Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #2018Elections
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THREAD.
1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
If #MuellerInvestigation can’t show collusion, an obstruction charge won’t stick. #Republican argument: Not a crime to stop a witch hunt. The better path if no collusion? Make #2018Elections a vote about whether #Trump is the best we can do. Then move on. latimes.com/politics/la-na…
Meanwhile, #Democrats would be wise to acknowledge politicization of senior #FBI & #CIA officials (esp Comey & Co’s handling of #Dossier, #Strzok fiasco, etc) and own the illegality of #ClintonEmails. The credibility earned would allow voters to better hear an inspired Dem pitch.
The #Democrat’s pitch? “We’re the adults who can fix what’s broken.” Otherwise, it’s just, “At least we’re not #Trump!” Americans are tired of hearing that argument. We want inspired, honest leadership, and a balanced path fwd. Start w/ #TermLimits. foxnews.com/opinion/2016/1…
