changing one's expectations with delta away from #covidzero but seeing that we have made much progress in our fight against this terrible virus; defanging the virus with the vaccines so that in areas of high vax, hospitalizations & cases more uncoupled
politico.com/news/magazine/…
politico.com/news/magazine/…
Please read @ashishkjha analysis of slides which reminds us of high vax effectiveness against disease & please read this- antibodies take bit of time to make from memory B cells but they do kick in, bring down transmission. T cells prevent severe diseases
A thread on our case @BurnetInstitute for why Sydney should move to Stage 4 restrictions without delay 1/18
First, as the Premier says, the only option for NSW (and all of Australia) is to get back to #COVIDZero while we get the country vaccinated. 2/18
Measures in place are keeping things in check. Tens of thousands of cases have been averted; much death & suffering prevented bc of the actions of NSW gov & people. 3/18 infogram.com/1plrmxlq5w1k19…
Vaxxed to the max! Michael Snow’s “The Audience” (1989) cheers for it all. 💉🙏🏼 All Mod(erna) cons.
All praise to @TOPublicHealth - the convention centre operation is huge and an efficient machine. In & out. And friendly. Airport security could take notes!
Love that the plaque below The Audience (Part One - there is another on the other side of SkyDome) has a guide to each character.
Most have invoked Orwell when raging against draconian lockdowns & mask mandates.
It is easy to see the parallels:
Militaristic enforcement to ensure compliance, censorship, Newspeek, etc.
However, I think that we also need to consider Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World".
1/...
It is easy to see the parallels:
Militaristic enforcement to ensure compliance, censorship, Newspeek, etc.
However, I think that we also need to consider Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World".
1/...
Brave New World was published 17 prior to "1984" - yet has many parallels to our current culture - and to our government's overzealous, oppressive & unscientific response to CV-19.
2/...
2/...
Beyond Huxley's brilliant portrayal of a dystopian future obsessed with sexual gratification, mindless pop-culture entertainment, & technological advancement...
3/...
3/...
Really good thread about the #Delta variant (#B1617) which has become the dominant variant in the UK.👇
There are some informative short videos as well for people like myself who are not science experts, but like to have a base level of understanding.
#COVID19 #ableg #abhealth
There are some informative short videos as well for people like myself who are not science experts, but like to have a base level of understanding.
#COVID19 #ableg #abhealth
How is #Alberta handling the #DeltaVariant?
“The Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary is dealing with several COVID-19 outbreaks, including 20 cases of the rapidly spreading delta variant, or B.1.617.2, in two units.”
#abhealth #covid19ab #ableg
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
“The Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary is dealing with several COVID-19 outbreaks, including 20 cases of the rapidly spreading delta variant, or B.1.617.2, in two units.”
#abhealth #covid19ab #ableg
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
A more infectious, more aggressive new strain taking hold in Alberta is a concern.
“but @calgarystampede will go ahead with #stampede2021🦠” (come hell or high fever.)
globalnews.ca/news/7939152/c…
“but @calgarystampede will go ahead with #stampede2021🦠” (come hell or high fever.)
globalnews.ca/news/7939152/c…
1/As we close a 2nd abysmal school year, this comprehensive report explores challenges in ON schools.
Fundamentally, in high-epi context, more introductions into school
= increased risk of spread in school and into community without additional measures
thestar.com/news/investiga…
Fundamentally, in high-epi context, more introductions into school
= increased risk of spread in school and into community without additional measures
thestar.com/news/investiga…
2/Testing + symptom screening act as red light
= prevent introductions
BUT an individual in school during their infectious period will still lead to cohort dismissal
👆🏾 why #COVIDZero in community + health/safety measures in school needed for stable in-person instruction
= prevent introductions
BUT an individual in school during their infectious period will still lead to cohort dismissal
👆🏾 why #COVIDZero in community + health/safety measures in school needed for stable in-person instruction
3/QC kept schools open + shut down gatherings elsewhere for months; still saw cohort dismissals in high-epi settings ~GTA
Screening is a vertical strategy that seeks out 1 specific pestilence. It's hard to find cases that cannot afford to be found.
BUT horizontal measures, like
Screening is a vertical strategy that seeks out 1 specific pestilence. It's hard to find cases that cannot afford to be found.
BUT horizontal measures, like
