Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ANDSF
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Today, the #Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an evaluation report of its contribution to the Resolute Support mission in #Afghanistan that *pulls no punches.*
I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n
I'll string together its primary findings in this THREAD. 1/n
(You can find the full report and an executive summary here: english.iob-evaluatie.nl/results/public…) 2/N
Before the findings, a quick comment: the Dutch MFA produced this report b/c "Dutch contributions to missions under Article 100 of the Dutch Constitution are subject to an obligation to evaluate the deployment after it's been completed"
Wish the US had a similar requirement. 3/n
Wish the US had a similar requirement. 3/n
ICYMI: Intelligence shows "The relationship between the #Taliban & #alQaida remains close, w/the latter [alQaida] celebrating the former’s success & renewing its pledge of allegiance" per report from @UN Sanctions Monitoring Team released Friday
Intelligence from @UN members "suggest that #alQaida has a safe haven under the #Taliban & increased freedom of action" per report "[AQ leader] Ayman al-Zawahiri has issued more frequent recorded messages since August, & there is now proof of life for him as recently as Feb 2022"
#alQaida-#Taliban relationship "underscored by the presence, both in #Afghanistan & the region, of alQaida core leadership & affiliated groups, such as alQaida in the Indian Subcontinent (#AQIS)" per @UN report
Yesterday @SIGARHQ posted an interim version of its report titled "Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: An Assessment of the Factors That Led to Its Demise"
In this thread, I'll summarize the report's main findings & offer some thoughts. 1/n
In this thread, I'll summarize the report's main findings & offer some thoughts. 1/n
NEW: US @DeptofDefense confirms an estimated $7.12 billion worth of military equipment provided to the Afghan security forces prior to their collapse "remains in Afghanistan in varying states of repair"
Total of $18.6 billion had been provided to Afghan forces from 2005-2021
Total of $18.6 billion had been provided to Afghan forces from 2005-2021
"It is important to remember that the $7.12 billion figure cited in the Department’s recent report to Congress corresponds to ANDSF equipment & not US military equipment used by our forces" per @DeptofDefense spox Army Major Rob Lodewick in statement
"Nearly all equipment used by US military forces in #Afghanistan was either retrograded or destroyed prior to our withdrawal" per @DeptofDefense's Maj. Lodewick in statement
NEW: Latest @SIGARHQ report finds overall violence in #Afghanistan is down since US forces left BUT...
"significant violence persists, including mass-casualty attacks by the #IslamicState-#Khorasan (#ISIS-K); civilian disturbances from abusive Taliban forces and others"
"significant violence persists, including mass-casualty attacks by the #IslamicState-#Khorasan (#ISIS-K); civilian disturbances from abusive Taliban forces and others"
I’ve seen lots of discussion lately about #Taliban-captured weapons in #Afghanistan, much of which is ill-informed. So, I’m going to discuss five myths about this topic in this THREAD. 1/n
(Note: The format for this was inspired by this excellent “five myths about the #Taliban” article by @a_a_jackson that you should also read) 2/n
washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-m…
washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-m…
1. Concerning signals coming from #IS in #Afghanistan.
After a months-long period of resurgence, its activities have fallen off a cliff—and this is not in response to any known counter-#ISKP operation.
After a months-long period of resurgence, its activities have fallen off a cliff—and this is not in response to any known counter-#ISKP operation.
2. In June 2021, #ISKP reported 19 times as many ops as it did in June 2020.
This month, it's reported just 11 attacks and been totally inactive for 11 days—that’s three times less activity compared with last month and the longest period of inactivity since October last year.
This month, it's reported just 11 attacks and been totally inactive for 11 days—that’s three times less activity compared with last month and the longest period of inactivity since October last year.
3. #ISKP’s recovery in #Afghanistan began in June last year. This follows its being declared ‘defeated’ at the hands of the #ANDSF at the end of 2019 (with help from the #Taliban).
Since then, its ascendancy has been fairly steady, as noted here:
Since then, its ascendancy has been fairly steady, as noted here:
Given recent events in #Afghanistan & my focus on that country since 2008, I’ve been engaging in a lot of professional reflection of late. I'm going to share some results of that in this (long) THREAD. 1/n
To do this, I went back and re-read everything I’ve written publicly on #Afghanistan over the past two years, as well as a few pertinent older pieces. I’ll post links to these articles as I go. 2/n
I’ll start w/this article I wrote in @WarOnTheRocks in 2016. In it, I described how the #Taliban were steadily encroaching on key rural areas of #Afghanistan & how the #ANDSF were struggling to stop them. 3/n
warontherocks.com/2016/12/afghan…
warontherocks.com/2016/12/afghan…
NEW: #Afghanistan - "We are continuing air operations" per @USArmy MajGen Hank Taylor, calling it "a Herculean effort"
Says there will be +4,000 in #Kabul by the end of Tuesday
Says there will be +4,000 in #Kabul by the end of Tuesday
I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"
Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n
Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n
In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*
2/n
2/n
We also know that, despite what else they may say, western countries have concluded the collapse of Kabul is at least possible, if not probable & imminent
3/n
apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
3/n
apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
As an analyst, I do my best to look at the available data & devise analytic frameworks to organize & make logical & transparent sense of it. This is, however, not math. The answers aren't firm. There are no scientific laws on which to rely. Much has to be assumed. 1/n
I do my best to keep track of my assumptions, to revisit them, to test them, & to gauge the risk associated with them being wrong. In this case, I assumed the #ANDSF would recognize that its advantages were in defending the cities. That they could dig in around them. 2/n
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
MR. KIRBY: I have seen lots of press reporting this morning about assessments coming out of #Afghanistan. I know you're all interested in that, let me tell you, I am not going to talk specifically about intelligence assessments one way or the other... 2/n
...We continue to monitor the situation in #Afghanistan closely. We are mindful of the deteriorating security situation. And our focus right now remains on supporting the Afghan forces in the field where and when feasible we can from the air, as well as completing ... 3/n
#BREAKING :The last remaining #ANDSF and commandos base (PRT) in #Ghazni capital also surrendered...
Ghazni PRT
Ghazni PRT
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec Q: The air strikes that the U.S. has done thus far over the past three or four weeks with some regularity, how much difference have those air strikes made on the ground, in terms of the battlefield? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec & secondly, I'd like to ask you about @SecDef's thinking on this question about the utility of limited air strikes in #Afghanistan. So as you get to Aug 31st, what is his view about, do air strikes alone by the U.S. make a decisive – can they make a decisive difference? 3/n
1/n
TheTalibanAttackOnSalma DamFailed!#Terrorist TalibanAttackedThe #Salma DamInHeratProvinceTo Destroy ItLastNight.But, FortunatelyTheyHave SufferedHeavyCasualties AndFledTheAreaAsResultOf Counter-Attacks of #ANDSF.
Fawad Aman/August4,2021 (@FawadAman2)
TheTalibanAttackOnSalma DamFailed!#Terrorist TalibanAttackedThe #Salma DamInHeratProvinceTo Destroy ItLastNight.But, FortunatelyTheyHave SufferedHeavyCasualties AndFledTheAreaAsResultOf Counter-Attacks of #ANDSF.
Fawad Aman/August4,2021 (@FawadAman2)
2/n
@PMaurerICRC
Apeal to all the Human Species organisms. Members of Cosmopolitan human society of the world!
Destruction is very easy, doesn't take much time.
But construction & development?
It took more than6000years
After civilization to provide Human Species,from food
toWiFi
@PMaurerICRC
Apeal to all the Human Species organisms. Members of Cosmopolitan human society of the world!
Destruction is very easy, doesn't take much time.
But construction & development?
It took more than6000years
After civilization to provide Human Species,from food
toWiFi
3/n
Does everyone get benefits?
That is the reason,Why crimes?I will explain to you, logically
Why we are Life & not Organisms.
What brain of the organism thinks you are organism,has
legs to walk or run,May be at the speed of 5km/hr if uses Bicycle, your speed enhanced at 15km/hr
Does everyone get benefits?
That is the reason,Why crimes?I will explain to you, logically
Why we are Life & not Organisms.
What brain of the organism thinks you are organism,has
legs to walk or run,May be at the speed of 5km/hr if uses Bicycle, your speed enhanced at 15km/hr
.@SIGARHQ released its latest quarterly report on #Afghanistan today. Some key points in this THREAD.
1/n
sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyr…
1/n
sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyr…
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: Earlier today, you know there was a transition of authority ceremony held at Resolute Support HQ in Kabul, #Afghanistan, marking the transition of command authorities from GEN Scott Miller to the commander of @CENTCOM, Gen Frank McKenzie... 2/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM ...As the secretary approved earlier this month, and as we outlined to you on July 2nd, Gen McKenzie will now lead the US mission in #Afghanistan, and that's focused on 4 things: 1) protecting our diplomatic presence in country; 2) enabling the safe operation of... 3/n
A number of people have been asking my thoughts on recent developments in #Afghanistan. Now that I’m back from a week of sandcastle building, a THREAD to that effect. 1/n
1st, a few thoughts on recent #Taliban gains. That the TB are suddenly gaining ground in rural areas shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone. eg, I predicted the group would have a slight military adv post-US withdrawal in a @CTCWP paper back in JAN: ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s… 2/n
@CTCWP The #Taliban have—for years—been employing a strategy of capturing rural areas IOT generate position & resources to threaten more populated areas, as we @CNA_org described in our independent threat assessment for Congress back in 2013 (cna.org/cna_files/pdf/…). 3/n
Comments on #Afghanistan from @PentagonPresSec's #DOD press conference late last week in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: A couple things on the president speech on #Afghanistan. Can you say what, if any, progress DOD is making on the over-the-horizon negotiations? & can you talk a little bit about the #Taliban and what progress they've made on district takeovers? 2/n
How far do you think they've gotten? I've heard over a hundred. At this point can you talk a little bit about what the situation is on the ground with the #Taliban?
MR. KIRBY: So, on over-the-horizon capabilities, we continue to explore additional OTH capabilities... 3/n
MR. KIRBY: So, on over-the-horizon capabilities, we continue to explore additional OTH capabilities... 3/n
Comments on #Afghanistan in today's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: Considering that @CENTCOM is saying they're not going to provide % any longer on #Afghanistan troop & equip withdrawal, I was wondering if there's any progress on getting us either DLA or some type of briefing on some of the things that can be discussed about the w/drawal? 2/n
And my second Q is has @SecDef had any discussions with #Turkey about security at the airport in #Afghanistan and do you see negotiations progressing on that issue? 3/n
I’ve gotten a lot of questions recently about how the #ANDSF might fare after the US withdraws from #Afghanistan. I’m going to put some thoughts on that in this THREAD. 1/n
First, a recap, as I’ve written about this before. In JAN, I published this net assessment of the #ANDSF vs the #Taliban, in which I concluded the latter would have a slight military advantage after US advisors left. 2/n ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s…
1. Most #Afghanistan analysis of late has been preoccupied with the strategic inroads being made by the #Taliban.
Meanwhile, #IS’s affiliate in #Afghanistan, #ISKP, has been experiencing a dramatic resurgence in the country, one that has gone almost entirely under the radar.
Meanwhile, #IS’s affiliate in #Afghanistan, #ISKP, has been experiencing a dramatic resurgence in the country, one that has gone almost entirely under the radar.
2. Yesterday, #ISKP reported 3 attacks, killing and injuring 44. The day before, it claimed to have killed/injured 20.
(While devastating, these ops are small compared to the 4 biggest of 2020, in which more people were killed than all other attacks combined since Jan '20.)
(While devastating, these ops are small compared to the 4 biggest of 2020, in which more people were killed than all other attacks combined since Jan '20.)
ICYMI, last week I published an article with @Diplomat_APAC titled “Will #Afghanistan Collapse When the US Withdraws?” Since the article is behind a paywall, I’ll summarize some of my main points in this THREAD. 1/n
thediplomat.com/2021/05/will-a…
thediplomat.com/2021/05/will-a…
For the article, I was asked to explore what might happen in #Afghanistan in the year after the US withdraws. To do so, I found it instructive to revisit the years immediately following the Soviet withdrawal & to compare/contrast to the situation today. 2/n
I’ve seen people making superficial comparisons of these two eras to predict impending doom, but a detailed comparison reveals both striking similarities and distinct differences between the two, which should inform our thinking about the future of #Afghanistan. 3/n
Comments by @PentagonPresSec on #Afghanistan at yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
